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Saric is better than every one of those scrubs.
Spurs don't pick average players late in the 1st round. Truth bomb: they had a graph a while back that showed average the career win shares for each position in the draft, over a number of years. There was the expected curve/slope downwards from one into the 20s, but there was a little tail-up in the late 20s. It was the Spurs picks: Parker(111.4), Beno(31.4), Splitter(25.3), Hill(58.9), Mahinmi(24.7),CoJo(21), Kyle(15). Even guys who moved on had nice careers elsewhere.
Take heart: you could be a Timberwolves fan. Here's a smattering of their LOTTERY picks over the years. Kris Dunn(1.3), Zach Lavine(6.7),Trey Burke(9.0),Derrick Williams(14.7),Wes Johnson(11.0), Johnny Flynn(-1.1)
It's not where the pick is, it's who's doin' the pickin'. Thought most of you would have figured that out by now.
Saric is better than every one of those scrubs.
Saric is better than anyone I can think of the Spurs drafting in the late 20s except Porker tbh. He'll have a better career than Tiago.
Spurs love to pick up draft and stash Euroscrubs in the late 20s tbh that never see SA (Mulinotov, etc.).
Last edited by Play Boban; 02-06-2019 at 04:20 PM.
Saric is better than every one of those scrubs.
Murray may end up better but I haven't seen enough from him yet and he's injury prone...
Spurs future starting frontcourt: Bertans, Saric, Poeltl.
Yeah, I like Bertans and I like White. Those are the ones every ten draft pick that go well, tbh.
How big a chance do you think we have of drafting a better player than Saric? Give a % number.
Which players have the Spurs drafted in the late 20's that are better than Saric?
Last edited by DAF86; 02-06-2019 at 05:45 PM.
You forgot Dieng. We ain’t getting Saric without Dieng’s horrible contract attached to him.Spurs future starting frontcourt: Bertans, Saric, Poeltl.
For me, Saric doesn't move the goalposts enough to justify a trade. Also, think of it this way: maybe the 29th pick doesn't amount to much, but how valuable in a trade is something like DeRozan + draft pick? Or how much could the Spurs move up if they traded both first rounders and a second? Would that get them to #15,16, 17?
Saric's career WS number is 9.2. He came out in the same draft as Kyle (15.0), but waited a year overseas. He ain't that ing great.
Don't forget the Spurs could package the 2 picks and move up in the draft if they have their eye on someone. Saric hasn't really impressed me and it's not like he moves the needle defensively, which is where we need the most help. He might be traded twice in less than a year. That should tell you something.
NBA Real Plus Minus Wins
#73 Davis Bertans, 42nd pick
#82 Cory Joseph, 29th pick
#88 Derrick White, 29th pick
#128 Kyle Anderson, 30th pick
#138 Bryn Forbes, undrafted
#173 Aron Baynes, undrafted
#186 Boban Marjanovic, undrafted
#208 Ian Mahinmi, 28th pick
#222 Tony Parker, 28th pick
#223 Anthony Tolliver, undrafted
#255 Dario Saric, 12th pick
#288 Jaron Blossomgame, 59th pick
#364 Drew Eubanks, undrafted
#406 Chimezie Metu, 49th pick
#441 Taurean Prince, 12th (another thread's trade target)
#471 JaMychal Green, undrafted
Yeah, let's throw a first round pick at this uninspiring er....
Saric was #31 PF last year and RPM is fake news anyways.
lol no
So glad we did not get Saric and Fultz that would have been a nightmare
Guess RC is just really lucky then.
Nah. Using probability like that is dumb. Spurs fans should feel confidence that Buford can use that pick well one way or the other.How big a chance do you think we have of drafting a better player than Saric? Give a % number.
The point is that ST is pretty much split into two camps of folks talking about which of the 29th picks is going to be a star going forward, and a lot of those folks like both picks. Yet there's still way too many people who seem to think that 29th picks don't have value at the same time. It's so weird.
It definitely matters, which team makes those picks. For instance, no way Spurs pick Saric at where he was picked.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_NBA_draft
I could see it, actually. Saric was a really highly touted prospect. He only fell because of concerns about him staying overseas for three years so he wouldn't be bound to the rookie scale. He was great value where he was picked at the time, and even looking back, there aren't a lot of folks who were better. Jokic and Capela are the only ones clearly better, and Nurkic is about the same (Kyle too, but not touching that debate). Warren and Lavine both might have been better but have stagnated. A number of those first-rounders didn't even make it to the end of their rookie deals.
My bad, tbh, I didn't mean that "go well". I meant that I could consider potentially better than Saric (I say "potentially" because so far, they aren't).
Why is it dumb, because it doesn't fit your opinion?Nah. Using probability like that is dumb. Spurs fans should feel confidence that Buford can use that pick well one way or the other.
Here is a list of the last 10 first round draft picks for the Spurs:
George Hill
James Anderson
Corey joseph
Livio Jean-Charles
Kyle Anderson
Nikola Milutinov
Dejounte Murray
Derrick White
Lonnie Walker
Tiago Splitter
Most of them pretty damn solid, but none of them (with the exception of maybe White in the future) with the individual stats nor potential of Saric. If Dario were available for the following draft, and somehow made it all the way down to 28th, you bet your ass the Spurs would take him, tbh.
The dude is 24 with his hole career and development ahead of him. I see trading a 28th pick for him as virtually picking him on the draft, with the security of knowing that, at worst, you are getting a solid rotation player. I really don't see the downside, tbh.
I don't hate Saric. I think he was overrated last year, but he's better than he's showing right now too. That said, next year, I'd want a forward version of White or Murray locked into a four-year deal way more than an expiring Saric who's had an inconsistent career. Obviously there is downside, but RC's earned enough trust with me that I want to see him work a two-pick first-round for the first time in more than a decade.
I just think it's a pointless game. We will only have one sample to test from, so there's no way to come up with a real distribution. For example, the Spurs are either going to win the le this year or they won't. There are obvious reasons to believe it's unlikely, but when it comes down to it, if they somehow won the le, there was a 100-percent chance they were going to win. Any attempt to go from likeliness to actual numbers feels disingenuous.Why is it dumb, because it doesn't fit your opinion?
Certainly has a higher floor than most guys in the low 20s. Still think he's overrated if you just go by last year's numbers. If this year is closer to his floor, then there's a real downside to picking him up, especially if that comes with a long-term deal. The picks could be used for anything from dumping a contract to moving up in the draft to catch someone they REALLY like. Just because Saric might have a better expected value than the pick doesn't mean that making that deal is automatically the best deal. Vince Carter was worth George Hill in 2009, but the Spurs held off and got a much lesser player in Richard Jefferson. Value-wise it was a bad deal, but they ended up using Hill for the Leonard/Bertans deal. Who knows if the Spurs get that fifth ring had they made the first "good" move they could have made?The dude is 24 with his hole career and development ahead of him. I see trading a 28th pick for him as virtually picking him on the draft, with the security of knowing that, at worst, you are getting a solid rotation player. I really don't see the downside, tbh.
He looked overweight last night
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