It's tough. This is probably the most difficult season to predict since, what, 1989-90?
With Dejounte, I thought the Spurs could win 50+ pretty easily as long as a few things broke in their favor. Dejounte isn't the best player on the team but there's a chance he was going to be the most impactful, especially on a per minute basis. The team's defense would have been a lock for the top ten as long as he played 30+ minutes per game.
It wasn't the end of the world when Dejounte got hurt because Derrick White projects to possibly be better than any Spurs guard in quite a while. He put up better stats in Austin and summer league than Kyle Anderson, Dejounte, Cory Joseph, etc.
But now with Dejounte and White out? Damn.
I think the Spurs are about a 47-win team if Aldridge plays at the same level as last season, DeRozan plays at the same level as last season, the Spurs can get somewhere in the neighborhood of league average production out of their point guard position as a whole (Mills, Forbes, the return of White) and they stay reasonably healthy. Those are four pretty big question marks -- Aldridge is getting up there in age, DeRozan will be adjusting, the PGs on paper look to be quite a bit below average and injuries are already mounting up.
So, after thinking about this a whole lot, I see it as follows:
38 wins if most everything goes wrong
44 wins with average luck
47 wins with good luck
50 wins with good luck and a re-energized and determined Pop coaching the Spurs to three extra wins
My official prediction will thus be 50 wins because I think Pop is up for the challenge, will be relieved without the Nephew drama and the other question marks will break in the Spurs favor.
