Spurs v OKC: Tale of the Tape & Series Prediction

[DPG21920]

First of all, nice write-up, and thanks for taking the time.

I'll chime in with what I think will be keys:

All season, when OKC gets to the fourth quarter, it's the Westbrook-Durant Show. And it's not even a two-man game... it's two one-man games. It's their strength when it works, and it's their downfall when those two can't get it done. I don't think that's going to change to any great degree. To me, that says that that Key #1 to this series is Kawhi/Danny defense in the fourth quarters. It will be up to those two guys to make sure that The Westbrook-Durant show doesn't win fourth quarters. It will be up to Pop to make sure those two guys are fresh, late in the game.

The next biggest issue is that OKC has two big men who scored right at 1,000 points each in the regular season. Ibaka was a workhorse, and played 2,500 minutes. But Kanter's numbers are actually MUCH better, on a Per-36 minute basis. In fact, Kanter's regular season Per-36 Points and Rebounds are more than 50% higher than Ibaka's, and his FTA's Per-36 minutes are three times Ibaka's. In the playoffs, Kanter's Points and RB's Per-36 are almost double Ibaka's, and his FTA's Per-36 are over 6X Ibaka's. Yikes! Key#2 - frustrate Penes Kanter. Drive on him and draw fouls (he commits a LOT of fouls). Deny him the ball. Pay attention to boxing him out on the boards.

The third key is assists. The Spurs dish out more AST's per game than OKC, but every player on the team contributes. Parker leads the team, with 19% of their total AST's for the season. Second is Patty, with 11% of the Spurs' total assists. But... on the OKC side, Westbrook accounts for 44% of his team's total assists. In a 7-game series, Westbrook isn't going to beat you by himself. Key #3 - Force Westbrook to be a shooter, rather than let him make his teammates better. Westbrook playing Hero Ball will doom the team. The good news is, he loves playing Hero Ball.

All really good points and I view these as the effect where my post highlighted the cause. This is sort of the nitty gritty of what happens when OKC is doing what they staticisally do well. They are still relatively ISO heavy, especially in late game situations. They don't have a lot of options though because they don't have a lot of shooters.

I think everyone agrees Kanter is a big deal and he's definitely OKC's best chance at having a consistent 3rd scorer.

Spurs have to execute. I know it's generic but it's true. Especially in late game situations. OKC's defense, while active, is not really that good. Spurs should be able to manufacture good shots - they just have to avoid silly TO's because if they just take care of the ball, they will get good shots.

[DPG21920]

Great write-up.

I think the deciding factor this series will actually be how OKC uses their bench. I see them trying to put Kanter on the floor a lot, but they do NOT have a 2nd 5 that can stop Patty AND Manu AND Diaw on offense. The Spurs are going to absolutely tear into that soft second unit that's typically guard heavy and very small, weight wise.

Outside of Ibaka, the Dubs have no answer for any of the Spurs bigs. Clear him out of the lane and let the other guys post up. I could see them sticking Ibaka on LMA and staying home on other bigs. Diaw, Duncan, and West should be able to have their way with anyone else that OKC tries to throw at them.

Great write-up OP. I plan to be doing game grades for every game in the series.

I really don't know how they will use their bench. With Donovan being a rookie coach, I can see him going into panic mode if they are down and not trusting the bench enough to rest WB/Durant. Kanter is going to get minutes. He's been someone that has been favored a lot, but other than that, I think WB/KD play 42-44 MPG (if it's close).

OKC bigs are agile and move well on the permiter but they really excel at grabbing boards then running the floor hard. Spurs have to hit shots against OKC or else they will be dealing with WB and bigs streaking down the floor.

Looking forward to the game grades

[Holden_Caulfield]

If they win the opening home games, that's my call (possibly even a sweep). If not, this goes six or seven.

we should win both home games by double digits tbh

[GSH]

All really good points and I view these as the effect where my post highlighted the cause.

OKC's defense, while active, is not really that good. Spurs should be able to manufacture good shots - they just have to avoid silly TO's because if they just take care of the ball, they will get good shots.

Heh... I came late to basketball, from other sports. A lot of you guys are much better with the cause than me. That's why I come here.

OKC's (lack of) defense was exposed pretty badly, even against Dallas. The TO's don't even worry me as much (within reason) as making sure to get good, high-percentage shots.

I talk a lot about high-variance ball: If you make 40% of your 3-pointers, as a team, it would be considered damn good. Only Golden State did better this season. Most people would say that is the equivalent of shooting 60% on your 2-point attempts, since both versions yield 1.2 points per attempt. BUT... if you're shooting 40% from 3P, it means that on 60% of your possessions, you come away with nothing. If you're shooting 60% on your 2-pointers, it means that only 40% of your possessions are empty. That's big for two reasons:

First, shooting the high-percentage 2-pointers means a lot less chances for the other team to get out and run on you. You can force the other team into a half-court offense, which is a huge advantage for the Spurs. Second, if you're shooting high-variance 3-pointers, you get hurt a lot worse by mini-slumps during a game. e.g. - if you're shooting 40%, you won't hit 4 out of 10 constantly. You might make 6 of your first 10, and only 2 of your second 10. Obviously it evens out over time. But if the clock runs out before things even out, you lose. Manu has always been a high-variance player, which is why he can be so maddening. When he's on, he generates a lot of action across his stat line - but when he hits those spells where he's not clicking, he accounts for a LOT of empty possessions. It evens out over time, but in a close game, slow and steady is better than streaky.

You're 100% right - the Spurs SHOULD be able to manufacture good shots. Against a team that isn't great defensively, the Spurs don't need a lot of 3-point possessions. They need a lot of boring, high-percentage 2-point shots. They've got to stick to that game plan, and not get caught up in playing OKC's game. That's a lot harder on the road, and it will be a big test for the younger players, especially.

[DPG21920]

Heh... I came late to basketball, from other sports. A lot of you guys are much better with the cause than me. That's why I come here.

OKC's (lack of) defense was exposed pretty badly, even against Dallas. The TO's don't even worry me as much (within reason) as making sure to get good, high-percentage shots.

I talk a lot about high-variance ball: If you make 40% of your 3-pointers, as a team, it would be considered damn good. Only Golden State did better this season. Most people would say that is the equivalent of shooting 60% on your 2-point attempts, since both versions yield 1.2 points per attempt. BUT... if you're shooting 40% from 3P, it means that on 60% of your possessions, you come away with nothing. If you're shooting 60% on your 2-pointers, it means that only 40% of your possessions are empty. That's big for two reasons:

First, shooting the high-percentage 2-pointers means a lot less chances for the other team to get out and run on you. You can force the other team into a half-court offense, which is a huge advantage for the Spurs. Second, if you're shooting high-variance 3-pointers, you get hurt a lot worse by mini-slumps during a game. e.g. - if you're shooting 40%, you won't hit 4 out of 10 constantly. You might make 6 of your first 10, and only 2 of your second 10. Obviously it evens out over time. But if the clock runs out before things even out, you lose. Manu has always been a high-variance player, which is why he can be so maddening. When he's on, he generates a lot of action across his stat line - but when he hits those spells where he's not clicking, he accounts for a LOT of empty possessions. It evens out over time, but in a close game, slow and steady is better than streaky.

You're 100% right - the Spurs SHOULD be able to manufacture good shots. Against a team that isn't great defensively, the Spurs don't need a lot of 3-point possessions. They need a lot of boring, high-percentage 2-point shots. They've got to stick to that game plan, and not get caught up in playing OKC's game. That's a lot harder on the road, and it will be a big test for the younger players, especially.

For sure - haha, wasn't implying anything by the cause/effect comment - just making note that it was good to go into the effect because all I really focused on was high level cause. The effect is very important to discuss in terms of getting down to the nitty gritty.

You really described basketball in a nut s . The objective is to create the highest percentage looks on offense and to give up the lowest percentage looks on defense. Then beyond that, it has to do with tailoring that to your team and running things that fit your personnel.

You can't control anything beyond the percentages, which is why you hear so many coaches talk about "making shots". Just because you are missing (unless it's a fundamental flaw in your talent) does not mean the offense is functioning poorly - that's the hard part of the game and what we've seen with SA the past few weeks on offense.

[BillMc]

First of all, nice write-up, and thanks for taking the time.

I'll chime in with what I think will be keys:

All season, when OKC gets to the fourth quarter, it's the Westbrook-Durant Show. And it's not even a two-man game... it's two one-man games. It's their strength when it works, and it's their downfall when those two can't get it done. I don't think that's going to change to any great degree. To me, that says that that Key #1 to this series is Kawhi/Danny defense in the fourth quarters. It will be up to those two guys to make sure that The Westbrook-Durant show doesn't win fourth quarters. It will be up to Pop to make sure those two guys are fresh, late in the game.

The next biggest issue is that OKC has two big men who scored right at 1,000 points each in the regular season. Ibaka was a workhorse, and played 2,500 minutes. But Kanter's numbers are actually MUCH better, on a Per-36 minute basis. In fact, Kanter's regular season Per-36 Points and Rebounds are more than 50% higher than Ibaka's, and his FTA's Per-36 minutes are three times Ibaka's. In the playoffs, Kanter's Points and RB's Per-36 are almost double Ibaka's, and his FTA's Per-36 are over 6X Ibaka's. Yikes! Key#2 - frustrate Penes Kanter. Drive on him and draw fouls (he commits a LOT of fouls). Deny him the ball. Pay attention to boxing him out on the boards.

The third key is assists. The Spurs dish out more AST's per game than OKC, but every player on the team contributes. Parker leads the team, with 19% of their total AST's for the season. Second is Patty, with 11% of the Spurs' total assists. But... on the OKC side, Westbrook accounts for 44% of his team's total assists. In a 7-game series, Westbrook isn't going to beat you by himself. Key #3 - Force Westbrook to be a shooter, rather than let him make his teammates better. Westbrook playing Hero Ball will doom the team. The good news is, he loves playing Hero Ball.

Nice write up!

IMO Spurs in 5. I'm more confident this time around than I was in 2014 for sure. My reasons:

MVPs:
Last time OKC had (in theory) the best player on the court. Now not so much. Neither Durant or Westbrook are gonna be better than Kawhi in this Series. Spurs wings matchup very well with those two and as with Miami, there's something about OKC that Kawhi loves to up his game.

Spurs Killers:
They no longer have Spurs Killer Jackson. This time, they got Dion Waiters instead. A very inefficient player that likes to think he's better than he really is, which can be as dangerous as disastrous, but hasn't reached those Reggie's "I'm gonna the Spurs" levels yet.

Health:
Tony is in much better health this time and the Spurs are no longer so dependent of his production. Both variables a plus. Although we can say the same about Ibaka, he's much older. As I said in this other --> thread, Ibaka is no longer in his ultimate prime years. He's way older than his stated age of 26 y/o. I say he's at least 32 y/o. Since 2014 (supposedly 24 y/o) Ibaka has regressed considerably in points, rebounds, true-shooting, BPM, blocks, PER and win-shares while playing basically the same minutes. This age fiasco is all speculation on my part but a solid one as African players have a tendency (sometimes on purpose, sometimes is just life) to hide their true age.

Bigs:
No longer we have a nice but brittle defensively minded Center in Tiago, but a much more durable, agile, offensively minded and not-so-slouch-in-defense-after-all PF in LaMarcus Aldridge. As bunch of you already said, the only big I'm worried about is Kanter and his offensive boards domination. He can easily be their X-Factor. The good thing is that he's still a liability on defense which could be a tailor-made matchup for the GOAT.

Coaches:
Really?

Nice writeups guys. Spurstalk really rolling in this thread.

[DenialTwist]

X factors- Dion Waiters for OKC and Danny Green for Spurs.

Waiters seems to heat up against the Spurs and goes off when we are doing a good job on WB/Durant.

Green will need to be able to make it tough for one of Durant or Westbrook and hitting open 3's with OKC bigs wanting to pack the paint is vital.

If waiters heats up it will be because Parker and Mills are guarding him. But because it's the playoffs, Waiters won't touch the ball. Durant and Westbrook will hog the ball for 40+ minutes.

[SD126]

Spurs in 6 regardless. But we need BOTH games 1 & 2 at home, and we'll take care of business.

[Russo21]

Nice write ups from all, thanks for the read. Spurs in 4

[emanueldavidginobili]

I'm so excited for this game, but also nervous.

Like everyone else already said Game 1 is going to be very important. Kawhi and Durant will be playing the same amount of minutes whenever he's on the court KL will be too. I think this series comes down to containing RW and limiting second chance opportunities and Danny Green knocking down the open three. That's what makes this team really dangerous is their second chance opportunities because they are usually good at converting on them. If the Spurs neutralize the Thunders others like Waiters, Morrow, Ibaka, rebound and maintain a good pace I think the Spurs will be fine their not going to Sweep them but if they play to their potential this series ends in 5 maybe 6 games.

[NameLess Scrub]

I think almost anybody in the Spurs can be an X factor, but I think especially the old big 3, because it usually takes one or more of them to turn back the clock in a series for the team to get to the next level.

OKC's X factor might be Waiters as JR Smith is to the Cavs. Not so good players, but capable of exploding and blowing up your defensive plan.

[EVAY]

Great write-up OP. I plan to be doing game grades for every game in the series.

This is something we will all look forward to reading. Thanks in advance.

[TampaDude]

WWLWW. Spurs in 5. Book it.

[NameLess Scrub]

Looking at some of the things said in this thread makes me remember, I hope WB/KD follow their trend of taking the games for themselves, specially in the 4th quarter. Play tons of minutes and shoot everything, don't trust their teammates, twist their rookie coach's arm. Then they can live and die with their mistakes, get tired at the end of games, and just wear down throughout the series.

If Kanter gets scored often and Waiters chucks a lot thinking he's better than he is, that would be a plus and make up for a must watch series.

[NameLess Scrub]

Spurs wings matchup very well with those two and as with Miami, there's something about OKC that Kawhi loves to up his game.

Kawhi might get annoyed and extra motivated by star players that get lots of hype and calls, that gloat, or are divas in general. Considering his personality it wouldn't surprise me.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

Parker's penetration and Green's shooting will be the x-factors for the Spurs imo.

I hope Pop starts West and Aldridge, trying to find space for attacking the rim early and then have Duncan contain Kanter's O rebounding, then attacking Kanter with PnRs and post ups with the 2nd unit.

[Gervin44Silas13]

REBOUND REBOUND REBOUND....!!!!!

Spurs in 6

[FromWayDowntown]

tbh, hate to bring it up because I've not complained about it pretty much all season, but fouls are going to be a biggie in this series. Especially on the road.

Somewhat relevant:

Significant Active Officials -- road teams in Conference Semifinals 2007-2015 (sorted by away winning percentage):

OFFICIAL		hW	aW	a%
FRAHER, PAT		2	4	0.667
LEWIS, ERIC		1	2	0.667
PHILLIPS, JASON		7	10	0.588
DAVIS, MARC		9	10	0.526
CAPERS, JAMES		10	10	0.500
SMITH, MICHAEL		5	5	0.500
CORBIN, SEAN		5	5	0.500
ZIELINSKI, GARY		1	1	0.500
CRAWFORD, DAN		15	14	0.483
STAFFORD, DERRICK	12	10	0.455
SPOONER, BILL		10	8	0.444
FOSTER, SCOTT		18	13	0.419
MALLOY, ED		12	8	0.400
KENNEDY, BILL		11	7	0.389
GARRETSON, RON		15	9	0.375
ZARBA, ZACH		7	4	0.364
GOBLE, JOHN		8	4	0.333
MCCUTCHEN, MONTY	21	10	0.323
CALLAHAN, MIKE		19	9	0.321
MAUER, KEN		20	9	0.310
WASHINGTON, TOM		18	8	0.308
BROTHERS, TONY		16	6	0.273
MOTT, RODNEY		5	1	0.167
WRIGHT, SEAN		6	1	0.143

[Brazil]

Nice stuff DPG thanks

[said7]

OKC in crunch time blows. Keep it tight and the game is yours.

[DPG21920]

I'm working wondering if Pop is going to go Tayshaun Prince on Robertson. Just exaggerating everything to force and bait him into shooting.

I don't see how a team with a non shooter survives against a focused Spurs team.

[024]

The 3 should be pretty important. OKC has no decent 3 point shooting role players outside of maybe Waiters. If OKC stays at their season averages, Durant and Westbrook will have to do everything.

Ibaka had a great 3 point shooting % in the Dallas series though. Can't allow that to happen again. Don't know if Aldridge is up to the task of guarding Ibaka out to the 3 point line.

[Budkin]

What Spur-killers does OKC have left? No Harden and no Reggie Jackson. I don't know why everyone is flipping out.

[TD 21]

I think too many think this will be easier than it will be in actuality.

As I've talked about ad nauseam the past few years, these assholes play with supreme confidence against the Spurs and unfortunately, it's not reciprocated, though having two in their prime stars, one of whom is at the level of the Thunder's two, should help with the latter.

On top of that, it's been obvious for years that they're jealous of the Spurs, dislike them and would love nothing more than to beat them. Rightly or wrongly, I'm sure they feel that had Westbrook been healthy throughout the playoffs in '13 and Ibaka played the first two games of the WCF in '14, they'd have been in the Finals. Throw in the possibility of Durant leaving and their motivation will be sky high. Not that the Spurs' won't be, for obvious reasons, but still.

The numbers might point to Spurs in 6, but I've seen too many alarming signs from this team (especially on the road) to feel confident in that, so I'll go Spurs in 7. Thunder in 6 wouldn't shock me though.

[peacemaker885]

Spurs in 5.