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True, yet you never know with Pop. When things are going good, he'll throw a curveball for no good reason and up the fluidity of the team.
He is part of the conversation since he's one of the people Baynes is up against. There's no argument that he could take his spot unless he's hurt though, but you can't magically discount the minutes Duncan will be playing at the position Baynes plays at though. They still count, thus he's part of the conversation.
Diaw doesn't get ragdolled. Splitter, despite being soft on occaision, has improved out defense after playing longer minutes. That's reflected statistically. I don't think he's as limited as Baynes offensively either, so really he's better in just about every way besides help defense where Splitter for some reason doesn't try that hard.
Who were you talking about with the mouth breathing and looking slow-witted? Splitter of Baynes? I couldn't tell. It kinda of applies to both guys to me. Splitter often looks like he's dizzy out on the basketball court like he's struggling to figure out where he's supposed to go next as the play's happening. BB IQ might be okay but I don't think his actually IQ is that high. Here I am though bashing the guy I'm trying to make a case for.
We'll see about Baynes vs Bonner. That's certainly possible. . .and that's the ONLY spot in which he can really break in. I do not think he can break in over Splitter. Splitter isn't perfect but he's far from useless or scrub caliber. Plenty of teams would like to have him. Sometimes as Spurfans we can be spoiled though because we've had David Robinson and Tim Duncan, two of the absolute best ever big men. Splitter is an above average big man. Bonner though, you know Pop loves him some Matt BONER. Like I said, we'll see on if he can get minutes over him. I still think it's gonna take an injury though for him to get any more than 6-10 minutes a game.
I'm not totally adverse to Baynes though, he hasn't really shown he's mostly unreliable yet like De Colo has. But of what I have seen, he just didn't mess up, but didn't really stand out any either. Not overly excited for him, but I won't write him off yet.
Even if he did, I don't see how he'd supplant Splitter or Diaw off of one good night. Those guys have already proven themselves and have seniority.
True, yet you never know with Pop. When things are going good, he'll throw a curveball for no good reason and up the fluidity of the team.
Pop doesn't need Bonner now as much as he did in the past and can be used more effectively and situational.
No, only garbage minutes. Bonner will play more minutes than Baynes and in the playoffs the rotation is: Timmy, Splitter, Diaw + small-ball with Leonard.
Seeing the way Ayres played during the scrimmage, I have to change my answer to no. Pendergraph looks like he can contribute very quickly. I love his size, rebounding ability, and scoring. He had that nice little turn around jumpshot in the post as well as that baseline jumper. As for Baynes, there was nothing exciting about what I saw. Needless to say if Ayres and Baynes are fighting for the next slot in the bigman rotation, i'd say Ayres is the guy.
Ayres cannot play the 5. Was Ayres even playing the 4 during the scrimmage?
Baynes still does get trapped way high on pnr and lets the play get behind him, I saw him do it again, but he can still rebound and set screens that completely take defenders out of plays. Baynes is only going to be playing the 5. The other two guys we have that can play the 5 are Duncan and Splitter.
There is always small ball with Diaw or Bonner trotted out at the 5. Or you can play Splitter and Duncan on separate lineups as much as possible.
Your right! Although knowing Pop, he's going with Bon-Bon 95% of the time at that 5 spot.
forget the rotation, Baynes won't even be on the active roster. Ayres isn't getting twice as much as Baynes to be in a suit.
And re: Ayres ability to play the 5. Maybe not, he was worse than Ian in Indiana playing the 5, but Duncan will play 5 when Splitter's out in games that matter anyway.
He can and he will. He's 6-10 in shoes, stronger than Splitter, a better rebounder and roughly equal as a shot blocker. Though a PF first, expect him to primarily play C as a Spur, because between Duncan/Splitter in tandem, Diaw, Bonner and Leonard, the PF minutes are spoken for. At C, they only have Duncan/Splitter (as objective correctly pointed out, Baynes won't even be active the majority of the time), who will obviously play a fair bit together and won't eclipse 30 mpg. Neither Diaw nor Bonner can credibly play C.
Leonard at PF? I'll believe it when I see it. As far as Ayres, you're talking in the hypothetical. He hasn't played more than 40 games in any one season and Indiana thought so highly of him, they put him behind Mahimni on the depth chart and weren't willing to offer him more than the minimum to retain him. I'm not sure how you can even compare a starting Center to a 4th/5th string Center and say with a straight face, the numbers are weighted equally.
In small ball lineups. It's already been seen, if you were paying attention.
I'm not talking in the hypothetical. He's got all the tools necessary to play some C (we're not talking about 20-30 mpg here) and has throughout his career. Mahinmi was ahead on the depth chart largely because of salary and the only reason the Pacers didn't retain him was because they didn't want to tie up cap space in a fifth big, since they needed to remake their bench. You act as if I made those numbers up. Go look at their profiles on Draft Express, then their advanced stats on basketball reference. Those are all facts, genius.
There seems to be quite an assumption for the effectiveness of a fringe rotation guy on the Pacers coming in.
As fun as it sounds to have another 5 under 5'10" out there with Dwight Howard, Andrew Bogut, Marc Gasol, Thompson/Cousins, etc in the conference I do not think it's a foregone conclusion that Baynes will be inactive every night. When you trot out a guy like that at the 5 invariable the Spurs defense at the rim goes to . Baynes can bother NBA scorers at the rim. We have seen him do it. We have seen Diaw and Bonner fail at it and Ayres to this point in his career has not demonstrated that ability.
Duncan or Splitter are not necessarily going to be on the court every minute of the game. I would put the over under on games missed between the two at 15. We are three deep at the point and Leonard, Manu, Green, Bellinelli, Young/Maggette we have a glut at the swing positions. Inactives can come from there as well.
It's going to come down to play and practice in the preseason and Popovich has a tendency to tinker with lineups before the all star break. Baynes will get a shot just like the rest I am guessing.
ayers will totally see some time at 5. the spurs played blair at 5! the starting line up will get some blood in the water. we'll see the fin of the great white, hear a few whistles, and there you have it. ayers at 5.
and with cojo, decolo/belli, manu in the primary bench rotation. i wouldn't be surprised to see ayers doing some serious checking of flakey and slumpy at 4.
You're using PER which is a highly flawed stat. Having the tools is one thing but comparing him to a starting Center is another. The numbers just don't equate. Pendergragh was on the team when Mahimni got his 4 year/16M contract so I'm pretty sure they thought more highly of Ian than they did Jeff at the time. There's no written rule that says a team has to play a player more because he makes more money. You're familiar with Richard Jefferson, right? I don't consider myself a genius, and I certainly don't try to blow smoke up one's skirt either. I know how to reads stats from a web page. Thanks for the tip. The problem is using those stats and putting them into context. Your read analysis is way off. Ayres has done nearly all his damage in low leverage situations while Splitter has done so in medium to high leverage situations. I never said Jeff doesn't have the ability and wherewithal to get better, but he's not there yet. Oh, and yeah, he'll almost certainly see spot minutes at C, basically because the Spurs are using a carousel rotation this year and don't have a whole lot of go-to options at this point.
Last edited by Hoops Czar; 10-08-2013 at 07:46 PM.
AYres at the 5 is going to mean more layup drills just like when we saw Blair, Bonner and whatever else smaller big was trotted out there.
Mahinmi was ahead on the depth chart because he was better, period. The Pacers gave Ayresgraph plenty of opportunities to take the back-up 5 spot from Mahinmi, he just wasn't good enough. Mahinmi, despite his flaws of bad hands, turnovers, and excessive fouls was still proven out over the season to be better.
Also, the Pacers dumping Ayres didn't have anything to do with capspace. They didn't have any as long as they kept West's caphold and then after they re-signed him it was settled. The Pacers signed their new players with their exceptions, and of course the trade of equivalent salary for Scola. Ayres' little caphold was meaningless. They could have signed him at that caphold instead of paying Hilton Armstrong the minimum and still been under the tax.
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anyways, my two cents reiterated: if the Spurs thought Baynes had a future as a contributor (rightly or wrongly), they would have signed a minimum big like Hilton Armstrong instead of part of the MLE on Ayres. Writing's on the wall, same as it was when Mahinmi was here. When the team brings in players and pay them to play ahead of you instead of compete against you, you probably aren't getting minutes.
I think Baynes will see more minutes than most assume, he has to, otherwise TD and TS will not rest.
We know Tim, Tiago and Boris are our main three guys. Bonner is going to get minutes because he brings something the other 5 guys don't. That leaves a Ayres vs Baynes battle for consistent minutes.
i've seen jack squat of ayers. but i'm a bit more optimistic than that. i think ayers is bigger than you give him credit for? and i'm thinking rc adequately figured out the blair/neal upgrades this offseason. if there's gonna be a lay up drill going down. it'll be when diaw or/and bonner are out there.
It's not an assumption; I didn't make up his advanced stats. Baynes will be inactive, so long as they're healthy. Had they thought he could be even a fringe rotation player, they wouldn't have signed Ayres. Buford even mentioned Ayres' ability to defend the likes of Howard, after his signing was announced.
They're not activating six bigs and Leonard essentially serves as a de facto sixth big (for small ball) on the active roster anyway. Baynes is the automatic to be inactive.
It's largely predetermined. The notion that minutes are based on merit in sports, is mostly false.
Hoops Czar, as you so often do, you missed the point. I'm not suggesting Ayres is as good or better than Splitter, I'm simply saying, if Splitter can play C, then there's no reason to think Ayres can't.
objective, they were roughly even and when that's the case, the tie goes to the one making more money.
And I meant avoiding the tax, not cap space. They didn't want to tie up the money his qualifying offer or a new deal would have, as he wouldn't have been more than a fifth big for them. A third big, backup PG and fourth wing, rightfully took priority. In hindsight, yeah, they could have avoided the tax anyway, but it was close enough that they couldn't take the risk at the time. They didn't know for certain they could get the exact players, at the exact cost, they did.
Honk. You said that Ayres was a better rebounder and virtually the same at blocking shots. How do you know this unless you're using advanced sabermetrics and making half-assed assumptions. All of Ayres numbers/stats have come in low leverage situations while Tiago's have come in medium to high leverage situations. You can't make a fair comparison when one player, in this case Ayres, is putting up numbers against inferior compe ion. He'll definitely play some 5 because the Spurs are going with a carousel rotation and TD is going to need some rest. I don't think he'll be very effective down low but only time will tell.
... Playing well.
12 points 7 rebs in ~20 mins. It's against Euroleague but its some of the best the Euroleague has to offer. Hit a nice jump shot with under 2 to play in OT down by 2. Was credited with the tip in though that was not directly his shot to tie it at the end of regulation. His effort down low helped make it happen though. Those are two clutch situations.
LJ says he needs to be more physical. Xellos says that his size seemed to bother CSKA. That speaks to me of efficacy and upside. He has maintained his awesome physique. I don't think people understand how much effort he puts into his body to maintain that. His cardio is noticeably improved. He can hit jumpers which if you look at his college scouting reports is something he has added to his game. That speaks to me of a good work ethic.
Very well could be a legit 5. 7'1" 270 lbs. Athletic for being that big. Is a presence in the paint on the boards, protecting the rim, and straight up banging. I know I am gushing a bit but if he develops he would immensely help the talent base for the rest of the Duncan era and beyond. He is only 26 years old which is right about the time that big men that are not HoF types begin to come into their own.
I'd say that if he puts a few more games in like this then he will be cracking the rotation sooner than later.
Baynes averaged twice the blocks of Ayres last season in less mpg. Ayres is a good player but you cannot pivot a defense around him. You might be able to with Baynes. Baynes' upside is a of a lot higher.
Bump. What's up?
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