Spurs are NBA's "luckiest" team via ESPN

[Bambililos]

Exactly. I'd think the lucky teams are the ones that avoid injuries. Doesn't apply to us.

[mrjap2x]

Probably a good example of numbers not telling the whole story.

[mudyez]

"They're outperforming our projections, so they're lucky." = "Our projections are pretty poor, so paying insiders are very unlucky!"

[ambchang]

So model predictions are reality, what happens in real life that deviates from the model is dumb luck?

In other news, ESPN is suffering from bad luck because their models tell them 100% of the readers should find them impartial, and yet only 0% actually did.

[Whisky Dog]

ESPN bias is hard at work

[Dancelot]

It's karma, you know, from all the class.

[mookie2001]

I think this is fantasy football influenced here

the season is almost over, rankings and projections go out the window

[Obstructed_View]

Those stupid projections are the reason Steve Nash stole two MVP trophies.

[TD 21]

Neil Payne is usually good but that's one of the dumbest articles I've ever seen. I don't think "lucky" is the term that fits his model. "Lucky" in the NBA would be a team that wins a lot of close games or has a great record with a poor point differential (like the Warriors who are 39-30 despite hovering around a 0 point differential all season).

The Spurs are "lucky" because Parker, Duncan, Diaw (?!?!) and Splitter have been a lot better than expected? So because Parker keeps working on his game year in and year out, Duncan works all summer prepping his knee, Diaw actually tries now that he's not on the worst team in the league and Splitter has blossomed in the starting lineup, the Spurs are "lucky"? Yeah, no, that makes no sense.

If Payne wants to say the Spurs have "maximized their talents" more than any team in the league, that would make a lot more sense. I suspect using the term "lucky" is just an ESPN troll job for Insider page views.

Good post.

He claims those three have been "better than expected", but according to who? Him or some other stat geek who came up with their projected PER's and thought they'd be worse than they are because of their age/mileage (save for Splitter; who I'm not sure why he thinks has been better than expected . . . top 10 WS/48?) And then instead of admitting he/they were wrong, he attempts to pass it off as them "playing a lot better than expected". Unbelievable.

[kobyz]

i don't like the use of the word luck in sport, to me luck could consider an impact only when someone is winning thanks to bad job of referees or things like this.

[Obstructed_View]

The closest thing I remember to luck was when Phoenix stole game 1 from the Spurs in the playoffs with two three pointers at the buzzer, one banked in by a rookie named Amare to send it to overtime.

[pgardn]

Yeah.


It was really lucky we had to face Shaq and Kobe in two out of their 3 Championship seasons in the playoffs.


Then later of course, we help put that duo to sleep once they got sick of each other.


What a lucky bunch of years facing those two.

[tim_duncan_fan]

It's not luck. It's holy power.

Thank you, Braced God!

[-21-]

Goodbye classy, o lucky!

Terrible, terrible article... Seriously WTF?!?!

[cd98]

Luck is where preparation meets opportunity. When the Spurs have had the opportunities come, they've nailed it most of the time because they have a great organization top to bottom, players, coaches, development, scouting, executives, etc.

They do more with less than any franchise in sports.

[Obstructed_View]

I'd be much more inclined to define luck as getting Memphis to trade Pau Gasol to you for next to nothing and getting Philly to give up their team and their future in order to help you turn Andrew Bynum's broken corpse into Dwight Howard.

[-21-]

I'd be much more inclined to define luck as getting Memphis to trade Pau Gasol to you for next to nothing and getting Philly to give up their team and their future in order to help you turn Andrew Bynum's broken corpse into Dwight Howard.

That's true.

[ambchang]

Why draft at 29 if you know know one else is going to draft him and I guess Manu skills are a fluke. All the plays he made where just flukes. He has no skill all the big shots that he has made were just luck.

Please read up on how Ginobili developed since being drafted in 1999. Pop mentioned that he never though Ginobili would be this good.

[cd98]

I'd be much more inclined to define luck as getting Memphis to trade Pau Gasol to you for next to nothing and getting Philly to give up their team and their future in order to help you turn Andrew Bynum's broken corpse into Dwight Howard.

I'd define it as insider training. It would be luck if trades like that happened for LA once in a long time, but the get those kind of BS trades all the time. See Howard trade.