Bold prediction: Barring injury, the Spurs can win 40 games this coming season

[Dejounte]

I think 35 wins are pretty achievable, with 40+ being possible if they're aggressive in adding a couple good vets but I wouldn't rush it: one more season of development and taking advantage of opportunities should be the goal, not pivoting as fast as possible.

The biggest teacher is the play-in/playoffs, so I think they should aim for that.

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

I'm going to predict 42 wins. The league is so weak and evenly matched now that the Spurs should be able to hover around .500.

[spurraider21]

wemby couldnt even make a jumper in an empty gym, hows he gonna put up points against nba defenses?

[timvp]

I think Spurs fans are underestimating how hard it is for teenagers to impact winning. You can't compare to Duncan and Robinson.

LeBron was in a terrible Eastern Conference (four teams over .500), had more experienced (and probably better, if we want to be honest) teammates, already had mostly grown into his body and he still just won 35 games as a rookie.

[SpursFan86]

I think Spurs fans are underestimating how hard it is for teenagers to impact winning. You can't compare to Duncan and Robinson.

LeBron was in a terrible Eastern Conference (four teams over .500), had more experienced (and probably better, if we want to be honest) teammates, already had mostly grown into his body and he still just won 35 games as a rookie.

Well here’s the question: how many games do you think the Spurs win last year if they’re healthy and fully motivated to win? IMO we win something like 30ish games. Now that group is all a year older and more experienced, so let’s say this year without Victor they’d be able to win 35ish games (again, assuming a healthy squad).

I don’t think winning 40 games is a lock, but it really doesn’t seem as crazy as it might sound at first thought. Definitely think Victor will struggle more than people here likely assume, but at the least I think he’ll be a noticeable positive on the defensive end and will demand attention on the offensive side which will make things easier for guys like Keldon and Vassell.

Mentioned it earlier in this thread but Vegas has the Spurs to win 40+ games at +650. That implies a ~13% chance which just seems crazy low to me. Especially when you consider we have a good amount of cap space to use just to hit the floor, so bringing in a decent vet or two seems likely.

[JPB]

Depends what we do in free agency. Pick up a vet and a rotational player, and we are set for a .500 season.

This.

Ask me the queqtion when the season starts.

[bluebellmaniac]

I think SilverHeart80 nailed it when he mentioned that Pop is gonna try all sorts of crazy lineups to see what the potential really is of each player and as a team. Otherwise almost 50 would be in reach. I'll say 45.

[TD 21]

Well here’s the question: how many games do you think the Spurs win last year if they’re healthy and fully motivated to win? IMO we win something like 30ish games. Now that group is all a year older and more experienced, so let’s say this year without Victor they’d be able to win 35ish games (again, assuming a healthy squad).

I don’t think winning 40 games is a lock, but it really doesn’t seem as crazy as it might sound at first thought. Definitely think Victor will struggle more than people here likely assume, but at the least I think he’ll be a noticeable positive on the defensive end and will demand attention on the offensive side which will make things easier for guys like Keldon and Vassell.

Mentioned it earlier in this thread but Vegas has the Spurs to win 40+ games at +650. That implies a ~13% chance which just seems crazy low to me. Especially when you consider we have a good amount of cap space to use just to hit the floor, so bringing in a decent vet or two seems likely.

As if the Spurs were the only team to do what they did, however you want to label it.

Unless they make a marked upgrade at PG (which I don't see), while improved in a general sense, I don't expect the standings to be all that indicative of it.

[Seventyniner]

Mentioned it earlier in this thread but Vegas has the Spurs to win 40+ games at +650. That implies a ~13% chance which just seems crazy low to me. Especially when you consider we have a good amount of cap space to use just to hit the floor, so bringing in a decent vet or two seems likely.

I agree on both fronts. It's hard to project even the final state of the roster at this point due to the salary floor and Wemby (most likely, from what we have heard) wanting to win immediately.

[Ariel]

The biggest teacher is the play-in/playoffs, so I think they should aim for that.

Well, Utah, Dallas, Atlanta, all those teams made the playoffs multiple times and were supposed "to learn", and they eventually regressed badly. My point is, making it to the playoffs is important as long as you're not doing it at the expense of the future. The Spurs could EASILY make a few win now trades and get to the playoffs as soon as next season, but if the ultimate goal is long term success (like Brian Wright said multiple times) then they should be very careful not to shoot themselves in the foot going for a quick fix that limits future flexibility.
With that in mind, I'd be cautious before handing out big, long term bucks to past their prime free agents or spending a bunch of future assets in a trade for a fringe star. Sometimes the perfect opportunity comes, say something along the lines of what Denver did with Aaron Gordon or Boston with Derrick White, landing a perfect fit for a reasonable price from a team that's going a different direction. The opportunity eventually comes, you just have to stay ready and flexible to take advantage when it knocks at your door. If you're too anxious, you won't have the assets or cap space when it comes.
Bare in mind I'm not advocating for another tank, but something more along the lines of bringing in a couple stop gap vets to help the young guys while still playing them. The big difference being, we should actually TRY TO WIN, as opposed to last year Pop was purposefully letting things slide he normally wouldn't. Just by doing that I think we're at 35 wins, and if we make the playoffs then great, but if we don't I don't think it's a huge deal at this stage (this year).

[rascal]

Well here’s the question: how many games do you think the Spurs win last year if they’re healthy and fully motivated to win? IMO we win something like 30ish games. Now that group is all a year older and more experienced, so let’s say this year without Victor they’d be able to win 35ish games (again, assuming a healthy squad).

I don’t think winning 40 games is a lock, but it really doesn’t seem as crazy as it might sound at first thought. Definitely think Victor will struggle more than people here likely assume, but at the least I think he’ll be a noticeable positive on the defensive end and will demand attention on the offensive side which will make things easier for guys like Keldon and Vassell.

Mentioned it earlier in this thread but Vegas has the Spurs to win 40+ games at +650. That implies a ~13% chance which just seems crazy low to me. Especially when you consider we have a good amount of cap space to use just to hit the floor, so bringing in a decent vet or two seems likely.

If the Spurs bring in a good vet the odds will change. The current odds is for the current team as is.

[Old School 44]

The Spurs do big things when adding a generational big. Turnarounds of +35 with Robinson, +36 with Duncan, a +30 with Wembanyama in a weak West should be easy.

[ambchang]

The spurs were -9.82 last year. A team that was 40-42 like OKC was 0.96, that’s a turnaround of 10.78 ppg. Only one single player had a BPM of over 10 last year and it was jokic at 13. Wemby is great but to expect him to turn this thing around with the way the team is constructed right now, even with improvements from all the other players and factoring last years tank, that is an incredible turnaround.

[Uriel]

The spurs were -9.82 last year. A team that was 40-42 like OKC was 0.96, that’s a turnaround of 10.78 ppg. Only one single player had a BPM of over 10 last year and it was jokic at 13. Wemby is great but to expect him to turn this thing around with the way the team is constructed right now, even with improvements from all the other players and factoring last years tank, that is an incredible turnaround.

You have to take that -9.82 number into context. It was exacerbated by the team purposefully losing games or simply giving up after a few quarters when the outcome was no longer in doubt. Also, the +0.96 from OKC is an outlier; the expected record of a team with that kind of point differential is 43.5 wins.

Nobody expects Wembanyama alone to increase the win total by 18. That expectation comes from Wembanyama, plus the fact the team is no longer tanking, plus internal improvement, plus the possible addition of free agents that could help the team become more compe ive.