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OK, Manny, my bad...I thought that's where you were going.
Wasn't me...
OK, Manny, my bad...I thought that's where you were going.
well there is extremely strong evidence regarding man made global warming, which only leads to more extremes in temperatures.
I'm sorry...I disagree with you strongly here.
The latest GFS has Emily eventually coming ashore just south of Texas. The UKMET - another model - has some weird track way to the north and the other models still have a bit of a more southerly route. I think it's still going to come more north however. I just have a feeling Emily has a date with Texas.
Emily is now a hurricane.AT 14/0108Z...908 PM AST...A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT MEASURED PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 79 KTS...WHICH
CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 63 KT...OR 73 MPH...AT THE SURFACE....WHICH IS
ON THE THRESHOLD OF HURRICANE FORCE. ADDITIONALLY...ADJUSTMENT OF
A DROPSONDE WIND PROFILE TO THE SURFACE INDICATES SURFACE WINDS OF
ABOUT 80 KT...OR ABOUT 92 MPH. THIS INTENSITY INCREASE WILL BE
REFLECTED IN THE ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED BY 11 PM AST...0300Z.
I'm hoping this hits Corpus. I can't wait to get drunk as during a big ass storm. I tried during Hurrican Claudette, but it hit just north of us and we didn't even get any rain. Big ing disappointment.
Hurricane Emily Discussion Number 13
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on July 13, 2005
Emily has rapidly intensified into a hurricane this evening. The
first aircraft fix at 2331z indicated the low level center was
beneath the western edge of the deep convection and measured a
central pressure of 1000 mb. 00z Dvorak intensity estimates ranged
from 50 to 65 kt...with the stronger estimates based on a low level
center in the middle of the deep convection. Later recon fixes
showed that the center had reformed to the northeast within the
convection...and the wind and pressure data soon responded. The
pressure has most recently fallen to 992 mb...and the maximum 850
mb flight level wind has been 79 kt...supporting at least 63 kt at
the surface. However...reduction to the surface of a dropsonde
profile just north of the center at 01z supports surface winds of
80 kt...which is the advisory intensity. The intensity forecast is
adjusted upward from the previous advisory...making Emily a major
hurricane by 48 hours. This could be conservative.
Due to the scatter in the recon fixes during the past couple of
hours...initial motion is uncertain but is estimated at 275/16.
Except for a slight northward adjustment to account for the new
position...the track forecast is very similar to the previous
advisory. The NWS models...GFS and GFDL...have changed little
since the previous runs...while the Navy models...GFDN and
NOGAPS...have shifted only slightly to the south. The official
forecast takes Emily west-northwestward across the Caribbean
Sea...in accordance with the tightly clustered dynamical model
guidance.
Forecaster Knabb
what is up with Manny "Albert Flores" Salgado lately?
Models are back to a southerly track.
Models are only correct after the storm has passed by.
True. I'm still thinking a northword swing. But it's pretty much a consensus among models except for the UKMET, but that one has been WAY off the past 2 runs.
Must not be a property owner. How will you feel when it takes the roof off of your folks house? You need a storm to get drunk? I feel sorry for you!
I'm a proud renter and my folks aren't from around here so no worries here.
In related news, I actually got .75" of rain yesterday evening.I saw the storm on radar; it looked like it was about 3 miles wide, so I was lucky. We missed out on a lot of the earlier rains when it was raining in SA & south of town, so I'm glad to finally get some.
Ladies and gentelmen of the forum, I give you the youth and future of America.
May God help us all.
Does anyone remember Hurricane Carla back in the 1960's? I've heard a lot of stories, mainly because the eye traveled all the way up to my neck of the woods.
Manny's the only Meter-ologist in town that's worth a damn.
Sincerely,
Steve Browne
I saw the aftermath personally in Port Lavaca when I was a kid. Un ingbelievable. I remember seeing a huge offshore type cargo ship maybe 200 feet long laying out in a muddy cotton field that was several miles from the ocean. Shrimp boats were scattered everywhere. Lots of slabs and no buildings left. Trust me...nobody wants one like that.
Yeah, my grandfather (he's 91) tells me that the gigantic reinforced concrete silo that he used to have at his dairy barn in Sodville was knocked down... pretty unbelieveable.
Evidently, the eye stayed intact and traveled several hundred miles inland.
Heres a story from that hurricane...
Remembering killer "Carla"
by Murray Montgomery
Back when I was still working full time for The Gonzales Inquirer newspaper, I would often spend my weekends going through the archives and researching some of the old papers.
Sometimes I just decide to pick a year, and then go through every issue from that time period. The last one I researched was 1961. I really don't know why I picked that year — maybe because that was when I graduated from high school — and most of the memories from that time are good ones.
However, an old Inquirer from September 14, 1961, reminded me of one of the bad memories — one I had forgotten until now.
The story was from the Associated Press (AP) wire service and it was led: "15-Year-Old Boy Describes Loss Of Family In Storm." And what triggered the bad memory for me was...I knew that boy. As I recall, he and my sister were classmates and friends. The young boy's name was Robert Dunn and his life was indeed a tragic story.
When Hurricane Carla crashed ashore on the Texas coast on September 10-11,1961, I was in the Texas Army National Guard and was going to the Army's armor training school at Ft. Knox, Kentucky. My family lived in Angleton, Texas. Robert Dunn and his family lived south of Angleton, along the banks of Bastrop Bayou.
According to old weather records, Carla had grown so large by September 9, that it enveloped the entire Gulf of Mexico — winds near the center were estimated at 150 mph. On that day a mass evacuation was ordered. It was reported that over half a million coastal residents fled the storm. This early evacuation greatly reduced the number of lives that were lost — records show that 46 died in the storm. Eleven of those who perished were from Robert Dunn's family. This number included members of his uncle John Drvar's family.
Robert's father, R.W. (Shorty) Dunn, felt as if he had been through several storms before and he really wasn't too concerned about this one. Local authorities begged him to leave because his home on Bastrop Bayou was in grave danger. He refused to be evacuated. He was asked let his children come out — again he refused.
When I returned to my National Guard unit in Angleton, several months after the storm, I talked with several of my buddies who were sent out to try to rescue the Dunns.
The guardsmen said they made three attempts to get the Dunn family out. On the third try, they lost a two and a half ton truck in Bastrop Bayou. The driver told me that when they reached a bridge, only one guardrail was sticking out of the water. He had to pick one side or the other, hoping to pick the one with the bridge underneath. His selection was wrong and several soldiers nearly drowned. That was the last attempt to rescue the Dunns.
In the AP story, Robert Dunn said that his father felt that he had been through storms before and Hurricane Carla would be no worse than the others.
The article quoted Robert's description of the event: "He said if it got too bad we would leave," Robert said. "My aunt and uncle lived close to us and when it got pretty bad they came to our house."
"What must have been a tidal wave suddenly covered everything, including the car, and we couldn't leave. Somehow we made it to the attic. All the food we had was a loaf of bread. My share was two slices, but two of the younger children were crying because they were so hungry and I divided my share among them. I didn't feel hungry anyway.
"I think it was early Sunday morning that we got into the attic. We stayed there until the worst part of the storm hit. There was a big wave that came then and we all started to get on the roof. I managed to get up there.
"The wind was blowing really hard then and I tried to reach down and help two of the children up. But something seemed to pull them away from me.
"The last time I saw my parents, mother and dad were holding hands and she was crying."
Robert Dunn was on the roof of his floating home for three days. When the house finally came to rest on land, he walked out. Robert told me that he thought he was miles out in the Gulf of Mexico — because he was surrounded by water. He said he even saw a buoy with a red light on top. What he actually saw was the radio antenna above the Brazoria County Courthouse. The courthouse is five-stories tall.
In 1962, I was working with a survey crew for the Texas Highway Department in Angleton. One job took us to the salt-grass prairie near Bastrop Bayou and where the Dunn family home had been. There were several tall trees in the area, probably 30 to 40 feet in height. Each one of them still had debris from Hurricane Carla hanging from the very tops.
There were beds, refrigerators, stoves, boats, personal items, etc. It was a scary feeling to stand on the ground and realize that the water had actually been that high.
What makes the memory of Robert Dunn even sadder is that the tragedy didn't end with the savage hurricane in 1961. Several years later, this last member of the Dunn family was killed while serving with the military in Vietnam.
Being from Corpus Christi, I remember well Carla 1961, Beulah 1968, & Celia 1970. Only Celia was a direct hit on Corpus but none of them were fun to go through. I went to work for SW Bell in 1962 and needless to say, we were kept busy.
as do i to your position.
just so happens that my position is the one that 95% of the global scientists agree on by and large
You don't even know my position.
And don't throw around numbers you know not where they came from. Or categories, for that matter.
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