2013 Amnesty Candidate: Pau Gasol

[Chinook]

After looking more closely at numbers, Gasol 15% trade kicker should be almost fully, if not fully canceled. A trade kicker can put a player above the max salary and Gasol is just under it.

It doesn't change that trading Gasol without taking back a lot of salary will be damn difficult to do for the Lakers. I just don't see teams wanting Gasol with his $20M salary.

Gasol isn't THAT close to the max. He's been in the league long enough to get 35 percent of the cap. If the cap is at $62 Million next season, his max is at $21.7 Million. So he can pretty much fit his entire kicker in.

[Bruno]

Gasol isn't THAT close to the max. He's been in the league long enough to get 35 percent of the cap. If the cap is at $62 Million next season, his max is at $21.7 Million. So he can pretty much fit his entire kicker in.

http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q16

They use a different cap calculation to determine the maximum salaries, which is based on 42.14% of projected BRI rather than 44.74%. In 2005 the sides negotiated a different formula for setting the salary cap but not maximum salaries, so the two became decoupled, and this continued in the 2011 agreement. For this reason the maximum salaries are not actually 25%, 30% or 35% of the cap, and instead are a slightly lower amount.

Gasol salary for next season is $19,285,850.
Fro reference, the max salary this year is $19,136,250.

[Chinook]

http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q16



Gasol salary for next season is $19,285,850.
Fro reference, the max salary this year is $19,136,250.

Indeed, you are correct. Damn them for making that idiosyncrasy . Thanks for the correction.

Still, Gasol at $20 Million may as well be Gasol at $22 Million.

[Spursfanfromafar]

You don't understand how much a player who is well on the wrong side of 30, on a team that has no chance to ring, will cost. The FULL tax penalty kicks in this summer. LA is in the top bracket of > $15M over the tax and they are a repeat offender. That means for every $1 they are over the tax, they have to pay $4.25. Gasol makes $18.71M. Figure out the tax on top of THAT. If they were compe ive, that would be one thing. They're not. Even getting Kobe back, they will struggle to get into the top half of the Western Conference draw next year. They're not very ing good. Nash isn't injured, he's 40 and will not get much better or healthier than he is now.

He's unhappy, and a terrible fit for D'Antoni's system. They could get what D'Antoni uses him for, elbow jumpers and rebounding, from someone a lot cheaper.

I completely agree. The question is not whether the Lakers will use the amnesty provision, but rather who would use it for.

The most logical - simply from a point of rationality - use would be, on Kobe Bryant. He is injured, suffers from a difficult injury to recover from, and he makes way too much money. Amnestying him will help the Lakers cut the most from the presumptive "losses" because of the luxury taxes. But logic isn't something that will work here, simply because it will mean a massive loss of image for the Lakers apropos its fan base if it even thinks of letting Bryant go, even for a season.

The second logical case is that of Gasol. This too would save them big dollars and I think that the Laker fans have reconciled to a loss of Gasol for sometime now. The trouble is this decision will be tied up to what Howard would do in free agency. It remains to be seen, but general history tells us that a) Howard will not forgo a $30million-extra-on the table deal. b) Howard's advisers will tell him that he would have to grin and bear a bad Lakers season for about one year, but the offseason of 2014 and Lakers' cap space should yield a better era for them and he could lead a new dynasty. In all likelihood therefore, Howard should be back. That makes Gasol's amnesty very likely.

The other option is to amnesty Ron Artest and try to sell Gasol for parts, with the proviso that these parts don't cost cap space from 2014 onwards. It is going to be extremely difficult for the Lakers to do so. But we never know, there must be some stupid GM out there willing to bite the bullet. Take, someone like Ernie Grunfeld perhaps. Will he for e.g. exchange Okafor + Ariza (both on expirings) for Gasol to add to a crew of Wall + Beal + Nene? (Mind it though that Okafor has a ETO and Ariza has a player option and they can be traded only after the former decides not to exercise, while the latter does the opposite - the likelihood of both being high). [Just for trade due to requirements' sake though, both Okafor & Ariza dont make sense in a D'Antoni squad].

Amnestying Artest will save the Lakers, what, $30 million (right, Bruno?) unlike the $75 million or so by doing the same on Gasol. But for the big money Lakers, I think there is some possibility that they could take a half a hit instead of a full hit (even if it makes sense to parry the hit entirely).

By looking at all scenarios, amnestying Gasol seems the most optimal option that the Lakers could pursue. And that would be a delight if it was the case.

[exstatic]

I completely agree. The question is not whether the Lakers will use the amnesty provision, but rather who would use it for.

The most logical - simply from a point of rationality - use would be, on Kobe Bryant. He is injured, suffers from a difficult injury to recover from, and he makes way too much money. Amnestying him will help the Lakers cut the most from the presumptive "losses" because of the luxury taxes. But logic isn't something that will work here, simply because it will mean a massive loss of image for the Lakers apropos its fan base if it even thinks of letting Bryant go, even for a season.

The second logical case is that of Gasol. This too would save them big dollars and I think that the Laker fans have reconciled to a loss of Gasol for sometime now. The trouble is this decision will be tied up to what Howard would do in free agency. It remains to be seen, but general history tells us that a) Howard will not forgo a $30million-extra-on the table deal. b) Howard's advisers will tell him that he would have to grin and bear a bad Lakers season for about one year, but the offseason of 2014 and Lakers' cap space should yield a better era for them and he could lead a new dynasty. In all likelihood therefore, Howard should be back. That makes Gasol's amnesty very likely.

The other option is to amnesty Ron Artest and try to sell Gasol for parts, with the proviso that these parts don't cost cap space from 2014 onwards. It is going to be extremely difficult for the Lakers to do so. But we never know, there must be some stupid GM out there willing to bite the bullet. Take, someone like Ernie Grunfeld perhaps. Will he for e.g. exchange Okafor + Ariza (both on expirings) for Gasol to add to a crew of Wall + Beal + Nene? (Mind it though that Okafor has a ETO and Ariza has a player option and they can be traded only after the former decides not to exercise, while the latter does the opposite - the likelihood of both being high). [Just for trade due to requirements' sake though, both Okafor & Ariza dont make sense in a D'Antoni squad].

Amnestying Artest will save the Lakers, what, $30 million (right, Bruno?) unlike the $75 million or so by doing the same on Gasol. But for the big money Lakers, I think there is some possibility that they could take a half a hit instead of a full hit (even if it makes sense to parry the hit entirely).

By looking at all scenarios, amnestying Gasol seems the most optimal option that the Lakers could pursue. And that would be a delight if it was the case.

To me, the kicker is that the way Gasol's being used, he doesn't help them. With him, they'll finish 5-8 in the WC. Without him, they'll finish 5-8 in the WC. In D'Antoni's system, he makes no difference to this team.

[Bruno]

Amnestying Artest will save the Lakers, what, $30 million (right, Bruno?) unlike the $75 million or so by doing the same on Gasol.

Yep, that's basically the numbers. I had estimated $25M for Artest and $70M for Gasol earlier this season but I was including a player signed to a min contract to replace the amnestied player which lowered the savings.

Saying that, something to consider that can change considerably the equation is the revenue sharing system between franchises. Lakers are giving a part of their revenues to smaller franchises and their contribution is limited to 30% of their profits. Amnestying Artest instead of Gasol will basically raise their profits by $45M but up to the 30% of that will end up being given to small market teams through the revenue sharing system.

At the end, I'm not sure of what are the exact financial consequences behind all the possible amnesty scenarios.

[CGD]

So if Pau becomes available and the Spurs make a play hypothetically, what does that mean for Splitter? Is he essentially out?

[TD 21]

If you think they're keeping him for like a +$80M price tag to finish between 5 an 8 in the WC you don't.

You're making the classic mistake people make on sports message boards, which is presuming what will be done is what you think should be done, rather than how the subject in question is known to operate.

And on top of that, you lack reading comprehension. I didn't say they'd be keeping him necessarily, I said they're not amnestying him.

No your just wrong.

So I'm wrong because I dismissed something that Bruno said?

This is the part where you repeat the same answer and pretend it has nothing to do with that, even though it has everything to.

I get what you're saying. But it's hard enough to justify Gasol at $18 Million; it's impossible (in my opinion) to justify him at $22 Million. Committing more than a third of your cap to a declining player AND giving up assets? It seems unlikely to me, especially since if the Lakers attempt to trade him, they won't be able to keep him.

The only team that might do that is Dallas. Everyone else would just re-sign their free agents.

Committing whatever the exact number turns out to be for ONE YEAR, though. The Mavs check off every imaginable box: Committed to spending, desperate to make something resembling an impact move, a gaping hole in the middle and they'll be hard pressed to do better.

Again, the assets would be minimal. I'm talking about some combination of Crowder, Cunningham, James, the rights to Koponen, Calathes and draft picks (not this year's 1st, which will be mid round, albeit in a weak draft).

And why wouldn't the Hawks be interested for some combination of Jenkins, Scott and draft picks? Again, we're talking one year, so they could just roll their cap space over into '14, when the free agent class is better anyway.

[exstatic]

So if Pau becomes available and the Spurs make a play hypothetically, what does that mean for Splitter? Is he essentially out?

I don't think they make a play unless Splitter gets an offer they don't want to match.

[exstatic]

You're making the classic mistake people make on sports message boards, which is presuming what will be done is what you think should be done, rather than how the subject in question is known to operate.

And on top of that, you lack reading comprehension. I didn't say they'd be keeping him necessarily, I said they're not amnestying him.

Your mistake is not understanding the severity of the tax penalties this year, and that no one has EVER operated under these cir stances before. Your whole premise is based on past Laker actions under the dollar for dollar penalty, the good old days. Those days are as dead as Jacob Marley.

[Spursfanfromafar]

So if Pau becomes available and the Spurs make a play hypothetically, what does that mean for Splitter? Is he essentially out?

If Gasol comes to play for the Spurs, it would be an embarrassment of riches for the squad and an embarrassment that we should love to have. Of course, Splitter will be re-signed, he represents the future. Gasol would be a valuable veteran add, probably only for one season and will be the third big, who could also possibly start with Splitter and giving Duncan some well earned extra rest in his final seasons.

Wouldn't necessarily make the Spurs instant contenders against the Heat, but a Duncan-Splitter-Gasol frontline would surely make the Heat to think twice before continuing their unorthodox go-small-but-strong approach with their reliance on superb wing play alone.

[Cklbmk]

I don't think they make a play unless Splitter gets an offer they don't want to match.

I would let Splitter walk for 3~ years of Gasol and Timmy

Close games with Tony Manu Kawhi Pau Tim GG

[SpursBills]

I would let Splitter walk for 3~ years of Gasol and Timmy

Close games with Tony Manu Kawhi Pau Tim GG

I disagree with this - I think splitter is essential for the future because he is the only big mobile enough to cover quicker fours. He is also our best defender against the PNR. A Gasol-Duncan lineup, while potent offensively, would probably get eaten up defensively by PNR reliant teams, which is what the league is transitioning to nowadays anyway.

[Richie]

Pau is a horrible PnR defender, and thats something we exploited time and time again in the last few weeks.

That said, I'd throw everything we can at him if he is amnestied. Would 10m be enough? Probably not.

[CGD]

^ The amnesty thing is neat in that Pau can choose where he WANTS to play (contender v. non-contender). Lakers are picking up the tab next year. Spurs can give him a one year deal if he really wants to test the market afterward, or a two year deal with a player option in the 2nd year. If Pau wants years (most likely at his age) I wonder if the Spurs could get creative with the contract offer -- low salary in year one to leverage the fact that the Lakers are picking up most of it, and then offer him more money in years 2 and 3.

[CGD]

The other thing to keep in mind is that Pau has been very injured over the past two years. Could lower the asking price?

[Richie]

^ The amnesty thing is neat in that Pau can choose where he WANTS to play (contender v. non-contender). Lakers are picking up the tab next year. Spurs can give him a one year deal if he really wants to test the market afterward, or a two year deal with a player option in the 2nd year. If Pau wants years (most likely at his age) I wonder if the Spurs could get creative with the contract offer -- low salary in year one to leverage the fact that the Lakers are picking up most of it, and then offer him more money in years 2 and 3.

Pretty sure this isn't true. The player will go to the team who makes the highest bid.

[TD 21]

Your mistake is not understanding the severity of the tax penalties this year, and that no one has EVER operated under these cir stances before. Your whole premise is based on past Laker actions under the dollar for dollar penalty, the good old days. Those days are as dead as Jacob Marley.

I understand them just fine. Once again, you're wrong. My whole premise is based on the principal.

[exstatic]

^ The amnesty thing is neat in that Pau can choose where he WANTS to play (contender v. non-contender). Lakers are picking up the tab next year. Spurs can give him a one year deal if he really wants to test the market afterward, or a two year deal with a player option in the 2nd year. If Pau wants years (most likely at his age) I wonder if the Spurs could get creative with the contract offer -- low salary in year one to leverage the fact that the Lakers are picking up most of it, and then offer him more money in years 2 and 3.

No he CAN'T. It's a friggin auction and whoever bids the highest on his contract gets him.

[CGD]

^ Yup y'all are right. I'm owning it. I completely forgot about the procedure. Wishful thinking. Wonder what the winning bid would have to be.

[exstatic]

^ Yup y'all are right. I'm owning it. I completely forgot about the procedure. Wishful thinking. Wonder what the winning bid would have to be.

He's overpaid at what he's making, but at $10M, he's a nice 1 year rental. Ending contracts for 2014 will also be at a premium, since that's going to be a big FA year. Teams with space this summer, a relatively weak FA class, could use Gasol to "kick the can down the road" a year and have space next summer.

[Mel_13]

Bruno,

How about an Amnesty candidate thread for Artest? He's at least as likely as Gasol to be amnestied, and there is a role for him to fill on the Spurs.

[mudyez]

He will never be a Spur, but only imagine a Duncan/Gasol frontcourt makes me .

[Libri]

The Spurs would have a legitimate twin towers. It won't happen.

[bluebellmaniac]

He's been contaminated by the Laker virus. Once that happens, it's pretty much over. Look at what happened to Bynum when he left (And by left I mean shoved out the door). If Pau leaves, then his foot problems will suddenly explode and his career would probably be over... A hobbled 7 footer with the receiving team screwed on his salary commitment. Take a pass on him.