Analysis of Spurs Defense against Miami (2014 Finals)

[Chinook]

looking forward to see the game 4 update, though tbh i'm expecting chinook to show that Leonard was just so-so

I can't imagine Leonard NOT having a superior rating to Green for tonight's game. Danny's fouls killed him. Although Lebron going HAM in the third may affect the numbers.

I'll pretend Pop didn't go HAM on Danny telling him to just run to Ray's chest instead of jumping at him... that's how much I appreciate these breakdowns, tbh...

Eh, it's hit and miss on closeouts. I'm still waiting for Allen to sidestep into Green like you said he would. Enjoy your victory, Nono. Tonight set the CoG back a little.

I immediately thought of the SpursTalk discussion when that moment happened... actually laughed.

I did, too. I started refreshing ST to see if Nono was gonna call me out. Thought I had managed to duck him.

[spurraider21]

I can't imagine Leonard NOT having a superior rating to Green for tonight's game. Danny's fouls killed him. Although Lebron going HAM in the third may affect the numbers.



Eh, it's hit and miss on closeouts. I'm still waiting for Allen to sidestep into Green like you said he would. Enjoy your victory, Nono. Tonight set the CoG back a little.



I did, too. I started refreshing ST to see if Nono was gonna call me out. Thought I had managed to duck him.

i still think Green's numbers will look good, based on Wade's shooting figures

[will_spurs]

I'll pretend Pop didn't go HAM on Danny telling him to just run to Ray's chest instead of jumping at him... that's how much I appreciate these breakdowns, tbh...

I was laughing while thinking at this discussion. This is the end of fly-by closeouts

[ElNono]

its funny because Ray made the same mistake on the other end, Green pumped and knocked in a 3 pointer. both sharpshooters ed up on a closeout against the other

yup. And the discussion is never hard-close vs soft-close, it's the jumping, especially on limited space. You can hard close by frantically running at a player and invading his space to force him to put the ball on the floor.

A lot of players jump, and it's more prevalent when covering long distances, so it's not like Danny is doing something weird, he just sometimes overdoes it. As I was telling Chinook, I think it's a matter of bad habit, something he needs to recognize better when to do it and when not to do it.

[ElNono]

Eh, it's hit and miss on closeouts. I'm still waiting for Allen to sidestep into Green like you said he would. Enjoy your victory, Nono. Tonight set the CoG back a little.

I thought Wade caught Danny again on that in this game. He's actually baiting him to do it. Danny was terrific tho, I have no complaints...

[Chinook]

i still think Green's numbers will look good, based on Wade's shooting figures

Maybe, but Green got saddled with Wade's only making in the first three quarters and at least two other shots in addition to his fouls. He also didn't force many TOs. I wouldn't be surprised to see him over 1 in PPP allowed. Kawhi forced quite a few TOs and had some blocks, so he should be able to offset James having that GOAT quarter.

[Chinook]

I thought Wade caught Danny again on that in this game. He's actually biting him to do it. Danny was terrific tho, I have no complains...

Yeah, Wade gets a lot of people with that pump-fake. There's really no excuse for Green to keep falling for it, even if Wade keeps jumping into players.

None of those fouls were hard-closes, though. It's easier to jump into a defender when he's moving towards you. It's a lot harder to do so if he's flying by you.

[ElNono]

Yeah, Wade gets a lot of people with that pump-fake. There's really no excuse for Green to keep falling for it, even if Wade keeps jumping into players.

None of those fouls were hard-closes, though. It's easier to jump into a defender when he's moving towards you. It's a lot harder to do so if he's flying by you.

I would agree with that. I just think Danny sometimes feels he has to *alter* shots, instead of *contesting* shots, when Pop just wants the latter. I like the aggressiveness, but experienced players will make you pay for it.

On the same token, I also liked Danny's composure to make Ray pay on the other end for the same "mistake".

[will_spurs]

BTW I for one would like for the NBA to change its rules on the kind of foul Wade got. It's true that Green wasn't jumping straight up to contest that shot, but he was actually going to land in front of Wade. Then Wade takes one step forward and suddenly it's called contact.

[Chinook]

I would agree with that. I just think Danny sometimes feels he has to *alter* shots, instead of *contesting* shots, when Pop just wants the latter. I like the aggressiveness, but experienced players will make you pay for it.

On the same token, I also liked Danny's composure to make Ray pay on the other end for the same "mistake".

Green is still a PF at heart. He's an elite shot-blocker for his position, and that comes with the tendency to be jumpy. He needs to get smarter about it, though. He can't pick up that many fouls trying to protect the rim. Verticality is the key in the paint, and just plain patience is the key on the perimeter.

The Heat are hard-closing on Green, and Danny is making them pay on several different ways. If this were a Heat board, you'd be all on me for how ineffective Miami's hard-closes have been on Green.

[ElNono]

Green is still a PF at heart. He's an elite shot-blocker for his position, and that comes with the tendency to be jumpy. He needs to get smarter about it, though. He can't pick up that many fouls trying to protect the rim. Verticality is the key in the paint, and just plain patience is the key on the perimeter.

The Heat are hard-closing on Green, and Danny is making them pay on several different ways. If this were a Heat board, you'd be all on me for how ineffective Miami's hard-closes have been on Green.

Credit to Danny, since at least Game 3, he's shown he can be trusted to be more than a spot up shooter. Pop will reward that (as long as he's not in foul trouble).

[Chinook]

Shorter breakdown today, guys. Here are the numbers for Game Four:

Total	Game 4	Poss.	Makes	Misses	Fouls	TOs	Points	PPP		Series	Poss.	Makes	Misses	Fouls	TOs	Points	PPP
	Duncan	18	5	10	2	1	11	0.611111		Duncan	52.5	22	23	7	3	57	1.085714
	Leonard	20	6	10	2	3	15	0.75		Leonard	72	23	30	14	13	62	0.861111
	Splitter	7	3	4	0	0	7	1		Splitter	34	13	15	6	4	35	1.029412
	Parker	4	1	2	1	0	4	1		Parker	33	11	13	7	6	28	0.848485
	Green	9	4	2	5	0	15	1.666667		Green	56	14	17	13	15	50	0.892857
	Diaw	7	3	3	0	1	6	0.857143		Diaw	40	19	14	5	5	48	1.2
	Mills	8	1	3	2	3	3	0.375		Mills	20	5	8	3	6	13	0.65
	Ginobili	11	4	2	3	4	10	0.909091		Ginobili	41	15	14	12	8	38	0.926829
	Belinelli	2	1	1	0	0	3	1.5		Belinelli	18	11	5	1	1	26	1.444444
	Bonner	7	4	1	1	1	12	1.714286		Bonner	8	5	1	2	1	14	1.75
	Ayres	1	0	1	0	0	0	0		Ayres	2	0	2	0	0	0	0
										Joseph	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
	Total	94	32	39	17	13	86	0.914894
										Total	377.5	138	143	71	62	371	0.982781
James	Game 4	Poss.	Makes	Misses	Fouls	TOs	Points	PPP		Series	Poss.	Makes	Misses	Fouls	TOs	Points	PPP
	Duncan	2	0	1	1	0	1	0.5		Duncan	10.5	3	5	2	1	8	0.761905
	Leonard	11	6	3	1	1	15	1.363636		Leonard	41	19	10	10	8	49	1.195122
	Splitter	1	1	0	0	0	3	3		Splitter	5	1	2	0	2	3	0.6
	Parker	3	0	2	1	0	2	0.666667		Parker	7	1	5	2	0	4	0.571429
	Green	1	1	0	1	0	2	2		Green	9	2	1	3	4	8	0.888889
	Mills	2	0	1	0	1	0	0		Diaw	15	10	3	2	1	25	1.666667
	Ginobili	2	1	0	0	1	3	1.5		Mills	2	0	1	0	1	0	0
	Bonner	1	1	0	0	0	2	2		Ginobili	3	2	0	2	1	5	1.666667
										Belinelli	3	2	1	0	0	4	1.333333
	Total	23	10	7	4	3	28	1.217391		Bonner	2	2	0	0	0	4	2
										Total	97.5	42	28	21	18	110	1.128205
Wade	Game 4	Poss.	Makes	Misses	Fouls	TOs	Points	PPP		Series	Poss.	Makes	Misses	Fouls	TOs	Points	PPP
	Duncan	3	1	1	1	0	2	0.666667		Duncan	7	3	2	2	0	8	1.142857
	Leonard	3	0	2	1	1	0	0		Leonard	7	0	4	2	2	1	0.142857
	Splitter	2	0	2	0	0	0	0		Splitter	4	0	4	1	0	0	0
	Green	4	1	1	2	0	5	1.25		Parker	3	1	1	0	1	2	0.666667
	Diaw	3	1	1	0	1	2	0.666667		Green	21	5	5	6	6	20	0.952381
	Mills	1	0	1	0	0	0	0		Diaw	10	3	4	1	3	6	0.6
	Ginobili	3	0	1	1	1	1	0.333333		Mills	2	0	2	0	0	0	0
	Bonner	1	0	1	0	0	0	0		Ginobili	15	6	5	3	2	15	1
										Belinelli	6	6	0	0	0	13	2.166667
	Total	20	3	10	5	3	10	0.5		Bonner	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
										Total	76	24	28	15	14	65	0.855263
Bosh	Game 4	Poss.	Makes	Misses	Fouls	TOs	Points	PPP		Series	Poss.	Makes	Misses	Fouls	TOs	Points	PPP
	Duncan	8	2	5	0	1	4	0.5		Duncan	15	6	7	2	2	16	1.066667
	Leonard	1	0	0	0	1	0	0		Leonard	3	2	0	0	1	6	2
	Green	1	0	0	1	0	2	2		Splitter	10	6	2	3	1	16	1.6
	Diaw	3	2	1	0	0	4	1.333333		Parker	2	1	1	0	0	2	1
	Ginobili	1	1	0	1	0	2	2		Green	5	2	1	2	0	7	1.4
										Diaw	5	3	2	0	0	6	1.2
	Total	14	5	6	2	2	12	0.857143		Mills	1	1	0	0	0	2	2
										Ginobili	3	1	2	2	0	2	0.666667
										Total	44	22	15	9	4	57	1.295455

Note: I didn't include the numbers for Lewis and Allen in this breakdown, obviously. But I do still have them (as I do the numbers for each Heat player for each game). If anyone really wants to see them, let me know, and I'll post them.

General Takeaways:

-If anyone thought my grading system was biased to make Green look good, you can stop thinking that now. Danny had a poor game defensively, and both his plus-minus and his PPP allowed reflect that. His main problem was that he fouled too much, and each of them was the result of his jumping unnecessarily or sticking his hand where it didn’t belong. Due to his gambling nature Green is a boom-or-bust player defensively. He’s obviously a lot more boom than bust, but if a couple of bounces and whistles don’t go his way, he can look really bad. He had a couple of nice deflections in Game Four, but whereas those deflections became turnovers in Game Three, on Thursday the loose balls found their way into the hands of Heat players in scoring position. Bad luck for Danny, indeed, but that doesn’t mean he deserves a pass for when his gambling bites him in the ass. He gets plenty of praise in this thread when it turns out well.

-Leonard had a very strong defensive performance, obviously, both qualitatively and quan atively. He wasn’t really able to stop James’ GOAT mode in the third quarter, but outside of that, allowing zero points on 12 possessions outside of James’ run. He used his length very well against smaller Heat players, collecting three blocks against Wade and Chalmers and altering a couple of other shots. If Kawhi can every become a dominant shot-blocker for his position, he has real potential to be a DPOY winner.

-This was by far Duncan’s best defensive performance this post-season. With Lewis struggling to stretch the floor, Tim could hang back in the lane, which allowed him to stay in his comfort zone and protect the rim. But Duncan also showed improved effort getting back in transition and staying with driving guards on PnRs. The Heat better hope Lewis can get hot again, because Tim is going to smell blood in the water tomorrow.

-Diaw also had a fine game defensively. He got out to contest shots on Bosh and Lewis, but he was most impressive in his ability to guard Wade. I said it before, but if the Heat can’t exploit Boris on Dwyane, then they have no chance to win another game. I imagine the Heat are going to start Allen tomorrow, so we may well see Green on Ray and Diaw on Wade from the gate. Wade’s ability to attack that match-up early may be a pretty strong sign of whether Miami is going to be a threat to win Game Five.

-The Heat had six second-chance opportunities and scored five points off them. The Spurs had 12 opportunities and scored 11 points off them.

[Chinook]

looking forward to see the game 4 update, though tbh i'm expecting chinook to show that Leonard was just so-so

It surely didn't turn out that way.

[spurraider21]

It surely didn't turn out that way.

. thanks for the write-up

[Baam]

Great read as usual. Pop finally took Beli out of the rotation despite Green having a so so game by his standard... Guess he really wanted that game ...

[ElNono]

thanks

[therealtruth]

Yeah, Wade gets a lot of people with that pump-fake. There's really no excuse for Green to keep falling for it, even if Wade keeps jumping into players.

None of those fouls were hard-closes, though. It's easier to jump into a defender when he's moving towards you. It's a lot harder to do so if he's flying by you.

Wade is the best in the business at that pump fake.

[therealtruth]

The only thing I fear is Spoelstra makes dramatic changes to try to catch the Spurs by surprise. He's gotten better since 2011 and is willing to do anything to win.