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No.Yes, we should all use your subjective decision-making skills that concluded it was a bad idea to re-sign Duncan. Good call
So Lebron is worth 70 mil or soWell, it's not fair to base how much Ginobili is worth by comparing him to Duncan making $10 million per season. By most estimations, Ginobili being on the team has been good for ~6 additional wins for the Spurs this season. In the NBA, wins are worth ~$2 million. That means Ginobili has been worth ~$12 million this season. If he stays healthy the rest of the way (or a majority of it), he'll reach that ~$14 million mark.
For the record, by the same math, Duncan has been worth $19 million already this season (@ the talk that Duncan shouldn't be re-signed for more than $6-8M).
Parker is sitting at a cool $24.4 million in value this season. Parker's contract in hindsight was a great move by the Spurs. They signed him at his lowest point to a very reasonable deal. Props to Parker too for accepting it and keeping the core together.
but in all fairness, all the talk about player value and value of wins needs to be adjusted based on our team budget. While Parker and Duncan by your estimate are worth over 40 mil combined (and counting) Holts pockets wouldn't run deep enough to sustain our team.
with a salary cap near 60 million, teams at or below the cap max out at 30 wins by those numbers
Last edited by spurraider21; 03-05-2013 at 09:34 PM.
No.Yes, we should all use your subjective decision-making skills that concluded it was a bad idea to re-sign Duncan. Good call
I love the use of advanced stats in basketball - most of my comments come after studying them. What I don't like is some of their application - as in the case of Manu Ginobili.
Any advanced stat that says a player Ginobili's age receiving 14M as fair and justifiable is beyond silly to me when you look at the reality of the market place plus other factors (age, MPG, injuries...).
As of today maybe. but they can make the space by making trades,etc can't they?
again, I'm sure Manu can command 10 mil easily when the time comes. ANd yes, GM's being historically stupid at throwing money is a valid point in this argument.
Ginobili wouldn't hesitate on moving to Europe if he feels like the Spurs and/or other NBA teams are lowballing him.
I agree with Bruno, timvp. Just as there is a difference between what Ginobili is worth and what fans hope he accepts, there is too a difference between what Ginobili is worth and what he'd get on the open market. I can understand your argument about advanced metrics, but I think it shows how much bang the Spurs (or any team) would get for their buck by signing Ginobili/Duncan. Kidd and Nash (in Phoenix) were re-signing with their teams. Those teams already had a reason to keep their players, whether it was to remain compe ive or to keep a fan favorite. It's a lot harder to see a team with cap space (which, besides the Spurs and Hawks, will most likely be a bad team) signing an older player on a straight deal. The best chance of that happening would probably be a sign-and-trade like you suggested, but even in that case, I find it hard to see how most teams would value Ginobili as highly as the Spurs do.
In Kidd's case, he also played 80 or more games in the four season prior to getting his deal. Even though Kidd was old, he didn't have Ginobili's injury concerns. Nash had played 75 or more games for the last eight seasons leading up to his 2009 deal. Meanwhile, in the last eight years, Ginobili's only reached that many games four times, and only once in the last four years. (He can't do it this season, and he missed 32 games last season.) I think it's entirely fair to say teams would shy way from giving him big bucks this off-season. For the Spurs, it's possible that Ginobili would build in options in his contract to protect the Spurs in case he decides to retire in the middle of his deal. I doubt he'd do that for another team.
So yes, I don't think Ginobili's market value is as high as you think it is. I don't think Duncan's was, either. Neither are players that teams can use as building blocks, and stop-gaps/mentors usually don't usually get premium deals on the open market. You add in that most of the teams that could offer them a contract like you theorized would be bad teams, and I could see both retiring rather than having to change cities to be in bad situations for their last years. Like it or not, the Spurs have more leverage than it may appear.
EDIT: Kidd averaged 8.5 win shares in the four years leading up to his deal, while Nash averaged 11.5. By comparison, Ginobili has only averaged 6.5 (not counting this season). Even by your metric, it's hard to say Ginobili deserves as much as those two got.
Last edited by Chinook; 03-05-2013 at 11:26 PM.
Interestingly enough, Nash and Kidd got about $1 Million per year for every win-share they averaged in the four years prior to their deal (Kidd $8.33M to 8.5WS and Nash $11M to 11.5WS). Looking at that, Ginobili seems to be worth a two-year, $13 Million contract. I think the Spurs will do $7 Million, but by no means that is well below his market value.
Last edited by Chinook; 03-05-2013 at 11:36 PM.
7 Millions sounds fair, still way above what any of the scrubs are making.
Bigger question is how much Splitter will get, much more risky situation in that we're likely to overpay or have to let him walk.
Give Manu a contract similar to Timmy's, RC.
A high value contract for two years with the second being a player option.
That way there's cap room for when the 2014/2015 rebuild starts.
wonder what the advanced stats say about that? i'd guess 11ish.
Manu will sign for less than he could get elsewhere,no doubt. He is one of the biggest fan drawing players in the NBA. His popularity is just as strong today as it's always been. If the last two games are anything to go by, he is still responsible for wins as well. I was very happy to hear his Rome interview today, and hear he's not going anywhere. My guess is, whatever they pay him, it will easily be half of the revenue the Spurs would lose if they let him walk. That's actually being conservative. They'll pay him as much as they can while keeping the team as together as possible. Manu's going to want the team to remain strong as much as anyone. As a Spurs fan, I consider myself extremely lucky. As timvp has said, enjoy these times while you can folks!!!
Dallas would be one team. IIRC, only Dirk, Carter and a few rooks are signed for next season (and then become expirings). Mayo is a Player option and Marion has an ETO. They have nearly $21 million coming off their books.
Atlanta is another team that will have cap space next year. Only $22M committed. It will largely depend on what happens with Josh Smith, I suspect.
Utah could be another destination. They have their biggest 3 contracts coming off the books at the end of the season.
At any rate, his market value is certainly over $6m.
I still think Manu would rather end his career with the Spurs and will take less money to make it happen. But there are possibly some other destinations out there for him.
What he said!
I think if Manu for some reason didn't sign for the spurs he would chase a championship not money
How about Houston signing him as a sixth man (for $10 mil * 2) and effectively get two Ginobilis (the older original and the superstar wannabe) to play for them? They could round off their Lin, Harden, Parsons, Asik, Ginobili core with a good PF/C. An amnestied Pau Gasol perhaps?
Ergo, not true that there exists no market for Ginobili at a high price outside Spurs, if my limited knowledge of salaries is right.
Not really, they can't.
Creating cap space through trades is damn hard to do and very costly in assets.
These 3 teams likely won't go after Ginobili with multiyear contract at around $10M per year.
Dallas might be interested with Ginobili at $10M but for only one year. In 2014-2015, they won't have a single player under contract. I'm sure Cuban won't like to lower that cap space for a a 37 years old Ginobili. Cuban might dream of a Heat like scenario.
Utah and Atlanta are so-so teams with a young core. Adding an aging Ginobili isn't really appealing to them. He might be a good plan B or C if they don't get their coveted free agents but, like with Dallas, they won't offer him a multiyear contract to keep a shot at the 2014 free agents.
re-sign him until he wants too. but I hope he stays reasonable and don't asks much more than 8 per year.
The hypotheticals are ridiculous. Manu isn't getting $10M/yr and he isn't going anywhere else.
Were all the veteran posters just bored yesterday? Not per par, imo, tbh.
Considering that there will be large cap holds for Manu and Jack, there's little danger of SA actually being under the cap.
What teams offered Tim $10M?
three years at $9M, $8M, $7M with the third year only partially guaranteed would work for me.
Bruno just hit 16,000 posts. Most of which were pretty damn solid posts too. Keep it up. I always pay attention when you post something.
The Spurs already gave him a max contract, his next contract will be a 2 years 12-15 millions tops.
Thanks. Just trying to understand the business side better, which frankly I lack.
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