Wilma: Deja Vu

[ObiwanGinobili]

omg.
I saw on the news that Wilma was now a cat.5.... and I came right on here to Spurstalk, wondering: "hmmm maybe there is a Wilma thread".


why did I even question it? I should have just assumed that there was.




meanwhile I shall now read this thread front to back and back to front seeing as how all the best and most up to date hurricane info in the world comes thru here.

[Vashner]

I am worried about Isla Mujeres too..

[spurs=bling]

meanwhile I shall now read this thread front to back and back to front seeing as how all the best and most up to date hurricane info in the world comes thru here.

you have to thank Manny.

[MannyIsGod]

haha, I just relay what I read from the NHC. Manu20 knows his too.

[John T]

So what's going on now? I heard something about it only being a Cat 1 when and if it hits Florida now?


Carie

[MannyIsGod]

Doubtful. Depending on what happens on its turn and interaction with the Yucatan we should still see a major (cat 3 or above) storm when it hits Florida. Its a cat 4 right now because its going an eye wall replacement cycle but I think it'll pick up again sometime tomorrow.

[John T]

Oh. Thanks for clearing that up. I wonder where they were getting their information. They live in Florida. Hopefully that's not the information that's being disseminated to the masses.


Carie

[baseline bum]

Goddamn I'm so sick of hearing the phrase eyewall replacement cycle. Is this stupid hurricane season ever going to end?

[MannyIsGod]

Goddamn I'm so sick of hearing the phrase eyewall replacement cycle. Is this stupid hurricane season ever going to end?

Yeah, that and "loop current" became the media's favorite catch phrases this summer/fall.

[Nbadan]

Goddamn I'm so sick of hearing the phrase eyewall replacement cycle. Is this stupid hurricane season ever going to end?

Have you seen this forming directly behind Wilma?



For reference:

[MannyIsGod]

Too much sheer in that area for any development. Values are running near 40kts for sheer in the area it is entering.

[ObiwanGinobili]

CNN is (for once) not spreading fear and panic...
they are acting like wilma will only be a cat1 once she gets past the yucatan and she will only swipe the Keys of Florida, not central florida.

but I'll only believe that if I hear it from Manny.
Meanwhile, just what I'm seeing with my uneducated eyes makes me disbelieve the CnN weather chick.

[Ishta]

Yeah, that and "loop current" became the media's favorite catch phrases this summer/fall.

don't forget a whole of alot of people have "hunkered down" this hurricane season too!! I have heard that phrase so much I could vomit

[Ishta]

CNN is (for once) not spreading fear and panic...
they are acting like wilma will only be a cat1 once she gets past the yucatan and she will only swipe the Keys of Florida, not central florida.

but I'll only believe that if I hear it from Manny.
Meanwhile, just what I'm seeing with my uneducated eyes makes me disbelieve the CnN weather chick.

I know it's off topic, but how are you feeling Obi?

[ObiwanGinobili]

I know it's off topic, but how are you feeling Obi?

Well I've actually had a freakin stomach flu :vomit :vomit the last 2 days! UGH!
Just now gettign over it. I'm sooo mad that I got sick.
my mother in law had to come up here and is takign care of me and my house.
(you know I'm desperate when I allow that crap )

But to day I'm feeling alot better (thank the lord for Phengran!) and I'm hoping to be 100% by tonight so I can wake up all chipper and bushy tailed tomarrow!

Otherwise I'm jsut a bit ansy and on edge casue it;s so close to the end - ya know? I have a butterflies/i'm hungry but i'm not feeling in my chest.

I can't wait!

thanks for asking!

[Ishta]

Well I've actually had a freakin stomach flu :vomit :vomit the last 2 days! UGH!
Just now gettign over it. I'm sooo mad that I got sick.
my mother in law had to come up here and is takign care of me and my house.
(you know I'm desperate when I allow that crap )

But to day I'm feeling alot better (thank the lord for Phengran!) and I'm hoping to be 100% by tonight so I can wake up all chipper and bushy tailed tomarrow!

Otherwise I'm jsut a bit ansy and on edge casue it;s so close to the end - ya know? I have a butterflies/i'm hungry but i'm not feeling in my chest.

I can't wait!

thanks for asking!

Your very welcome. I know everything will be a go for you tommorow. You must not be feeling good to allow the mother in law over. I would have to be practically dead to have mine come to my house especially if I was sick..She would try to start running things her way, and would totally reorganize my house to where I couldn't find a thing! All will be well you've done this before!!

[Nbadan]

Too much sheer in that area for any development. Values are running near 40kts for sheer in the area it is entering.

For those interested, the latest loop is an excellent example of how wind sheer can rip apart a developing low.




Here is the developing low today relative to Hurricane Wilma..



Still, if this low creeps enough to the West and gets into the warm Caribbean waters, all bets are off. To early to tell, but given this hurricane season, I wouldn't bet against it just yet.

[MannyIsGod]

CNN may be right. It really just depends on how much Wilma intereacts with the Yucatan. If she actually makes landfall or comes really close, she could lose a lot of steam.

However, I don't think she'll be a catagory 1 when she gets to Florida. Catagory 2 at best, but depending on if she gets stronger today when her EWRC that may be wishful thinking as well.

[Manu20]

This is the latest GFS run. It does not look good for Cancun and Cozumel.

This is in 24 hours.


And this is in 72 hours.

[Manu20]

As of 4pm cdt Hurricane Wilma has sustained winds of 150mph with gusts to 185mph and the minimum pressure is 918mb.

[Manu20]

Hurricane Wilma Discussion Number 22


Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on October 20, 2005



Wilma has turned northwestward...310/5...but this is not necessarily
the beginnings of recurvature. A short-wave trough in the
westerlies...the old low from Baja California...will move past the
longitude of the hurricane by tomorrow morning...and the track
models show a slight Bend back to the left as a little ridging
builds in behind it. In fact...the global models are now
suggesting that it may take three short waves to lift Wilma out of
the Yucatan. The GFDL did another big shift with its 5-day
forecast...from Canada at 6z to Cuba at 12z. There is less spread
in the GFS ensemble members this time...however...lending a little
more credence to a slower track. The 12z models also had the
benefit of dropwindsonde data from the NOAA gulfstream jet. The
new official forecast is slower than the previous one...but is
still very much faster than all of the available guidance. This
implies that the impact to Florida could well be later than
indicated here.
There is very little left of the inner eyewall...and reports from a
NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that Wilma is beginning to
restrengthen. Peak flight level winds were 145 kt...and the SFMR
instrument onboard measured a surface wind of 125 kt in the north
eyewall. Based on these observations...the initial intensity is
set at 130 kt. The upper-level outflow pattern remains strong and
Wilma will have the opportunity to regain category five status
before it reaches the Yucatan...and the impacts there could be
catastrophic. With the likelihood of a more extended interaction
with the Yucatan increasing...significant weakening is possible
before Wilma turns toward Florida. In addition...the longer Wilma
lingers before turning northeastward...the more hostile the
atmospheric environment will become for strengthening over the Gulf
of Mexico.

Forecaster Franklin

[Manu20]

Hurricane Wilma made its expected turn northwest, and is now headed towards Cozumel Island as an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane capable of massive destruction. A new hurricane hunter plane arrived at the center at 2:45 pm EDT, and found a central pressure of 918 mb and surface winds of 150 mph. The 4:16 pm report had the same pressure and winds, so Wilma has leveled out in intensity. Wilma has completed an eyewall replacement cycle, and now has a large 40 mile diameter eye. Some intensification is likely the next 18 hours before Wilma comes ashore in the Yucatan. It is possible Wilma can eclipse its record 882 mb pressure, but she probably will not have enough time to do that.

Wilma's impact on Mexico

Wilma's impact on Mexico is likely to be catastrophic. A 50-mile wide stretch of coast will receive Category 4 to 5 sustained winds of over 150 mph, causing incredible damage. As Wilma sits in place for two days, the long duration of high winds will cause far more damage than a quickly moving storm would. The long duration extreme winds will probably cause some of the worst wind damage ever seen in a hurricane. The storm surge will not be as much as a problem, because deep water just offshore will prevent a huge storm surge from piling up. Still, the expected storm surge of up to 11 feet will cause widespread damage to coastal structures.In adddition, rainfall amounts of 15 - 25 will cause serious flooding. Wilma is likely to be Mexico's worst weather disaster in history.

[Vashner]

Smoke dust and sand whirls?? lol

Cozumel Civ / Mil , Mexico
(MMCZ) 20-32N 086-56W

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Conditions at Oct 20, 2005 - 04:00 PM EDTOct 20, 2005 - 03:00 PM CDTOct 20, 2005 - 02:00 PM MDTOct 20, 2005 - 01:00 PM PDTOct 20, 2005 - 12:00 PM ADTOct 20, 2005 - 11:00 AM HDT
2005.10.20 2000 UTC
Weather Smoke,
Well developed dust or sand whirls,
ob MMCZ 202000Z FUSE POR WILMA

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Precipitation Ac ulation
Precipitation
Amount
6.28 inches In the 6 hours preceding Oct 20, 2005 - 08:00 AM EDT / 2005.10.20 1200 UTC

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

24 Hour Summary
Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F (C) Dew Point
F (C) Pressure
Inches (hPa) Wind
MPH Weather
Latest 4 PM (20) Oct 20 smoke, ; well developed dust or sand whirls,
3 PM (19) Oct 20 84 (29) 77 (25) 29.6 (1002) ENE 46
2 PM (18) Oct 20 86 (30) 77 (25) 29.61 (1002) ENE 40 haze
1 PM (17) Oct 20 84 (29) 78 (26) 29.65 (1004) NNE 23 haze
Noon (16) Oct 20 84 (29) 78 (26) 29.63 (1003) NNE 23 haze
11 AM (15) Oct 20 82 (28) 77 (25) 29.64 (1003) NNE 28 haze
10 AM (14) Oct 20 82 (28) 77 (25) 29.62 (1003) NNE 35 haze
9 AM (13) Oct 20 82 (28) 78 (26) 29.65 (1004) NNE 29 haze
8 AM (12) Oct 20 82 (28) 78 (26) 29.65 (1004) ENE 28
7 AM (11) No Data
6 AM (10) No Data
5 AM (9) No Data
4 AM (8) No Data
3 AM (7) No Data
2 AM (6) No Data
1 AM (5) No Data
Midnight (4) No Data
11 PM (3) Oct 19 78 (26) 78 (26) 29.73 (1006) ENE 9 haze
10 PM (2) Oct 19 75 (24) 75 (24) 29.73 (1006) NNW 16 light rain, haze
9 PM (1) Oct 19 78 (26) 77 (25) 29.72 (1006) W 17
8 PM (0) Oct 19 77 (25) 77 (25) 29.73 (1006) ENE 12
7 PM (23) Oct 19 77 (25) 77 (25) 29.73 (1006) ENE 17 rain
6 PM (22) Oct 19 80 (27) 75 (24) 29.73 (1006) ENE 21
Oldest 5 PM (21) Oct 19 86 (30) 78 (26) 29.72 (1006) NE 23

[scott]

I predict that scott scores a great cruise deal sometime next week as a result of Wilma.

[Vashner]

No updates? ...

The eye seems to look well formed now..