I'm calling it now...

[JamStone]

Horrible example. You're comparing events with clear correlation to correctable behavior versus events which have a close to random distribution.

Which events have clear correlation to correctable behavior and which have a close to random distribution?

Each set of events are random: car accidents and freak injuries

Each set of events have clear correlation to correctable behavoir: driving more safely and conditioning better


Even if a driver is safer and more aware when he/she drives, a freak accident can still happen. Even if a player does everything in his power to prevent an injury, a freak injury can still happen.


Why is it a horrible example? It seems to apply just fine.

[anthologyct]

Detroit won't come out of the East, it will be Miami.

Honestly, I've been thinking about it, and I think they can. I believe someone is going to get injured on Detroit's roster and they're going to suffer. Delfino won't be with them either apparently, so that takes away. Limited bench and what not, the Heat with a vastly improved Shaq can beat them. And Wade is just unstoppable.

Thoughts?

My thoughts, you ask?

I mentioned this earlier: Against +.500 teams, Miami's record is 15-18. That's a damning stat. How in can you beat the team with the best home record, and best road record in the league in a 7-Game series, when you can't even win half the games against winning teams? Let alone win a Championship! And you already know what their record is against "so-called" elite teams. Please!

Even if Detroit suffers an injury to a starter, I'm confident we'd still send them packing.

The Suns and Mavericks have a better chance of beating the Spurs than do the Heat have of beating the Pistons. Don't believe Riley, Shaq, and all that overblown pre-season hype comin' outta South Beach!

............................

And as far as Delfino not being there? ........... First off, he'll be there. To leave would be nullify his contract, resulting in a suspension from the League. But who cares anyways? The guy's givin' us 3.2ppg, and he "used to get", [past tense], most of that in GARBAGE TIME. Now, he's not even playing. Once Delk came over at the trading deadline, he took his rightful place at the end of the bench beside Jason Maxiel, Amir Johnson and Alex Acker. Yeah, haven't heard of those guys either, have you? Delfino is a non-factor! He's about as much of a factor on the Detroit bench as is Melvin Sanders on the Spurs bench.

[Vinnie_Johnson]

Detroit won't come out of the East, it will be Miami.

Honestly, I've been thinking about it, and I think they can. I believe someone is going to get injured on Detroit's roster and they're going to suffer. Delfino won't be with them either apparently, so that takes away. Limited bench and what not, the Heat with a vastly improved Shaq can beat them. And Wade is just unstoppable.

Thoughts?

That's as dumb as saying Dallas is going to knock off the spurs think before you post.

[ShoogarBear]

It's bad on so many different levels it's hard to know where to start.

First off, it is an anomaly for five starters to go through a single year without injury. It is not an anomaly for somebody to go for X amount of time, where X can be just about any number you pick, without an accident or ticket. So just on simple probabilities the distributions of the two examples don't compare.

Second, while I don't have access to primary literature, I feel pretty confident that a guy with a bunch of tickets and a bunch of prior accidents is a phenomenally larger risk to have another accident than someone with a clean record. I'm sure any insurance company would agree with me.
Even if I go along with the silly comparison it implies that the current Pistons have always been injury free (the clean driving record), while the other teams are loaded up with players who have known injury track records.

[Vinnie_Johnson]

Why won't Delfino be available?

Just curious.

GOING NOWHERE: According to a report on the International Basketball Federation Web site, Pistons swingman Carlos Delfino told Ole newspapers he would like to play for his native Argentina in this summer's South American Championships.

Delfino will likely represent his country in July, but he will not miss the Pistons' playoff run to join the Argentinean team early to train, as the report speculated.

[Leetonidas]

That's as dumb as saying Dallas is going to knock off the spurs think before you post.

This is the NBA, and as Sean Elliot has said before, anyone can beat anyone.

Before anymore insults get hurled at me, I do believe Detroit is better and likely will be in the Finals, something just tells me it's not going to go the way it's expected...I mean c'mon, no one has even seriously considered anyone but Detroit coming out of the East. It's odd.

[Vinnie_Johnson]

This is the NBA, and as Sean Elliot has said before, anyone can beat anyone.

Before anymore insults get hurled at me, I do believe Detroit is better and likely will be in the Finals, something just tells me it's not going to go the way it's expected...I mean c'mon, no one has even seriously considered anyone but Detroit coming out of the East. It's odd.

Well I can't change the way you feel but you are right anyone can beat anyone but in a seven game series the best team comes out on top most times. Sorry I didn't mean to insult you but I thought the way The Heat are playing they have little chace of getting by Detroit.

[theMUHMEshow]

Miami has NO SHOT...NJ has a better shot at knocking off my Pistons...

[Vinnie_Johnson]

Miami has NO SHOT...NJ has a better shot at knocking off my Pistons...

Bill D is that you ???

[SenorSpur]

Shaq sniffed his last career NBA finals appearance in 2004

[exstatic]

If they can turn GR around, imagine what they can do for Walker.

Uh, that was for like two months, and you'll notice that they DIDN'T invite him back.

[whitelyt]

The 2000-2002 Lakers had a third scorer?

Uh... Remember that guy named Robert Horry??? Yeah, that guy with tons of playoff experience? The same guy that won Game 5 of the Finals for, who was it - oh yeah, the Spurs.

Also Rick Fox and Derek Fisher did the intangibles. Oh yeah, Ron Harper was on one of those squads as well. Plenty of playoff experience outside of Shaq and Kobe.

[exstatic]

Miami has NO SHOT...NJ has a better shot at knocking off my Pistons...

NJ is definitely the threat to Detroit. Too bad they're not the #4.

[exstatic]

Uh... Remember that guy named Robert Horry??? Yeah, that guy with tons of playoff experience? The same guy that won Game 5 of the Finals for, who was it - oh yeah, the Spurs.

Also Rick Fox and Derek Fisher did the intangibles. Oh yeah, Ron Harper was on one of those squads as well. Plenty of playoff experience outside of Shaq and Kobe.

Nobody denies that BSB is clutch, but a third scorer needs to at least put up double digits. Horry's career average is 7.4, and he only scored double digits 3 times, all with Houston, with a whopping high of 12 ppg one year. He's a role player, probably the ultimate role player, but a role player nonetheless. Fisher is cut from the same cloth. Fox is a scrub that you never heard about until he landed in LA LA land. Harper was old by the time he landed with the Lakers.

Those Laker 3-peat squads did it with no third scorer.

[Trainwreck2100]

Yeah, but I'd still give my right nut and Brent Barry for Walker.

Dan in my limited tenure here I've seen you say some really stupid , and I mean REALLY REALLY REALLY bad, but this far surpasses all of that.

[whitelyt]

Nobody denies that BSB is clutch, but a third scorer needs to at least put up double digits. Horry's career average is 7.4, and he only scored double digits 3 times, all with Houston, with a whopping high of 12 ppg one year. He's a role player, probably the ultimate role player, but a role player nonetheless. Fisher is cut from the same cloth. Fox is a scrub that you never heard about until he landed in LA LA land. Harper was old by the time he landed with the Lakers.

Those Laker 3-peat squads did it with no third scorer.

Horry has scored double-digits in games played while in the playoffs for the Lakers. Did he average double digits, no. But he was able to put the ball in the basket when shots were needed. Same with Derek Fisher. They had guys who could spread the floor when Shaq or Kobe was getting double teamed. I have to also throw in Glen

Compare that to today's Heat squad. They don't have consistent scorers that can put the ball in the basket. You don't necessarily have to be a consistent double-digit scorer. As long as you are a consistent scoring threat that forces the defense to play you honest allowing the two main scorers to operate more.

That is what I meant by referring to Horry and Fisher. Actually Devin George was not very bad at putting the ball in the basket. Today's Heat just don't have consistent players that will force defenses to play honest. An added advantage to Detroit is they are one of the few teams that will not double on Shaq.

The Heat of last year was very different. Damon Jones and Eddie Jones was consistent in the playoffs and they burned defenses everytime they doubled on Shaq or Wade. Also Rasual Butler and Keyon Dooling was starting to develop at the right time. Lest we forget they also had a healthy Mourning. So they had a lot of weapons. This years team don't have that.

[SenorSpur]

Miami has proven all season that they cannot play with any of the big boys. They'll suc b to either Detriot or New Jersey, whomever they meet first.

The Nets recent run has been very impressive. They can get out in the open court and run on the rest of the league. However, they will most certainly wilt under the defensive pressure of the Pistons in a seven-game, half-court series.

Detroit wins the East. Book it! Bet the farm and your life on it!

[zeleni]

Vince Carter is spinning the Sun on his finger for 5 minutes. I have it on tape.

[DisgruntledLionFan#54,927]

VC is only averaging 39 against the Heat this year...

[Darrin]

Detroit won't come out of the East, it will be Miami.

Honestly, I've been thinking about it, and I think they can. I believe someone is going to get injured on Detroit's roster and they're going to suffer. Delfino won't be with them either apparently, so that takes away. Limited bench and what not, the Heat with a vastly improved Shaq can beat them. And Wade is just unstoppable.

Thoughts?

It's true; Miami is the closest team to the Detroit Pistons in the East. Shaquille O'Neal and Dwyane Wade are rare talents, and their coach is no scrub. But I am fully confident the Pistons can beat the Heat. Here are a few of the reasons why:

*Pat Riley's recent playoff results:
2001: 3-0 sweep by the Charlotte Hornets
2000: 3-0 win over Pistons, 3-4 loss to the New York Knicks.
1999: 3-2 loss to the New York Knicks.
1998: 3-2 loss to the New York Knicks.

Despite having homecourt advantage in every series that I just mentioned, Riles coached the Heat to 3 opening-round exits in 4 seasons. That's not to say the same thing is going to happen, but it's a long way from beating a two-time Conference Champion with the best record in the league in a series the Heat don't have homecourt advantage. He hasn't coached in the Conference Finals since 1997, coached in the Finals since 1994, and has not won the NBA Finals since 1988.

This would be like the 1988-89 Cleveland Cavaliers claiming that Lenny Wilkens can make the difference because he coached the 1978-79 Seattle SuperSonics to an NBA Championship.

* Injuries: The Miami Heat are not a young team, and that's why injuries are a major concern:

Jason Williams - 21 games (currently injured with knee tendonitis)
Shaquille O'Neal - 21 games
James Posey - 14 games (currently injured with ankle tendonitis)
Alonzo Mourning - 13 games (currently injured with a calf tear)

That's 69 games for four of their top eight players. That isn't a direct concern. But all of those guys are going to be back for the postseason, and will have a tougher road to the Conference Finals than last season. Last year, Shaq was able to rest in the second round because they had a Washington team that A.) th Wizards had no interior presence, B.) the Heat had a healthy Alonzo Mourning, C.) Washington was a team elated to be in the second round because they hadn't won a playoff series since the Reagan administration and D.) Washington played little defense even when they were trying.

Try resting Shaq versus the New Jersey Nets (Nenad Kristic, Jason Collins, Cliff Robinson) or the Indiana Pacers (Jermaine O'Neal, Jeff Foster, Scot Pollard), especially with all their perimeter talents in (Pacers: Peja, Stephen Jackson, and Jamaal Tinsley. Nets: Vince Carter, Jason Kidd, and Richard Jefferson). Between those two teams they have 3 appearances in the Conference Finals, two appearances in the NBA Finals.

* History of success:

The Pistons beat the Heat in last year's Conference Finals - a game seven on the road. That's a rare feat - something like 1 chance in 5 of winning that game as the road team. The Pistons have won 3 games of 4 from the Heat this season, and in the only loss, the Pistons had an opportunity to win - an open 3-pointer from Tayshaun Prince. This was after Wade went off for 17 straight Heat points in the fourth quarter.

But that's not where this ends:

- The last time the Pistons faced Gary Payton in the playoffs, Billups out-scored him 105-21 on his way to the Finals MVP.

- They are 12-7 against the Heat since Dwyane Wade joined the team.

- The Pistons are 2-1 in playoff series versus Shaquille O'Neal, 8-4 (.667) in the last two postseasons. O'Neal hasn't beat the Pistons in the playoffs since 1996 (3-0 sweep with Magic in Pistons first playoff series in four years).

- Jason Williams and James Posey have never played outside the second round of the playoffs, and have never won a playoff game in their time in Memphis. If it comes down to them playing the role of Steve Kerr or Robert Horry, will they be able to perform?

The only player who can claim to have success against the Pistons is Antoine Walker, who averaged 19.4 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 2.2 assists in a 4-1 series win with the 2001-02 Boston Celtics. The Celtics were involved in one of the three series (of 30) in the history of the Palace where the Pistons surrendered 2 home games (2002-03 Nets, 2001-02 Celtics, and 1990-91 Bulls). Still, only Ben Wallace remains from that team.

* Benches:

Although the Pistons got off to somewhat of a slow start, the bench has come along nicely. Tony Delk has become the Pistons leading scorer off the bench. His scoring at the point guard position has freed space for Antonio McDyess in the pick-and-roll.

Last 5 games:

The Scorers:
Antonio McDyess (6): 11.2 ppg, 8.0 rpg, and 1.8 apg in 26.2 mpg.
Tony Delk (7): 13.6 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 1.6 apg, and 1.6 steals in 21.5 mpg.
The Defenders:
Lindsey Hunter (8): 3.2 ppg, 3.0 apg, and 1.2 rpg in 15.4 mpg.
Dale Davis (9): 2.5 ppg and 3.3 rpg in 11.3 mpg.
The X-Man:
Maurice Evans (10): 4.4 ppg and 1.4 rpg in 11.5 mpg.

This doesn't include Kelvin Cato, Jason Maxiell (the guy who went in for Big Ben as he sat on the bench in Orlando), Carlos Delfino, and the two guys who have been tearing it up for the Fayetteville Patriots, Alex Acker (18.0 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 4.9 apg, 1.88 spg in 16 games) and Amir Johnson (16.9 ppg, 7.3 rpg, and 1.50 bpg in 18 games). The Patriots went 10-8 in their stay, a team that was 6-24 before their arrival. Those are the 14th and 15th men on the roster; don't think I'm touting those accomplishments as anything above those roles.

Anyway, I have droned on enough. The fact of the matter is that Miami would be an upset. It van be done, I'm not disrespecting the Heat and I can appreciate an underdog. But I like the Pistons' chances.

[bdubya]

The more I contemplate the Heat and the Nets, the I'm convinced the biggest threat to us in the East is Chicago. They've got a balanced attack, and they've got more fight in them than the Nets and Heat put together. Lucky for us they're relatively short on talent.

Quit laughing; I'm halfway serious about this.

[Darrin]

The more I contemplate the Heat and the Nets, the I'm convinced the biggest threat to us in the East is Chicago. They've got a balanced attack, and they've got more fight in them than the Nets and Heat put together. Lucky for us they're relatively short on talent.

Quit laughing; I'm halfway serious about this.

If they can keep their mental toughness as the talent level rises, they will be a force.


But not this year. I give them a 4-1 series loss to the Pistons.

[Leetonidas]

Just wanted to bump this in hopes of jinxing the Heat. Let's go Pistons.

[MadDog73]

That's as dumb as saying Dallas is going to knock off the spurs think before you post.

Son of a....

[Leetonidas]

If they can keep their mental toughness as the talent level rises, they will be a force.


But not this year. I give them a 4-1 series loss to the Pistons.

How ironic eh? You predict a 4-1 loss while Miami is up 3-1.

I really wish Detroit could win. I don't want to see Dirk, Cuban, Shaq, or Payton and Walker with rings.