Spurs vs. Mavs: The Chess Match

[Cant_Be_Faded]

I just finished re-watching the first two games against the Mavericks and I must say that the chess match going on between Pop and AJ is quite interesting. The adjustments have been genius on both sides. Not since the Pop versus Phil Jackson battles have we witnessed such a well coached series after two games.

The first adjustment made was by Pop and it was before the series even started. Ever since 2000 when Dirk started to establish himself in the league, the Spurs have always switched on pick-and-rolls against the Mavs. Always. That is why you’d often see AJ matched up against Dirk, or in recent years Parker guarding Dirk.

In Game 1, Pop changed it up and that chess move devastated the Mavs’ game plan. Instead of switching on the pick-and-rolls, the Spurs utilized the defensive system that they employ against the Utah Jazz. Basically what the Spurs are doing is they are sending over a bigman to help on pick-and-rolls and the two players involved are not switching at all. What this does is it forces the point guard to drive into the lane with the bigman waiting there while the player who set the screen stays guarded throughout the play.

Why Pop did this was to make sure that Dirk didn’t get open or even get switched off onto a smaller player. Bowen would ignore the pick-and-roll and wouldn’t help at all. Instead, he’d just follow Dirk as he faded to the corner. The Spur who was guarding the player going around the screen was supposed to fight around the screen with little to no help.

That drastic change in strategy nullified the Mavs game plan in Game 1. You could see that they came into the game with the idea of isolating Dirk against the smaller defender after the pick-and-rolls. The Mavs had a series of plays developed to take advantage of that. When the Spurs changed up the strategy that they’ve used for half a decade, it caught the Mavs totally off guard.

That change in the way the Spurs guarded the pick-and-rolls was a genius adjustment and pretty much won Game 1 for the Spurs. AJ and the Mavs weren’t expecting it at all and couldn’t adjust mid-flight.

In Game 2, the Mavs were ready and they just trashed that defense. What they did, which was very, very smart, was they just stopped running any of the plays they usually run for Dirk. Instead, they concentrated on other mismatches. With Bowen on Dirk, the Mavs knew that a bigman was going to be on Josh Howard. The Mavs ran isolations and pick-and-rolls using Howard and the Spurs couldn’t stop it. Howard was just too fast for either Horry or Duncan.

The Mavs also found the weakness in the Spurs’ pick-and-roll defense -- and that was covering the point guard. What they would do is they’d space the opposite bigman and make him travel a long distance to come and help. By the time the help got there on the pick-and-rolls, the point guard was already in the paint. By then, the guard either had a layup or had an easy kick to spot-up shooter. Using Dirk as a decoy, the Mavs just attacked the Spurs right down the middle.

When the Mavs did use Dirk, they’d use him coming off of screens. Knowing that Bowen can get around any screen, the Mavs instead used twin screeners to make it impossible for Bowen to get around. They’d slow down Bowen with a guard and then the center would be there to wipe him out. And since the Spurs were told not to switch at all, Dirk would be wide open.

That game plan in Game 2 by the Mavs was gold. The Spurs couldn’t handle any of that defensively with the way they were guarding Dallas. Even if the Spurs played perfect defense (which they were far from doing), AJ had the Mavs running perfect plays to counteract it. There was no way the Spurs were winning that game.

Now heading into Game 3, the ball is in Pop’s court to adjust. The Spurs can’t use the same game plan and expect to win. Howard would continue to go off and the point guards for the Mavs would keep streaking down the lane.

What to do?

1. Switch Bowen onto Howard.
Pros: Bowen could most likely do a very good job of controlling Howard. There’s a reason why the Mavs are undefeated when Howard scores at least 20 points. If you put Bowen onto him, the Spurs could play more standard defense and would have far fewer mismatches.
Cons: Dirk could explode. You’d have to guard Dirk with either Horry or Duncan and that could get ugly. Dirk is explosive and is having his the best year of his career. You’d have to pencil in Dirk for 40 if the Spurs switch Bowen off of him.

2. Play Small Ball
Pros: I hated small ball against the Kings, but against the Mavs it actually makes some sense. I don’t love it but it could be needed to try to stop Dallas. If you keep Bowen on Dirk, going small and putting Finley or Barry on Howard could be the answer. To be sure that Howard doesn’t go off, you might have to actually start the small ball lineup.Cons: Small ball isn’t Spurs Basketball. Rebounding and blocked shots would suffer. Tim Duncan would be more likely to get into foul trouble.

3. Switch on pick-and-rolls
Pros: The Spurs know how to do this. They switched on pick-and-rolls against the Mavericks from 2000 until Game 1. In that time span, it always worked well for the Spurs. It would force Dirk to try to post-up smaller defenders and that’s something he hasn’t been great at in his career.
Cons: This could also get Dirk going. He’d spend a lot of time with players like Tony and Manu on him and he can shoot right over them. It’d also force the bigs to try to handle the point guards, which is harder since the Mavs aren’t Nash driven anymore. Since Nash wasn’t overly fast and he hurts you more passing, turning him into a scorer made sense. Now that Nash is gone, it’s more difficult to justify this scheme.

4. Make them shoot
Pros: This version of the Mavs isn’t nearly as deadly from the outside as past versions. They have some good shooters but they aren’t loaded with great shooters like they used to be. The Spurs could theoretically play the same style of defense but just back off the shooters. Make players like Josh Howard and Devin Harris beat you with their shooting ability. By sagging in the lane, the Spurs could turn the Mavs into a jump shooting team.
Cons: This one is obvious. If the Mavs hit those shots, the Spurs would be in trouble. Howard is a much improved shooter and a player like Jason Terry could become deadly from the perimeter. With the Mavs being at home, this is risky because a few shots could get the arena rocking.

Those are the four options that Pop has right now. I’m sure AJ is preparing for each of them. Honestly, I don’t know which one I prefer. Luckily they are all doable and each plan would force the Mavs to change what beat the Spurs in Game 2.

If it were up to me, I’d use option number three and make Dirk beat the Spurs while being guarded by a smaller player. He hasn’t consistently burned the Spurs yet and I’d be willing to play with that fire.

Offensively, the Spurs are fine. Tim Duncan is playing great. For the Spurs to have even more success, Tony and Manu are going to have to step up. The way AJ has the Mavs defending the three-point line, you can forget about beating them from long range. The Mavs are conceding the middle of the lane and are trying to force Tony and Manu to finish at the rim over Diop/Dampier/Mbenga. It’s a good strategy when the backcourt isn’t playing at 100%, but if Tony or Manu get on a roll, they could easily drop 30.

What I also found interesting is that AJ used Phil Jackson-like double-teams on Duncan in the first two games. He was playing him straight up early on and then sending doubles from odd angles as the game progressed. Duncan used to have trouble against that strategy but he’s handled it exceptionally well in the first two games. He’s seeing where the doubles are coming from and not having any trouble.

It still does worry me that the strategy could work and lead to a fourth quarter collapse offensively for the Spurs. I’ve seen it work when the Lakers ran it for years and there’s always a chance it could work again. AJ will let Duncan get going early and then hope that when the fourth quarter hits, Duncan gets tentative when the double-teams are coming hard and doesn’t know where to pass it and then the shooters aren’t in their normal positions and start missing.

(Oh and F AJ for using Lakers style defense against the Spurs when he was part of the meltdowns against the same exact style defense )

Spurs fans better buckle up and be prepared for a long series. These Mavs are not going to roll over and die. They are too well coached and their coaches know too much about the Spurs’ weaknesses. Plus, players like Dirk Nowitzki and Josh Howard are no pushovers. These Mavs can play and it’s possible that they beat the Spurs.

Possible. But it ain’t happenin’.

Time for the Spurs and Spurs fans to sack up. The Spurs are taking on their protégé. It’s not going to be easy.

F AJ. F _allas. F Cuban. F Mav Fans.

Believe.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

Im Glad We Picked Our Second Best Option I Dunno About You Guys

[Solid D]

The Spurs made some very nice adjustments, figured some things out, and were in a position to win. The Spurs got a stop with 8 seconds left on Stack's shot over Manu but the Spurs didn't hustle to the ball. Bowen didn't box out Dirk and then the Spurs were called for a foul..to boot. The Spurs missed some big FTs including the late one by Manu, his only miss at the line all night, and that proved to be the difference. This could have been the Spurs win but it just didn't work out.

The Spurs playing small ball won three of the 4 quarters and they finally realized that Oberto is a decent option.

[Solid D]

The first team to four.