If Nate Silver Gets A Second Election In A Row Horribly Wrong, Is He Officially A Hack?

[Spurtacular]

I’m Here To Remind You That Trump Can Still Win
A 10 percent chance isn’t zero. And there’s a chance of a recount, too.
By Nate Silver

It’s tempting to write this story in the form of narrative fiction: “On a frigid early December morning in Washington, the Supreme Court ruled 5-4 that disputed mail ballots in Pennsylvania—” You know, that kind of thing. But given the stakes in this election, I think it’s important to be prosaic and sober-minded instead.

Before we proceed further, a short philosophical note. I hate it when people use phrases — to be fair, we often use phrases like these ourselves! — such as “Nate Silver is giving Biden a 90 percent chance” or “FiveThirtyEight still gives Trump a 10 percent chance.” We aren’t giving anybody anything. Instead, as former FiveThirtyEight politics host Jody Avirgan puts it, what we’re doing is “mapping uncertainty.” In other words, if Biden leads by about 9 points in national polls, 8 points in Wisconsin, 5 points in Pennsylvania, 2 points in Florida, etc., how does that translate into a probability of victory? That’s what our model is trying to figure out.

And indeed — although nobody needs any reminders of this after 2016 — Trump can win. All the election models are bullish on Biden, but they are united in that a Trump win is still plausible despite his seemingly steep deficit in polls.

A huge part of why our model and others’ think Trump can still win is the Electoral College. Trump has only a 3 percent chance of winning the popular vote in our model. Other models put his chances at less than 1 percent. It’s very likely that Democrats will win the popular vote for the seventh time in the last eight elections.

Read more:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...can-still-win/

Is Nate Silver a hack if he has a major fail again?

[Reck]

I'm also not seeing how someone with a favorability rating of well over 55% loses to someone who is -13 in that department.

Even Trump suppoters dont think Biden is a POS like Trump.

[Spurtacular]

I'm also not seeing how someone with a favorability rating of well over 55% loses to someone who is -13 in that department.

Even Trump suppoters dont think Biden is a POS like Trump.

[ElNono]

Is Nate Silver a hack if he has a major fail again?

again?

[Spurtacular]

again?

Calling Hillary at 9/10 was a major fail.

[ElNono]

Calling Hillary at 9/10 was a major fail.

Except he didn't make any 'calls'... feels like deja vu, this discussion happened about 30 posts or so above

[Spurminator]

What kind of ty childhood did Derp have that gave him such an abuse fetish?

[Ef-man]

Except he didn't make any 'calls'... feels like deja vu, this discussion happened about 30 posts or so above

Copium withdrawal syndrome makes derp forget facts.

Hate to see it.

[Splits]

Except he didn't make any 'calls'... feels like deja vu, this discussion happened about 30 posts or so above

Copium is a uva drug

[ElNono]

Copium withdrawal syndrome makes derp forget facts.

Hate to see it.

I just honestly think he really believes everybody else is like him. In other words, he would never ever vote for a democrat candidate because he absolutely hates them, and he somehow projects that into other people.

Thus, under his thinking, everybody else has their mind set on who they're going to vote months or years in advance, and so any polling that shows undecideds or shifting support is 'fake' or the like.

Which obviously couldn't be further from reality, as seen in pretty much every election.

[Spurtacular]

Always? What about this year?



Do you know how to read a graph?

So, it was 9/10 for Hillary and now Biden 9/10 chance.

You agree that Nate's a hack if Joe doesn't win?

Copium is a uva drug

Voting present like a .

K

[Spurtacular]

Except he didn't make any 'calls'... feels like deja vu, this discussion happened about 30 posts or so above

It's not a call; it's odds.

So weak.

[ElNono]

It's not a call; it's odds.

So weak.

You sound frustrated. Take a deep breath, it's just politics.

[Spurtacular]

I just honestly think he really believes everybody else is like him. In other words, he would never ever vote for a democrat candidate because he absolutely hates them, and he somehow projects that into other people.

Thus, under his thinking, everybody else has their mind set on who they're going to vote months or years in advance, and so any polling that shows undecideds or shifting support is 'fake' or the like.

Which obviously couldn't be further from reality, as seen in pretty much every election.

I just honestly think you make such godawful analysis to cope.

[ElNono]

I just honestly think you make such godawful analysis to cope.

That's your counterargument? more projection? thanks

[RD2191]

Why is anyone even engaging with this re ? It's obvious he's just trolling at this point. Put his pathetic ass on ignore and move on.

[Splits]

Voting present like a .

K

Something tells me you don't know how the world works. You can't even ask the right question after I utterly embarrassed you.

[Splits]

Why is anyone even engaging with this re ? It's obvious he's just trolling at this point. Put his pathetic ass on ignore and move on.

good advice

[Ef-man]

I just honestly think he really believes everybody else is like him. In other words, he would never ever vote for a democrat candidate because he absolutely hates them, and he somehow projects that into other people.

Thus, under his thinking, everybody else has their mind set on who they're going to vote months or years in advance, and so any polling that shows undecideds or shifting support is 'fake' or the like.

Which obviously couldn't be further from reality, as seen in pretty much every election.

So derp is that ed up! Wow.

[ElNono]

So derp is that ed up! Wow.

It's not as uncommon as you think, tbh

[Spurtacular]

Something tells me you don't know how the world works. You can't even ask the right question after I utterly embarrassed you.

Don't try to talk big, bunker .

[Spurtacular]

Why is anyone even engaging with this re ? It's obvious he's just trolling at this point. Put his pathetic ass on ignore and move on.

Is that what you do, little ?

[Spurtacular]

That's your counterargument? more projection? thanks

Your argument was loaded with projection, moron.

[Trainwreck2100]

The rights hated of nate silver is funny because in 2016 he was one of the only pollsters to not give the election to Hillary even in the days before the election despite the number when everyone was calling it, he didn't say Trump was out of it

[ElNono]

Your argument was loaded with projection, moron.

How so? It's well known I didn't vote for Shillary, and I didn't plan to vote for Biden either, as I despise him as a candidate.