I just can't seem him staying in Dallas. Unless they can find a true building block next season. Pelicans would be a great fit for him to put together a team around Davis. Although I don't know much about their ownership and how much decision making they would let him do.
I still think he'd be great with the Spurs as FO has been great about finding quaility players who for the most part are charater guys.
I may be wrong but Carlisle doesn't strike me as the kind of coach who will just go to a big market to coach superstars. Seems like really likes the process of actually coaching players who want to be coached.