Little bit different situation:
* Duncan actually was getting torn apart in that 4thQ by PnR, Splitter was defending much better. He didn't sit Duncan based upon matchups, he sat Duncan and rode Splitter based upon the results that were unfolding. Vogel made the adjustment based upon what MIGHT happen with an extra shooter surrounding Lebron.
* Vogel got a clear as day preview of what would happen on the previous play without Hibbert in the game, and then continued to pocket his shotblocker AGAIN. He overbought George's ability to defend Lebron during regulation & OT - not realizing it was the help defense behind him that deterred Lebron from driving the rim at will.
* Spoelstra (smartly - he's not an amazing coach, but underrated sometimes) surrounded Lebron with shooters to entice Vogel to pull Hibbert and open up the rim for LBJ. If you're a coach in the NBA, you should strongly consider NOT doing what the opponent WANTS you to do.
Some Vogel apologists have pointed out that there was no one for Hibbert to guard without giving up a jumper. 1) With Wade out, that shot was clearly drawn up from Lebron. 2) Put Roy on Bosh shading towards the paint. I'd live with a Bosh 20 foot jumper vs. a Lebron layup every single play. 3) You could zone them and camp Hibbert under the rim, ensuring that it takes a jumper to beat you. Impossible to pick up defensive 3 second call with only 2.2 remaining. 4) Have Hibbert "guard" Norris Cole by not guarding him at all and doubling Lebron. The odds that Cole would take & make a shot in that situation are much closer to none than slim. Odds that Lebron even sees him as a legitimate option to pass the ball to within 2.2 seconds isn't much higher.
Vogel overthought it. He put out the defense most capable of guarding EVERYTHING, but also more likely to give up a high percentage shot. You play your shotblocker, you're giving Miami an opening somewhere, but it's going to be a much lower percentage play than what happened.
Last edited by K-State Spur; 05-23-2013 at 12:27 PM.
Remember, it's not so simple as just anchoring the defense. If Hibbert is on the floor for that last possession, he's either chasing Bosh around the perimeter or camping out in the paint and leaving Bosh wide open. Every man on the floor for the Heat on that play was a shooter.
Vogel must step up and Indy got to win game 2, and if they do fairly easy, they are favorites to win this
There was 2.2 seconds left. Anyone on the arena knows Spo was going to draw a play going to the basket down 1. You have to leave your rim protector on the court. Vogel is a good coach, he just made a mistake (or several mistakes) in crunch time. He'll learn from it
I didn't say Vogel was the best coach, but he's easily top 5, tbh, he runs a very good system with limited personnel..
- No star shot creators(Paul George has trouble creating his own shot consistently, West isn't a star, Hibbert's post game is mediocre)
- poor shooters(22nd in the NBA in 3-point %)
- poor ball-handlers(they don't have any reliable ball-handlers on the roster)
- One of the worst benches in the NBA
Yet they have had deep playoff runs in consecutive years and nearly beat Miami in game 1 in OT..
He made 2 horrible decisions, he deserves blame, butat all the casual fans that don't know about the NBA questioning his ability as a coach, tbh..he's young, he's still learning..
Even the best coaches make errors, obviously..Pop is the best coach in the NBA, yet he spent like 4 years overplaying Matt Bonner, not just for individual key possessions, but for entire seasons(one example)..
I'm not saying Hibbert shouldn't have been on the court, but if Hibbert really were in there just defending the rim instead of covering his man, I'm thinking the Heat would have been happy to have any guy they had on the floor take a wide-open jumper. Then we'd be spending today talking about the defensive breakdown that left Bosh/Allen/Battier wide open for the game winner.
Exactly! And putting Finley/ Udoka on Dirk or Lamar OdomI didn't say Vogel was the best coach, but he's easily top 5, tbh, he runs a very good system with limited personnel..
- No star shot creators(Paul George has trouble creating his own shot consistently, West isn't a star, Hibbert's post game is mediocre)
- poor shooters(22nd in the NBA in 3-point %)
- poor ball-handlers(they don't have any reliable ball-handlers on the roster)
- One of the worst benches in the NBA
Yet they have had deep playoff runs in consecutive years and nearly beat Miami in game 1 in OT..
He made 2 horrible decisions, he deserves blame, but
Even the best coaches make errors, obviously..Pop is the best coach in the NBA, yet he spent like 4 years overplaying Matt Bonner, not just for individual key possessions, but for entire seasons(one example)..
With 2.2 seconds left on the clock, the chances of LeBron passing the ball diminished. Even if he would be willing to pass it, that would have been a rushed shot. I can live with anyone else taking a jumpshot (even MJ or Kobe), but I'm not giving a wide open layup at this point of the game
And the Bruce Bowen decision against Kobe in game 1/2008..
Every great coach makes egregious mistakes, tbh..
Vogel is getting blasted more than usual because it was against Miami and all non-Heat fans are obviously cheering against them..
The Heat could have engineered motion on an inbounds play that would have required Hibbert to choose between being in position to defend the paint and staying with his shooter on the inbounds pass -- in that scenario, LeBron doesn't have to catch and then pass to the open man, the inbounds pass would get it done.
If LeBron catches ball outside 3pt line, he has no time to pass. He barely made that layup in time. Bounce pass to Bosh would be way too late.
So Spurs` best big men was in the game. Pacers` wasnt.
No. When Duncan was sitting Bonner was on the floor with Splitter. When Duncan came back in, he replaced Splitter and not Bonner. Duncan and Splitter didn't play together until overtime. The reason Splitter and Duncan weren't playing together was NOT because Duncan was in foul trouble, it's because Pop wanted to play Bonner. Period.
That was Pop fault, and you are right. I also posted something similar to your observation.
Pacers are not ready. So many defensive mistakes. I like their balance and talent overall however, George Hill lacks balls still... and they don't know what help defense is.
This tbh, Pop refuses to play our best defensive lineup
That's not what I'm saying though.
1. Vogel puts in Hibbert.
2. Spo has whoever Hibbert's covering (let's say Bosh) racing around for an open shot at the elbow (or the 3 point line, if he's not covering Bosh).
3a. If Hibbert stays with Bosh, Hibbert doesn't have time to recover and affect LeBron's drive.
3b. If Hibbert leaves Bosh ahead of the inbounds pass to cover the paint, Bosh has an uncontested shot at the elbow. The inbounds pass goes straight to Bosh and LeBron is just a decoy.
Even worse is if the Heat run some screens ahead of the inbounds and the Pacers switch, leaving Hibbert trying to keep up with Wade or Allen. Good luck with that. (And if the Pacers don't switch on screens, that creates more room for an open catch and shoot.)
You could defend no putting Hibbert on Bosh and you did it. But you should put Hibbert on inbounder. He`s big, inbounder wouldnt see light underneath him.
What are the chances of Hibbert leaving the paint chasing Bosh though?
With 2.2 seconds to go, the Pacers should have simply crowded around the paint. Don't even bother guarding outside shooters. If a Heat player were to be left wide open for a jumper, so be it. It's 2.2 seconds we're talking about. Perhaps 50% odds of a basket being made.
Contrast that to the 90% likelihood of a largely uncontested layup resulting in a basket.
I bet if you totaled up every play in the NBA over the last ten years with the game on the line and 2.2 seconds on the clock, 90% of them are catch and shoots, because most players can't catch and drive in that amount of time and still get a shot off. Why on earth would you give anyone an open jumper?
That's a really good idea, actually. Only reason I can think of is that they wanted someone who could react more quickly.
If he doesn't, Bosh gets the inbounds pass and the Pacers are giftwrapping an open jumper for an elite midrange shooter. That's roughly as bad as a team deciding not to bother to cover Duncan or Parker at the elbow.
That really was an awful decision by Vogel. Everything about it. They didn't even pack the paint. . .it was so obvious that LeBron would drive if he had a clear lane. 2.2 seconds is PLENTY of time to catch, drive, and lay the ball up.
At worst pack the paint force someone into a damn jumper. At best they shoot 45-50% on a jumper (less if contested). Layups are like 75-80%. Possibly a series-losing decision by Vogel.
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