U.S.To Go Stag Against Iran

[Nbadan]

Atlantic Monthly did a war-games study recently that determined the likelihood of success of airstrikes against Iran to neutralize their nuclear capacity. The study showed that Iran has been preparing for U.S./Israeli strikes for at least a decade. Airstrikes alone won't take out Iran's nukes. They have heavy missile defenses along their entire perimeter. Many of their facilities are buried deep underground, where only tactical nuclear weapons ("bunker-busters") would have any possibility of success.

According to reports, the Pentagon has been running war games too, and no matter the strategery, the scenarios has never been good for the U.S.

[whottt]

Israel will launch a pre-emptive strike on Iran giving every country in the middle east the excuse to go to war with Israel and inevitably dragging the US into a bigger ME war likely to be an even bigger cluster than things are now over there?

At least we are getting all of the dumb ideas out in the open.

Translation:

Oh the poor mideast civillians how Brutal Israel is.

[RandomGuy]

I think you might be underestimating a dictator's ability to hold onto power. He controls the military, the media, and the government. If it's in his best interest to foment dislike for the United States, regardless of how the US is actually behaving, he will.

He is not a dictator.

The real power structure in Iran has installed him as little more than a puppet that generally does what they want. Do a little more reading on the country, and you will find this is so.

US behavior is not entirely irrelevant. There is plenty we can do to weaken the nutbags in charge. Most notably that includes NOT taking military action, and not even threatening to do so.

[RandomGuy]

I don't think Iran poses a threat to the US right now, but they are shrewdly building alliances around the world.

Once again you overestimate them.

The Chinese have made it clear in no uncertain terms that they do not want Iran to have nukes either.

This was rather evident in a little publicized speech by a senior Chinese official at a conference in Iran that was stunned the Iranians who attended it with its disapproval of Irans attempts at nuclear power.

Neither do the Russians, who have their own problems with muslim extremists, want this.

As much as the Chinese and Russians want to counter balance US power, they will not do with the Revolutionary government of Iran.

There are other factors that complicate things, but that is the short of it.

[RandomGuy]

Hate to bring up a WWII analogy (get chastised for it), but Hitler got less than 40% of the vote. His was not a particularly popular position (especially with those over 30) in Germany. Didn't stop him

Iran is not an industrialised country capable of overrunning its neighbors, among other things.

The attempts at ww2 analogies just don't work and, more dangerously, lead one to conclusions that are the opposite of current reality.

[RandomGuy]

Since the Iranian people are completely oppressed by their government it seems the best course of action at this point is to work behind the scenes to empower the people to take on their government. The administrations main stance should be one of - "Iranian people - we are not against you. We would like to help you end the years of oppression you have been under." - or something to that effect. If the Iranians can secretly fund and fuel terrorists what's stopping us from secretly funding and fueling an uprising in Iran? I don't really know if this is completely feasible, and the downside is that there is no guarantee that a successful revolt would lead to a different Iran that is US friendly. Just like fueling Osama and the Afghans in the 80's against the Solviets solved one problem but led to another with the empowerment of Osama and his sect.

We did fund an uprising in Iran. That is part of the problem. Do some reading on how the Shah was put in power.

[101A]

He is not a dictator.

I am talking about Khameinei - from what I can tell, "Supreme Leader" pretty much fits the bill both in le and practice for this cat.

[RandomGuy]

I am talking about Khameinei - from what I can tell, "Supreme Leader" pretty much fits the bill both in le and practice for this cat.

AHHH.

I thought you were talking about Amedinejahd.

Even so, even Khameinei's power is far from absolute. The Iranian government is not a dictatorship. Power is spread among more than just one ular head.