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lol
Good sign I think for the 2028 electoral college
lol
don't forget, August is statistically historically the worst month polling-wise, by far, for Republicans..... I'll never forget August 2016 in-person when Hillary was pretty consistently beating Trump in Georgia (HRC +4) and even in Texas (statistical tie) in polls, plus leading WI/MI/OH/PA by double digits... also polls have been absolute garbage this entire midterm primary cycle.
summer polls consistently over-sample college students and career academics who are the bluest and most progressivist of respondents who have a poor turnout tendency in the fall.
don't hold your breath. Hobbs may win, but if she does it'll be ~1-3% tops. AZ was a big polling miss to the left in 2024, both Kamala and Gallego underperformed polling averages there by about 6%.
August polls.
August polls.
Indeed it is. Keynesian economic policy is inherently Communist-lite.
Last edited by Millennial_Messiah; 08-24-2026 at 09:52 PM.
Not only have you never been great at political predictions here, M_M, your record is absolutely dismal
Not sure I can recall a poster who got it wrong more consistently -- you have a pronounced weakness for wishcasting
True that August polls aren't worth much, though
Trump trying to figure out how to pocket that cash
He's going to spend the money on ads for...
...himself.
lol
I'd take out a home equity loan to bet on Paxton at this point. It's the week before Labor Day and it's probably your last chance to bet against Talarico before the polls turn sharply against him and the rest of the Democrats in contested Senate seats.
still think Cooper and Ossoff win straight up but it will be way narrower than the current pre-fall polls show, i'd put strong wagers on Cooper/Ossoff to NOT "cover the spread" (i think it's -8.5 for Cooper and -9.5 for Ossoff currently) per se
But you won't
Show your actual bets.
https://lacc.fiu.edu/lpof_-national_-survey_-final.pdfTrump net Hispanic approval in selected states:
FL: -9.9
NM: -20.8
CA: -45.9
TX: -46.2 (!!!)
AZ: -55.3
outlier poll, but may be concerning for some
TPPF is a conservative policy shop
https://www.texaspolicy.com/press/tp...rom-texas-poll
Last edited by Winehole23; 09-03-2026 at 12:22 PM.
same poll
RCP
Beto never got closer than 5 points
Bluemageddon type numbers
https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.ne...rt_SlcWdVd.pdf
Right now I currently just have bets on Ricketts beating Osborn in Nebraska. A bit of a safe one I get it, but I got it for an under 70 cent moneyline and now it's like 73-74 cents and will only go up. People forget that not only the Omaha district gets to vote in Nebraska. It's still a deep red state. The western two-thirds of the state have, like, no democrats.
<br><br>lots of undecideds and that was Cornyn not Paxton. I get it, Cornyn is more moderate, but he's also not going to turn out the base if he had won the primary, and he hasn't won in a midterm year since 2014, a full year before Trump got into politics. Midterm years are all about turnout dynamics because turnout is a given in presidential election years like 2020 and 2024. A moderate like Cornyn might actually underperform Paxton in a situation where Trump won Texas by 14% under two years ago. We'll see, but either way Talafreako is going to lose.
Show me your actual bets.
I just bet about $27k to win about $40k tonight on Oklahoma beating Michigan tomorrow. I can't believe the moneyline is 64/36 lmao.
Is there a Kalshi on what else MM will claim he bet on other than the original thing he said everyone should bet the farm on?
Show us your actual bets.
Trafalgar Group is center right biased
They lost, but then I bet on AZ to beat the Chargers because the Chargers always have some kind of a stinker game early in the season and it was a huge value money line bet and I won that back + 3,300.
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