Who is the biggest threat in the Western Conference?

[Uriel]

Yes we would. We had home court, and were 2-2 WITH Serge on the floor.

Yeah, but we were one Manu 3 pointer / Leonard block on Westbrook / Duncan fadeaway in the post from being 1-3 WITH Serge on the floor. Of course, as Spurs fans, we don't want to admit it, but Game 6 really could have gone either way; luck just happened to be on our side that time around.

I'm not saying OKC is the better team; we were far and away the best team in the NBA last season. But OKC was the 2nd best team, and they have the advantage of matching up well with us.

[exstatic]

And yet, despite all those flaws, they were one OT session away from winning Game 6 and heading into an anything-can-happen Game 7. Now, if Ibaka had been healthy the whole series, it might not even have come to that.

Remember, most pundits were picking OKC to beat us before news of the Ibaka injury came out.

Most pundits picked Miami, too, and look how that turned out. Most pundits are idiots.

Even with Abaka playing 4 of 6 games, our ORtg was 114.4. We BEAT ASS on them in our building, yes even with Abaka in game 5.

[exstatic]

Yeah, but we were one Manu 3 pointer / Leonard block on Westbrook / Duncan fadeaway in the post from being 1-3 WITH Serge on the floor. Of course, as Spurs fans, we don't want to admit it, but Game 6 really could have gone either way; luck just happened to be on our side that time around.

I'm not saying OKC is the better team; we were far and away the best team in the NBA last season. But OKC was the 2nd best team, and they have the advantage of matching up well with us.

It's not luck, it's making plays. OKC has no system to lean into when things get tight. It's the same reason they lost to Miami in 2012. Look at the Ginobili play, and then look at Westbrick's last shot. That's the difference between the teams.

[Uriel]

Most pundits picked Miami, too, and look how that turned out. Most pundits are idiots.

Even with Abaka playing 4 of 6 games, our ORtg was 114.4. We BEAT ASS on them in our building, yes even with Abaka in game 5.

Actually, most pundits picked the Spurs.

http://espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2014...inals-forecast

And yes, while it is true that we routed OKC in Game 5 despite Ibaka playing, I think he had started to wear down as the series dragged further; a weariness exacerbated by his lingering injury. I don't think it would be outrageous to claim that we would not have gone 3-0 against them at home if he had been 100% healthy from the start of the series.

It's not luck, it's making plays. OKC has no system to lean into when things get tight. It's the same reason they lost to Miami in 2012. Look at the Ginobili play, and then look at Westbrick's last shot. That's the difference between the teams.

That's what everyone likes to think. But the laws of probability tell us otherwise. Studies have shown that games decided by 3 points or less are basically a coin toss; in the long run, teams win about 50% of them.

[exstatic]

Actually, most pundits picked the Spurs.

http://espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2014...inals-forecast

And yes, while it is true that we routed OKC in Game 5 despite Ibaka playing, I think he had started to wear down as the series dragged further; a weariness exacerbated by his lingering injury. I don't think it would be outrageous to claim that we would not have gone 3-0 against them at home if he had been 100% healthy from the start of the series.


That's what everyone likes to think. But the laws of probability tell us otherwise. Studies have shown that games decided by 3 points or less are basically a coin toss; in the long run, teams win about 50% of them.

I think a Ginobili zipper cut play to the top of the circle 3 pointer vs. a Westchuck wild 3 pointer off the shot clock is a bit more than a coin flip. When you use widely based stats like your 3 point game stat, it uses a HUGE amount of games played by teams with many systems, or no system at all. If you put THIS Spurs team against the OKC Thunder, I like our chances in any close game because of their lack of system and RW's ty decision making. There was only one close game, Abaka played, and they choked and we executed and won. On their floor.

[Uriel]

I think a Ginobili zipper cut play to the top of the circle 3 pointer vs. a Westchuck wild 3 pointer off the shot clock is a bit more than a coin flip. When you use widely based stats like your 3 point game stat, it uses a HUGE amount of games played by teams with many systems, or no system at all. If you put THIS Spurs team against the OKC Thunder, I like our chances in any close game because of their lack of system and RW's ty decision making. There was only one close game, Abaka played, and they choked and we executed and won. On their floor.

Yes, but Ginobili's 3-pt shooting % in the playoffs last season was "only" 39%. I say "only" because that's actually less than the 50% probability you would get from a coin toss. If that 3 rims out, we lose the game--regardless of how well the Spurs executed that zipper cut to free him up for the shot.

Of course, I'm not denying that the Spurs are a better executing team than the Thunder; it's obvious that they are. But I think you're also ignoring the factor that luck played into this game; we easily could've lost Game 6 if things had gone just a little bit differently, even despite the fact that the Spurs execute much better than the Thunder.

[exstatic]

Yes, but Ginobili's 3-pt shooting % in the playoffs last season was "only" 39%. I say "only" because that's actually less than the 50% probability you would get from a coin toss. If that 3 rims out, we lose the game--regardless of how well the Spurs executed that zipper cut to free him up for the shot.

Of course, I'm not denying that the Spurs are a better executing team than the Thunder; it's obvious that they are. But I think you're also ignoring the factor that luck played into this game; we easily could've lost Game 6 if things had gone just a little bit differently, even despite the fact that the Spurs execute much better than the Thunder.

I don't factor in luck. It either happens or it doesn't, just like calls or no-calls.

[Uriel]

I don't factor in luck. It either happens or it doesn't, just like calls or no-calls.

Isn't a referee's decision to blow his whistle one way or the other in a call that really could've gone either way precisely the very definition of luck?

[wildchild]

NBA preview: Western Conference predictions




NBA preview: Western Conference predictions

1.San Antonio

2013-14 finish: 62-20.
Coming: Kyle Anderson.
Going: No one of significance.

Despite a storied history, the Spurs have never won back-to-back les. In fact they had never reached back-to-back NBA Finals until 2014 when, a year after losing in excruciating fashion to Miami, they extracted revenge against the Heat to earn their fifth le in the Tim Duncan-Gregg Popovich era. For the Spurs to win consecutive championships — and reach the NBA Finals for the third season in a row — small forward Kawhi Leonard must sustain the high level he showed while earning the MVP award in the 2014 Finals.

2. Clippers

2013-14 finish: 57-25.
Coming: Owner Steve Ballmer, Spencer Hawes, Jordan Farmar, Chris Douglas-Roberts, Ekpe Udoh, C.J. Wilcox.
Going: Owner Donald Sterling, Darren Collison, Danny Granger, Ryan Hollins, Willie Green.

The Clippers could move up in the playoff seedings with Oklahoma City star Kevin Durant sidelined to start the season. Once again, it will be up to Chris Paul, Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan to carry the Clippers. The small forward position is a concern for Coach Doc Rivers, who is starting Matt Barnes, but Reggie Bullock and Douglas-Roberts will get an opportunity to show they can handle that spot. And don't be surprised if Rivers uses guard Jamal Crawford, the NBA's sixth man of the year, at small forward, especially at the end of games.
....
http://www.latimes.com/sports/nba/la...ry.html#page=1

I remember Barkley called Clippers the best team in the West last season...good to know Cali people still keep the faith this year...(latimes.com)

[z0sa]

Health. Tim Duncan not falling off a cliff kinda fits i to this category, too. Nothing else even compares to having a healthy team playing well come playoff time. Long time til then... this season should prove extraordinarily interesting.

[boutons_deux]

NBA preview: Western Conference predictions

1.San Antonio

2013-14 finish: 62-20.
Coming: Kyle Anderson.
Going: No one of significance.

Coming: no mention of Becky?

[timtonymanu]

1.)My Amuseddaysleeper's game threads/health

2.) OKC






3.)the rest of the West

[urunobili]

Mavericks, Dallas

[boutons_deux]

Good N.B.A. Teams Jostle to Join the Best in the West

Once again, the N.B.A.’s Western Conference is so deep that there is a reasonable chance it will take 50 wins just to make the playoffs. In the Eastern Conference, only the Cavaliers and the Bulls are expected to win as many as 50.

Despite the relative parity out west, the San Antonio Spurs and the Oklahoma City Thunder have posted the top two records in the conference each of the last three seasons. There have been many very good teams in that time, but only two great ones. This season, the Los Angeles Clippers, the Golden State Warriors, the Memphis Grizzlies, the Portland Trail Blazers, the Houston Rockets and the Dallas Mavericks will make up the percolating class of teams trying to break up the dominance of the Spurs and the Thunder. One of the powerful subplots of the 2014-15 season will be tracking who will step forward from this group.

The narrow margins between these teams and the stakes of moving up one or two playoff spots to gain home-court advantage have created some of the league’s most passionate rivalries. The only team the Clippers dislike more than the Grizzlies is the Warriors, who really can’t stand the Rockets, the team that feuded with the Mavericks this off-season. Each team is searching for a way to break from the pack.

The conference’s two in bent superpowers offer competing models for reaching the top. The Thunder have the best player in the conference in Kevin Durant, the league’s most valuable player last season. They also have the all-N.B.A. point guard Russell Westbrook, and they use their speed and talent to bludgeon their opponents into submission. The Spurs may not have the best player, although they have plenty of talent, and they certainly have the best system. It has taken many seasons for Coach Gregg Popovich to acquire pieces, like Boris Diaw and Danny Green, that perfectly complement the core of Tim Duncan and Tony Parker, and to install a system that maximizes everyone’s ability.

Unseating the Thunder and the Spurs means overcoming incomparable talent or surpassing a culture and a system 15 seasons in the making. Getting ahead of either team can be compared to running a marathon at a full sprint.

...

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/27/sp...s&emc=rss&_r=0

[cd98]

The biggest threat is complacency. We've seen how good the Spurs can be when they play angry. After they so thoroughly dominated the NBA and won the le, I'm not sure they will bring it right off the back. I could be wrong, but I see them struggling through the first month with injuries and motivation. They need to get embarrassed a few times to get that anger back.

[will_spurs]

The biggest threat to any defending champ is themselves. Hopefully the Spurs manage to keep their act together.

Dallas is going to be tough. Carlisle is good. OKC would already have a le if Carlisle was coaching them.

After that OKC is the biggest threat, even with KD injured at the beginning of the season. They can still rely on the refs when in tough spots.

It's going to be interesting to see how good GSW and the Clippers can become with new coaches. However GSW is still a shoot-happy team, and the Clippers still have Chris Paul. For these reasons I don't see any of them reaching the WCF.

[timtonymanu]

The biggest threat is complacency. We've seen how good the Spurs can be when they play angry. After they so thoroughly dominated the NBA and won the le, I'm not sure they will bring it right off the back. I could be wrong, but I see them struggling through the first month with injuries and motivation. They need to get embarrassed a few times to get that anger back.

This is also true. Plus this is gonna be potentially their 3rd straight Finals run. Fatigue is going to have to set in.

[exstatic]

Isn't a referee's decision to blow his whistle one way or the other in a call that really could've gone either way precisely the very definition of luck?

Pop would say you make your luck.

[T Park]

Health, then, OKC, then, Dallas.

[ginobilized]

It's a wildest shootout this season. One of the contenders will likely fall to injuries and one might over-achieve a bit.
OKC has a lot to prove, if they can adapt AND Durant comes back near his capabilities, they are a nightmare.
Dallas will be very interesting and Houston's clock is ticking. It seems like another season in which the 6-8th seeds in the West could easily be in the
2-4 spot in the East. I predict a dogfight!

[Killakobe81]

OKC and Cleveland(to a lesser extent) are the only real threats to the Spurs, other than health(which is #1)..

All the other top teams(Clippers, Bulls, Warriors, Grizzlies) matchup pretty poorly with the Spurs..the Mavs aren't really a threat, last year's series was full of flukyness, they have way too many flaws to be a threat(horrible PGs, poor perimeter defense, Dirk's questionable health in April and forward)..

Agree with this iF Durant is healthy.
Refs are a non-factor, what a bunch of freaking babies.
Mavs are not to be taken lightly. Yes, they had some fluke plays in that series.
But RC is almost Pop's equal as a coach and Tyson provides the rim protection they lacked.
So many are afraid of Houston on here, Mavs will be better than the Rox this year.

[benstanfield]

Livingston - 1 knee

Barbosa - choker

Iggy - Wrong side of 30. I think he's only temporarily on the bench until Livingston is back, anyway.

Green - no defense, rebounding or ball handling. Undersized.

Ezeli - huh? He's nothing.



Their bench is no better than OKC's.

[benstanfield]

4-0 clowning LAC by 30