Bye Bye Rita, o Stan.

[tw05baller]

[SpursWoman]

The tropical disturbance in the central Caribbean sea, south of Jamiaca, is still small and has limited deep convection, but now has a well-defined circulation visible on satellite imagery. Winds measured at NOAA buoy 42058 located at 15N 85W also showed this circulation, as the winds at the buoy switched from east to west this morning when the disturbance passed by. Surface pressures did not falling significantly at the buoy when the disturbance passed by, so this is still a very weak low pressure area. Wind shear over the disturbance has fallen to the 5 - 10 knot range, which is in the slightly to moderately favorable range for tropical storm development. An upper-level anti-cyclone appears to be developing on top of the disturbance, which should greatly aid the upper-level outflow needed to take away all the air lifted to the upper atmosphere by the deep convection near the storm's center.

The disturbance has slowed its forward motion to about 10 mph to the west-northwest. This motion is forecast to slow down even further over the next three days, which will keep the system in the western Caribbean through Friday, and favor development. The reconnaissance airplane scheduled to visit the area today was cancelled, and has been rescheduled for Wednesday.

The upper-level wind shear is forecast to relax further during the next two days, and I expect this system to become Tropical Depression 19 on Wednesday--Thursday at the latest. The global computer models do not develop this system into a tropical storm, and are not much help in forecasting what will happen. The latest 12Z (8am EDT) run of the GFS model predicts that the system will move to a point just south of the western tip of Cuba on Friday, but dissipates the system after that.

[spurs=bling]

i'm gonna hurt somebody if that damn thing goes to galveston.

[hussker]

Stan...as in AFGHANI, UZBEKI, TURKMENI, KAZAHK...

Bush must have his magic Centipede ball out again directing another related STAN to hit the U.S....

HURRICANE = WMD?

Hmm...

[Manu20]

000
Abnt20 Knhc 280230
Twoat
Tropical Weather Outlook
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1030 Pm Edt Tue Sep 27 2005

For The North Atlantic...caribbean Sea And The Gulf Of Mexico...

A Tropical Wave Over The Central Caribbean Sea Is Producing
Cloudiness And A Few Thunderstorms Near Jamaica And Haiti... And
Over Adjacent Caribbean Waters. Even Though The Thunderstorm
Activity Has Greatly Decreased This Evening... Upper-level Winds
Are Expected To Become More Conducive For Development... And This
System Could Become A Tropical Depression During The Next Day Or
Two. An Air Force Reserve Unit Reconnaissance Aircraft Is Scheduled
To Investigate This System Tomorrow... If Necessary. Interests In
The Northwestern Caribbean Sea And Adjacent Land Areas Should
Closely Monitor The Progress Of This System During The Next Few
Days As It Moves West-northwestward At 10 To 15 Mph.

[MannyIsGod]

The Diurnal cycle should allow for convection to develop overnight.

[Solid D]

I told all my family and friends Rita would be nothing, and ill say it to yall this time...Stan will be nothing....nothing at all.....

Another quality post. Unless you are living in your car and doing bodily functions outside, which may be the case, I don't know how you can think you were "right" about Rita.

http://www.cnn.com/2005/US/09/27/rit....ap/index.html

Victims living 'like cavemen' after Rita
Residents still waiting for electricity, gasoline, water
Tuesday, September 27, 2005; Posted: 10:31 p.m. EDT (02:31 GMT)

A storm-damaged home in Port Sulphur, Louisiana, bears a message of resilience Tuesday.
Gallery: Rita's wrath

Map: Tracking Rita

• Rita leaves cattle stranded
• On The Scene: Reporters' blog
• Interactive: Landfall
SPECIAL REPORT

• Interactive: Safety Tips
• Gallery: Top 10 worst hurricanes
• Flash: How hurricanes form
• Gallery: Saffir-Simpson scale
• Special ReportYOUR E-MAIL ALERTS

Texas
Louisiana
Storm
or Create Your Own
Manage Alerts | What Is This? PORT ARTHUR, Texas (AP) -- Nearly four days after Hurricane Rita hit, many of the storm's sweltering victims along the Texas Gulf Coast were still waiting for electricity, gasoline, water and other relief Tuesday, prompting one top emergency official to complain that people are "living like cavemen."

In the hard-hit refinery towns of Port Arthur and Beaumont, crews struggled to cross debris-clogged streets to deliver generators and water to people stranded by Rita. They predicted it could be a month before power is restored, and said water and sewer systems could not function until more generators arrived.
Red tape was also blamed for the delays. (See video on grim situation on Gulf Coast -- 6:12)

Port Arthur Mayor Oscar Ortiz, whose own home was destroyed by fire after the hurricane, said "we've had 101 promises" for aid, "but it's all bureaucracy." He and other officials gathered at a hotel-turned-command center, where a dirty American flag found among hurricane debris was hung on the wall.

John Owens, emergency management coordinator and deputy police chief in the town of 57,000, said pleas for state and federal relief were met with requests for paperwork.

"We have been living like cavemen, sleeping in cars, doing bodily functions outside," he said.

Temperatures climbed into the upper 90s, and officials worried that swarms of mosquitoes might spread disease.

The White House on Tuesday said President Bush had extended complete federal funding for debris removal and other government assistance through October 27.

In Beaumont, state officials briefed Bush and Texas Gov. Rick Perry on relief efforts. Perry later visited Port Arthur, where local officials said it could be up to three to five days before people could return and three to five weeks before power is restored.

"There's always going to be those discombobulations, but the fact is, everyone is doing everything possible to restore power back to this area," Perry said.

About 476,000 people remained without electricity in Texas, in addition to around 285,000 in Louisiana. About 15,000 out-of-state utility workers were being brought to the region to help restore power.
Residents of some hard-hit towns were allowed to check on their homes but were not allowed to stay because of a lack of generators and ice.

About 2,000 Port Arthur residents who stayed through the storm were advised to find other places to live until utilities are restored. Ortiz said it could be two weeks before people are allowed back into Port Arthur.

After seeing a swarm of ravenous mosquitoes around his storm-battered home in Vidor, Harry Smith and his family decided to leave. They hitchhiked 10 miles to an emergency staging area and got on a bus to San Antonio.

"It can't be any worse than here," said Smith, 49, a pipefitter. "This is the worst storm I've seen in the 46 years I've lived here."

In Louisiana, Calcasieu Parish Police Jury President Hal McMillin said residents who come back would be without air conditioning, and risk insect bites and the mosquito-borne West Nile virus. A mandatory evacuation remained in effect for 10 southwestern Louisiana parishes.

"There's a good chance we could have an outbreak or something," McMillin said.

There were some signs of hope. In a Port Arthur neighborhood not far from a grocery store that reeked of rotten food, three Federal Emergency Management Agency semitrailers delivered ice, ready-to-eat meals and water.

"Without these trucks here, I don't think we would have made it," said Lee Smith, 50.

In Orange, people converged in cars and trucks outside a shopping strip for water, food and ice supplied by the private disaster group the Compassion Alliance.

"I know it's going to take some time, but we really appreciate this," Dorothy Landry, 66, said after waiting in the line. "I can't thank them enough."

Copyright 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

[Hook Dem]

I told all my family and friends Rita would be nothing, and ill say it to yall this time...Stan will be nothing....nothing at all.....

Just another case of a misinformed person spouting off for personal gain.

[CosmicCowboy]

Posted By: JeffMasters at 1:02 PM GMT on September 28, 2005
Updated: 1:44 PM GMT on September 28, 2005
The tropical disturbance in the central Caribbean sea, south of Jamaica, is struggling this morning. The amount of deep convection has decreased considerably since yesterday afternoon, and appears in small irregular patches around the weak circulation center. A reconnaissance airplane is scheduled to visit the area today but will be cancelled unless the disturbance shows some dramatic development in the next few hours. There is a small possibility of this happening, as the convection has made a bit of a comeback since 2am EDT when there was almost none. The environment for development still seems fair to good. Wind shear over the disturbance remains in the 5 - 10 knot range, which is in the slightly to moderately favorable range for tropical storm development. This wind shear is forecast to decrease the next two days, and I still expect we will see this system become Tropical Depression 19 by Friday.

The disturbance has speeded up its forward motion to about 13 mph to the west-northwest. This motion is forecast to slow down over the next few days, which will keep the system in the western Caribbean through Friday night. The BAMM and GFS models both forecast that the system will then cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enter the southwest Gulf of Mexico. This seems reasonable, given the strong ridge of high pressure developing over the Gulf of Mexico. Given the disturbance's current lack of organization and this expected track, the chances of this system growing into a hurricane that hits the U.S. are probably less than 10%.

[CosmicCowboy]

n addition, the NHC did run a few of the specialized tropical cyclone forecast models earlier
today and again this evening (see below).

BUT -- looking at the latest trends on water vapor imagery, there is dry air and very possibly some increased
westerly shears expected to reach into the northwest Caribbean over the next few days. The 00Z GFS no longer
really develops the system, instead opting for a broad area of lower pressure and 'wet weather'. I'm now of the
belief that unless the system develops into a Tropical Depression SOON -- and a Tropical storm
by Thursday -- it may not do either at all!

The reasoning for this is that tropical storms/hurricanes tend to develop a self -sustaining environment -- which
will only then, IMHO, be sufficient to fend off the overall weather pattern now being predicted by the global models.
So if the system doesn't manage to develop into a storm within 48 hours, the predicted synoptic scale pattern may very
well prevent it from doing so

This kind of reminds me of the 'system' back in mid August that looked so promising to develop into a Hurricane just
northeast of Puerto Rico, and then just failed completely as shear from nearby upper level cyclones inhibited any
further development. Although, a week later it suddenly started to develop -- and ended up becoming a storm
named Katrina. (DO NOT mis-interpret what I just said -- this is NO Katrina -- I'm really just referring to how
so many systems' that 'look' on the verge of intensifying -- suddenly end up falling apart.)

Unless there is a major development, the next full update will be in the late afternoon Wednesday.



Steve Gregory
WeatherInsite

[Spurfect]

Posted By: JeffMasters at 1:02 PM GMT on September 28, 2005
Updated: 1:44 PM GMT on September 28, 2005
The tropical disturbance in the central Caribbean sea, south of Jamaica, is struggling this morning. The amount of deep convection has decreased considerably since yesterday afternoon, and appears in small irregular patches around the weak circulation center. A reconnaissance airplane is scheduled to visit the area today but will be cancelled unless the disturbance shows some dramatic development in the next few hours. There is a small possibility of this happening, as the convection has made a bit of a comeback since 2am EDT when there was almost none. The environment for development still seems fair to good. Wind shear over the disturbance remains in the 5 - 10 knot range, which is in the slightly to moderately favorable range for tropical storm development. This wind shear is forecast to decrease the next two days, and I still expect we will see this system become Tropical Depression 19 by Friday.

The disturbance has speeded up its forward motion to about 13 mph to the west-northwest. This motion is forecast to slow down over the next few days, which will keep the system in the western Caribbean through Friday night. The BAMM and GFS models both forecast that the system will then cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enter the southwest Gulf of Mexico. This seems reasonable, given the strong ridge of high pressure developing over the Gulf of Mexico. Given the disturbance's current lack of organization and this expected track, the chances of this system growing into a hurricane that hits the U.S. are probably less than 10%.

Yay!!

[Ishta]

Anyone know what the latest is on this yet?

[tlongII]

evacuate! Quick!

[Ishta]

evacuate! Quick!

he wants to loot

[MannyIsGod]

It is right on the verge of being a tropical depression, but it hasn't quite made the jump yet.

[MannyIsGod]

Also, the center is much farther south today. So, I really think the chances of it moving into the Gulf have gone down dramaticaly because of that.

[Manu20]

The tropical disturbance in the western Caribbean sea, southwest of Jamaica, is now strengthening. The amount of deep convection has increased considerably since this morning, and this system now appears well on its way to becoming Tropical Depression 19 by tomorrow. A reconnaissance airplane is scheduled to visit the area Thursday morning at 8 am EDT.

Wind shear over the disturbance remains in the 5 - 10 knot range, which is in the slightly to moderately favorable range for tropical storm development. This wind shear is forecast to decrease the next two days. Upper level outflow channels have opened to the northeast and southwest, and a small upper-level anticyclone is over the system, helping ventilate the air pushed to the upper atmosphere by the strong updrafts in the storm's deep convection.

The disturbance is moving at about 13 mph to the west-northwest. This motion is forecast to slow down over the next few days, which will keep the system in the western Caribbean through Friday night. None of the computer forecast models develop the system, so their tracks of the disturbance are dubious. The GFS model takes the disturbance across western Cuba on Saturday. The BAMM model takes the system across the Yucatan Peninsula and into the southwest Gulf of Mexico. This seems more reasonable, given the strong ridge of high pressure developing over the Gulf of Mexico.

[Manu20]

A tropical disturbance in the Caribbean is a real problem. Models all want a much more southern path through the Yucatan with a system that is behind the feature near Jamaica. Suffice it to say, our disturbed weather has started in the Caribbean, but the final result in the Gulf (is it Texas or Mexico? That's tough to say). The idea is two developments, one for western Gulf and the other from northeast of Puerto Rico that heads for the Southeast coast

[MannyIsGod]

The 18z NAM shows Stan developing then moving into the Yucatan as a Tropical Storm. But it is doing so super slowly. The next model runs should be interesting.

[Manu20]

September 29, 2005 / 8:45 PM CDT

Today's RECON was unable to confirm that the low pressure system associated with the tropical disturbance in the Caribbean
has reached depression intensity -- or an overall structure they feel warrants calling this a depression. The NHC is still
planning another RECON tomorrow in case the system does manage to intensify and get better organized, overnight.

The lowest pressure the crew could find was 1009mb, and winds around the low pressure center averaged about 15Kts near
the surface. The surface center is is located near 17N/88.0W, or about 280NM east of Belize, and 280NM SE of Cozumel.
But it continues to be the same story in regards to the convection which persists well to the north and east of the low level
circulation center - and this is prohibiting the system from developing.

Last nights diurnal drop off of in convection was far less than the night before when it virtually vanished. The strongest
convection continues well to be over the Cayman Island and offshore of Cuba, extending southward for about 200 miles. The
most intense convection coincides, of course, with the major divergent flow aloft, associated with the large upper level
anticyclone centered between the Cayman Islands and Cuba. As I mentioned yesterday, unless the system managed to become
a depression today, and a storm by tomorrow -- I didn't think it ever would. I pretty much remained convinced of this -- with
the window of opportunity ending tomorrow.

Ultimately I expect this system to move westward across the Yucatan and eventually out into the east Pacific. - NOT the Gulf
of Mexico -- by Sunday. This is being forecast by the GFS and the NOGAPS models, and has now shown good continuity on
this track for the last 2 days. Wind gusts to 35mph in heavy squalls should be the worst of it from Cozumel/Cancun
southward to Belize -- with the showers and isolated thunderstorms reaching the coast by Friday night. After that, the GFS
spins the system up into a hurricane in a week, which then is forecast to move northwards towards Baja in about 10
days -- following on the heels of Tropical Storm Otis which is about to head for Baja in the next few days (see below).
It is VERY common for many tropical waves that do not manage to develop into cyclones in the Atlantic basin, to
ultimately cross central America and end up becoming tropical cyclones in the east Pacific.

What is rather interesting is the forecast development of a widespread and deep layered flow the lower tropics towards the
southeastern portion of the U.S. This is in response to the subtropical ridge moving eastward a bit and unusually far to the
north by mid week. A major moisture stream - with of course several 'vorticies' likely to be embedded within it, heading for
the U.S. The upper level wind pattern (200mb) is not forecast to be in a position or orientation, that would favor a tropical
storm to form. The GFS has been trying to create a system -- the NOGAPS hasn't -- and in this case, I'm leaning towards the
NOGAPS solution of just having a lot of 'wet and tropical shower' type weather dominate the entire southeast U.S.. If a
depression manages to form -- I doubt it would be much more than that. Too much wind shear, cooler ocean temps -- and too
far out in time :-)

And for those who like weather novelties -- the annual end of summer Monsoonal flow over the desert southwest and western
Mexico should see tropical storm Otis move across the Baja over the weekend, weakening to a depression by the time it
reaches the coast. The GFS brings the moisture from this system northward into the deserts of Arizona by the middle of
early next week -- and could kick up some rather impressive dust and rain storms could hit the area.

I'll have another update tomorrow afternoon - unless the system in the Caribbean should suddenly decide to intensify.

[Manu20]

The Hurricane center released this special advisory at 3 pm EDT today:

"Data from an Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft investigating the area of disturbed weather located between the Cayman Islands and Honduras indicate that the system remains disorganized and that a tropical depression has not formed. A large area of light and variable winds with a minimum pressure of 1009 mb...Or 29.80 inches... was detected about 170 miles southwest of Grand Cayman island. However... there is no thunderstorm activity collocated with the area of lowest pressure."

So, we will have to wait another day to see if this system will make up its mind whether or not it wants to be Stan the Man or Mr. Wimpy Tropical Blob. I still believe it will form into a tropical depression, but it's looking dicey for it to be anything more than a depression by the time it encounters the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday. Once Stan/Mr. Wimpy Tropical Blob crosses the Yucatan, it may have new wind shear and dry air to overcome. If the system does manage to develop, the Mexican Gulf Coast or Texas look like the most likely targets.

[MannyIsGod]

I'm looking at the runs and I don't know wtf Gregory is taking about. The GFS splits the low into 2 sections and one section definetly comes into the Gulf. The local NWS guys keep mentioning this as the tropical wave that will come ashore in Texas early next week.

The system is getting better organized tonight. The NAM still wants to develop it into at least a depression but the GFS isn't so sure yet. I don't know what the it is going to do, but I can't see it making it up to hurricane status with the Yucatan so damn close.

Interestingly enough, Gregory just sent out an email about the storm:

Last night's diurnal drop off of in convection was far less than the night before when it virtually vanished. The strongest
convection continues well to be over the Cayman Island and offshore of Cuba, extending southward for about 200 miles. The
most intense convection coincides, of course, with the major divergent flow aloft, associated with the large upper level
anticyclone centered between the Cayman Islands and Cuba. As I mentioned yesterday, unless the system managed to become
a depression soon, and a storm by Friday afternoon, - I don't think it ever would. I pretty much remained convinced of this -- with
the window of opportunity ending in about 24 hours.

That said: latest imagery this evening show a marked INCREASE in convection much closer to the low level
center - in stark contrast to last the prior two nights. Pressures have fallen at a the few locations data is
available from, and the buoy about 160NM NW of the system has shown a some gusts near 20mph now, and the 1 ft seas
are now 2-3ft all in the last 3 hours.

Ultimately I expect this system to move westward across the Yucatan and eventually out into the Gulf of Mexico --
by Sunday. The GFS is now picking up on the surface low movement. Wind gusts to 45mph in heavy squalls should be the worst of it from Cozumel/Cancun southward to north of Belize where showers & thunderstorms could produce wind gusts to 30mph -- with the showers and
thunderstorms reaching the coast by Friday night.

[MannyIsGod]

BTW, the GFS is also generating about 3 storms out in the Atlantic over the next couple of weeks. I would imagine at least if not 2 of those would end up forming.

[Vashner]

Woah it's like 65 outside.. nice.. ahhh...

I wish I could stay up all night and get some taco breakfast with the cool snap..

I love my Texas...

[MannyIsGod]

Well, this damn low finally got it's together tonight. It probably won't be Stan though. Stan should be the storm out in the middle of the Atlantic. But it will probably at least be TD20.