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Except on the perimeter we'll have to deal with the likes of Tony Allen (who did a commendable job on Durant) and Tayshaun Prince.
Spurs will be in good shape to break 80-85 let alone 90.
But man do I want them to f*ck up Memphis and get revenge!
The Memphis Grizzlies are better-built for the playoffs than the San Antonio Spurs are and should be favored to win a seven-game series between the two teams.
Except on the perimeter we'll have to deal with the likes of Tony Allen (who did a commendable job on Durant) and Tayshaun Prince.
Spurs will be in good shape to break 80-85 let alone 90.
But man do I want them to f*ck up Memphis and get revenge!
Of course you do. That shot was by far Neal's most memorable moment. What you forget is that he shot 17/46 (39%) from the field and 5/19 (26%) from three for the series. A cold-shooting Neal is an absolute liability on both ends of the floor.
This is the most misunderstood stat in basketball. 33% shooting on 3's is the same as 50% shooting on 2pters.
Example: A team makes 4 of 12 (33%) 3pters and scores 12 pts. The other team makes 6 of 12 (50%) 2pt shots and scores 12 points. If you look at just %'s, you naturally think I'd rather shoot 50% on 2's, but the 33% 3 pt shooting has scored just as many points in the same number of shots.
31.3% on 3pters nets you the same number of points as shooting nearly 47% on 2pters. And if the Grizzlies never took a 3 and still shot 47% we'll be in trouble, especially with the level their defense is playing at lately.
Pack the paint and dare them to shoot the 3 is not the answer. Pondexter and Bayless can hurt us from there. Conley is not shooting it well lately (28%), but he was a 36% 3pt shooter during the regular season, so he could easily heat back up. He always seems to play with a hard on against Tony Parker. Those 3 guys need to be guarded at the 3pt line, and we can't let Tony Allen get shots in the corner.
No, it isn't. Boiling down shots to the amount of points made by them is ignorant of the rest of the game.
A missed two, especially from up close, can often yield offensive rebounds for the team shooting. These can translate into easy buckets. Theoretically you could shoot 20% for the game and score every trip down the court. It's a huge exaggeration, but I'm just speaking to probabilities here.
A missed three, on the other hand, is much more damaging. It leads to letting the other team get out in transition. Transition points are nearly always easier and convert at a higher clip than those from a set offense. So yes, 31% from 3 might be the same as 47% from 2, but you have to understand that all the missed threes will lead to a much higher FG% for the Spurs.
Taking stats point blank like that often leads to a lot of holes in the analysis of a game, so you need to contextualize it.
We're a better defensive team than the Thunder, especially when they don't have Westbrook.31.3% on 3pters nets you the same number of points as shooting nearly 47% on 2pters. And if the Grizzlies never took a 3 and still shot 47% we'll be in trouble, especially with the level their defense is playing at lately.
I really doubt we'll see Parker on Conley. He might start there, but Green or even Leonard could switch over to limit his dribble drive penetration, unless Parker is really healthy and able to stay with him around screens. Allen is a hole on offense and Prince is even worse, so it honestly boils down to 1) limiting Conley's ability to score consistently and 2) having some kind of parameter on Zach Randolph to control him. Obviously he's going to score a lot, but we need a body that he can't just bump out of the way for easy points. I'm hoping that's Diaw or Splitter with Duncan getting some minutes on him for different looks.Pack the paint and dare them to shoot the 3 is not the answer. Pondexter and Bayless can hurt us from there. Conley is not shooting it well lately (28%), but he was a 36% 3pt shooter during the regular season, so he could easily heat back up. He always seems to play with a hard on against Tony Parker. Those 3 guys need to be guarded at the 3pt line, and we can't let Tony Allen get shots in the corner.
They have two players that essentially hide on offense and we can rotate away from as long as we pressure them a bit. That's a great matchup for us. I could even see Kawhi switching to Conley for limited possessions just so he doesn't figure out any rhythm against Green. Allen and Prince are very limited weapons.
That doesn't make sense. The Spurs should WANT the Grizzlies' perimeter players to shoot the ball. They shouldn't want to let Randolph and Gasol beat up Duncan and Splitter in the post. Doubling forces the bigs to pass and puts pressure on the smalls to make their shots. That's definitely the best way to handle the Grizzlies.
Our good friend Coach Nick hammered Brooks for not doubling until it was too late. He showed how ineffective Memphis is at handling double teams, since the bigs don't trust the smalls to make their shots.
Last edited by Chinook; 05-16-2013 at 01:02 PM.
Those new players also change how the people who were here before match up. And Memphis also had Battier then. We have Splitter now.
1- Our bigs can hold their own, neither M.Gasol/Zbo are too strong/too quick for our bigs(unlike DH)
2- This isn't DH/D leaguers, Fat Gasol/Zbo can pass and if we leave Prince/Conley/Pondexter/Bayless open they will hit shots.
3- Grizzlies offense is , why force them to take good shots?
1-It doesn't matter if they "can hold there own." Gasol and Randolph will wear then down over a long series. Guarding them one on one is asking for foul trouble.
2-Yes it is. Memphis is pretty much the Lakers (offensively) if they were healthy. The same general principles apply. Prince and Allen aren't going to beat you with threes.
3-A three isn't a good shot for them. A Randolph face-up is a good shot for them. A Gasol hook is a good shot for them.
If you go to the second half of that video, you'll see how Memphis handles double teams. Not well.
What's weird is that the Spurs are taking longer than their future opponent to finish their series. We're used to finishing first and waiting while the other series continues...
They were the worst three point shooters during the season. However they do have another option in the post besides Zbo.... Fats Gasol.
1- Of curse it matter, if they can there is no need to double team/their biggest advantage isn't that big
2-Just no, every Memphis player can hit jumpers. Also Prince shot 40% from 3pt in the RS. And if the Lakers had Memphis D they would have won some games.
3- They shot 31% 3s, if we leave them wide open that % will increase. That's what i said, if our bigs can hold their own, there is no need to double team, let them take their shots.
1-It's a bigger advantage that you seem to act like it is. Duncan and Splitter aren't in the best of state right now, while Randolph and Gasol are playing well. I don't think the Spurs should feel comfortable going toe to toe with Memphis in the paint.1- Of curse it matter, if they can there is no need to double team/their biggest advantage isn't that big
2-
3- They shot 31% 3s, if we leave them wide open that % will increase. That's what i said, if our bigs can hold their own, there is no need to double team, let them take their shots.
2-Every player ever can hit jumpers. But Memphis' players aren't three-point shooters. Those are the shots doubling leaves open, not mid range. I said on offense. Why would you bring up the defense at all?
3-First off, doubling doesn't leave shooters wide open. The defense rotates to shooters. You might act like that doesn't make a difference, but it does. Memphis shooting 31 percent from three indicates their shooters aren't good at making even semi-contested shots. Running out on them, even a little, makes a big difference. Also, Memphis' percentage increasing with more-open looks is a given. Even if they shoot 40 percent from three (which they won't), that's still not bad considering that would take away a higher-percentage shot from the bigs. Also, I don't know why you act like Memphis didn't face double teams while still shooting 31 percent from three. They just bricked wide-open shots, too.
I linked the video so you could see why what you're saying isn't correct. Memphis actually doesn't handle doubles as well as you're assuming they will for some reason.
Last edited by Chinook; 05-16-2013 at 03:44 PM.
baynes must be activated, the key to the series should be diaw though.
2- They play 2 bigs but they are completely different teams. Memphis has D to back up, Lakers had just offense, so doubling and giving them wide open shots(to a bad offensive team) isn't the best idea.
3-
2-I said they're pretty much the Lakers on offense. You say, "but they're defense is better." Yes, it is. But that doesn't change the fact that they're like the Lakers (not this season, but pre-SSOL) on offense, which is what we were talking about in the first place.2- They play 2 bigs but they are completely different teams. Memphis has D to back up, Lakers had just offense, so doubling and giving them wide open shots(to a bad offensive team) isn't the best idea.
3-
3-We'll definitely see what happens. Don't get me wrong; I'm not saying double them all the time, or even initially. I'm sure we'll see plenty of both. If Duncan and Splitter hold up well, I think Pop would gladly play Memphis one on one as much as he can. However, if they have to double, it's not as bad as you suggested. That's more what I'm saying.
2- They aren't, DH had to carry the Lakers while the Grizzlies is a balanced scoring team. Also i talked about defense because vs the Lakers we knew that we could score on the other end if they hit 3s, against the Grizzlies isn't that simple.
3- Fair enough, we'll see.
Tony Allen can have any damn jump shot he wants to take. He's on the floor for one reason, and it ain't shooting.
Exactly.
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