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No, not at all.
Are we pretty sure that Nocioni is going to walk away from the Bulls at the end of the season?
No, not at all.
He's a "restricted" free agent, and the Bulls have the opportunity to match any offer he receives, so it's not a given that he's going anywhere. HOWEVER....
The Bulls, for now, have a star at that position in Luol Deng, used the second pick of last year's draft on another PF/SF type in Ty Thomas, paid out alot of money to Ben Wallace, and have to look long-term at the extensions they will grant to some of their players (Deng, Gordon, etc.). If some players choose to re-up with their respective teams in FA this year, Nocioni could conceivably get a $7-9M per year deal. That's alot of cheese for a franchise that looks like it's heading in another direction....
It's not a guarantee that he leaves, but it's possible.
If he gets an offer from a solid team(like the spurs,mavs,Miami,lakers,suns)+knowing that He may not be in the starting 5 next year either,HeŽll walk away from the bulls.
There are not a lot of teams with more money than the MLE this summer, with Gerald Wallace, Vince Carter, and other more pricey options than Nocioni potentially on the market, so I don't think Chapu could command more than the simple full MLE on the open market/Chicago letting him set his price. I could see Chicago working with someone for a S&T, perhaps for somewhat more than the MLE, to get players in return. Nocioni would obviously be a good fit for the Spurs. Already savvy and veteran, he can play SF but can easily play PF for small ball sets.
I guess it is just the opposite. and it is still not out of any possibilities, that Deng is the centerpiece of a trade for Gasol.
then it would be even more attracting for Nocioni to play for a Bulls team, that will be a contender for years to come.
(if it is Hinrich-Gordon-Nocioni-Gasol-Wallace)
If the Bulls don't try to lowball him with his new contract, I'm sure he would love to stay in Chicago.
Nocioni, Wallace ....
What's next ? Beno+Barrry+Rights to Scola for Lebron James ?
Don't be stupid. We're talking Nocioni this summer, who may distinctly be available.
Do you realize that it's highly unlikely ?
hm. why?
Wallace can opt out and be an unrestricted FA this summer.
will he get offers higher than MLE?
probably, but for sure no max. offers.
and why not a S&T with the Spurs? when talking S&T it needs some kind of agreement between the player and the new team in the first place. Spurs can't offer the Bobcats much, but a package, that is better than nothing. (think Butler+Beno+Oberto+pick?)
Bobcats have done quite well with picking underachievers in the past (Wallace, Brezec), they might give Butler and Beno also a try. they will need another center if Brezec leaves. (if they don't win Oden or Noah of course)
what if Wallace doesn't opt out and becomes a FA 2008? didn't we talk so much about the Spurs plan 2008 and being under the cap for 10 million?
could he be a target for a contract that starts at, let's say 7 million? why not.
all in all I wouldn't say that Wallace is out of the Spurs reach, if they decide that they really want him and not think they can get him for half MLE.
He has been slumping this year. Maybe it's time to buy him low!
Because Wallace will likely opt out this summer and if he doesn't re-sign with Charlotte or as a FA with a team under the cap, Bobcats will get better offers than some below average prospects and a late first round pick.
After you can always create unlikely scenarios like Wallace saying that he wants only play with SA this summer...
I wouldn't place it as 'highly' unlikely or laughable, as some have suggested. Chicago has to be a happy destination for Scola. Is he worth Nocioni alone? Of course not. But room for Noce is dwindling there somewhat, barring a trade in the meantime.
Do you realize that it's highly unlikely ?
There is zero chance that Nocioni or Wallace end up as Spurs next season unless the Spurs end up trading one of their big three.
This is the most important piece of what you said Bruno. It's not that Nocioni or Wallace won't be made available for sign-and-trades, but the Spurs just don't have THAT great of prospects to offer.
Chicago rarely uses the undersized power forwards they have already (malik allen, michael sweetney), so why would they be interested in Scola and give up Nocioni?
IMO...Scola, Butler, White, Mahinmi, and any of the other assets the Spurs currently have are more valuable to them than to any other team.
If Scola comes over and is productive....
If Butler and White show vast improvement in Summer League, Training Camp, and early next season....
If Mahinmi continues to show progress....
THEN, the Spurs will be in a position to deal those assets for "immediate help". But right now, there are plenty of other teams that could offer more than the Spurs...
common, I guess you can't blame me to babble about completly unreasonable scenarios in the past.
and I didn't claim that a S&T for Wallace is easy to finalize.
you just can't put a S&T on the same level like a trade!
would the Pacers have traded Brad Miller for Scott Pollard in 2003?
no they wouldn't. as a sign and trade it worked, because Miller and Kings agreed in the first place. (Kings were far over the cap and wouldn't have had any chance to land Miller as a FA)
would the Warriors have traded Dampier for Najera, Laettner and (late 1st round) picks back in 2004 (when he was much courted)? no!
would the Hawks have traded Harrington just for a trade exeption and a (non lottery) 1st rounder? also no!
of course a team like the Bobcats would want to trade with another team, that could offer more than the Spurs. but if the player and the potential new team find an agreement, it is possible. especiall since some cash can also be included.
the numbers can be combined easily since the Spurs will have either expiring contracts (2008 expiring) and the Horry contract, that can be used to make the numbers work, but the other team doesn't need to pay Horry if he retires, because the contract isn't guarranteed. (corret me if I I'm wrong on this)
so think of a scenario like this:
Wallace signs a contract better than MLE, guess 5 years, starting at 6.5 million, (would make a decent 40 million contract overall) he had agreed with the Spurs before. (guess that is a fair offer, can't see other teams offer him that much more, especially not the Bobcats)
Spurs give the Bobcats a package like this:
Horry (who retires), Butler, Mahinmi or Scola rights (whatever they prefer), a future 1st rounder, cash.
I know that this isn't breathtaking, but it also isn't something to sneeze about, especiall for a team like the Bobcats, who are always in the hunt for relatively cheap contracts to fill up the roster.
again. not easy to get done and the chance might be 10%.
but please don't call this completly unreasonable, because then some other S&Ts of the past also would have never happened.
I know that a S&T for a UFA isn't the same thing than a trade but you forget a lot of things.
First, if Charlotte thinks that there are no chances that Wallace re-signs with them or if they aren't ready to give him a big salary, they will likely trade him before the deadline. Spurs won't be able to get him in a trade before the deadline because other teams will have best offers available.
Second, if he is still with Charlotte and doesn't want to re-sign with them, he can sign with a team under the cap without a S&T.
Third, if he can't find a team under the cap ready that he likes and ready to give him a big contract, he will work on a S&T. The team that will get him will either overpay him (like for Dampier), be a team that Wallace really like (like for Harrington) or offer the best package to Charlotte.
All in all, if Spurs want to getWallace they will need that :
- Wallace isn't traded at the dealine.
- Wallace doesn't re-sign with Charlotte.
- No team under the cap interested in Wallace.
- Spurs is the most attractive team in the league for Wallace and it will happen only if Holt overpays for Wallace () or if Wallace is a Spurs' fan.
Maybe chances that a S&T happen with Wallace is 10% (there are maybe 1 or 2 S&T with an UFA each year) but a S&T with San Antonio should be around 0.5%.
I'm sorry to break your dream but your scenario is highly unlikely.
this was the start of all my thoughts.
the teams, that will be able to offer better than MLE contracts will be:
Bobcats (assuming he doesn't want to resign)
Hawks (Childress, Williams, Smith)
Grizzlies (Gay, Miller, Warrick)
Bucks (Simmons,
Magic (Ariza, Hedo)
(if there isn't a team, that makes a big salary dumping move at deadline)
none of this teams will throw their money at an athletic SF like Wallace, since all of them have this type of player and/or are 2 player deep at SF.
that's why I said I don't see Wallace get those big offers.
ok, let's try this way.
why not?
the Spurs could offer something few other teams can right now. they are a top team, for at least 3 more seasons with an open slot for years to fill.
they are probably the only one of the contender teams, that does have this role to offer, since other top teams like Mavs (Howard), Suns (Marion, Diaw, Jones), Jazz (AK47, Harpring), Rockets (Battier, T-mac), Nuggets (Melo), Lakers (Walton, Radmanovic) Wizards (Butler), Bulls (Deng, Nocioni), Pacers (granger, Dunleavy), Pistons (Prince), Cavs (Lebron) have a long term solution at the SF spot.
the Spurs are the ONLY (yes, in fact the only) top team in the league, that can offer such a big role for Wallace right now. why should a player like Wallace, who's qualities would nowhere be as wellcomed as they would be in SA, NOT be a Spurs fan? (better: be a fan of the idea to play for the Spurs)
The Atlanta Hawks and Charlotte Bobcats have one thing in common that works to your point...they're penny-pinching idiots. That means it's possible for them to look to a S&T to get more cheap prospects and expiring contracts.
The one thing I'd change about your Scenario is Horry...his contract expires at the end of this year and you can't trade assets you don't own. Instead, trade Barry, who will be making about $6M and entering the last year of his contract. Barry would give them a shooter to supplement Carroll and an expiring contract for the next year when they begin negotiations on extensions...
Then throw in a young prospect (probably Butler) and a pick, then call it a day....
EDIT: Sorry I misspoke on Horry's contract expiring. So if he retires post-trade, is his salary still counted against Charlotte for the salary cap? If not, then it makes sense for them to do it with Horry, but Barry gives them a future expiring contract AND some shooting ability.
I can see Milwaukee making a run for Wallace and you should realize that you are on the most unlikley scenario. if Charlotte feel that Walalce won't re-sign, they will trade him at the deadline.
No, Mavs can offer him a big role : they can start Howard at SG like they have done lately by putting George in the starting lineup. And Cuban will likely offer a bigger contract than Spurs to Wallace. Miami can too be interested. There are too other teams that aren't real contenders but can be interested in him.
Horry last year of contract is partially guaranteed. If he retires, he will received only a part of his salary (less than 50%).
Mavs would duplicate what they have in Josh Howard. not that this wasn't a good thing, but they can improve their team more, if they invest in other positions. (question will be, if they resign Stack though.)
Miami has a Wallace in the making in Dorell Wright. well, maybe if they think that Wright still needs two more years, but their window is closing fast, it could make sense, if they use Wright as the teaser in a S&T offer and prefer an immediat contributer. Wright would look better for the Bobcats, than what the Spurs can offer.
that's why I mentioned the money. Horry would be there to make the numbers work, but wouldn't cost the Bobcats anything. the guarranteed part of Horry's contract is covered by the Spurs money.
so the Bobcats would get 3 players back. I think they would prefer the Mahinmi rights, they are much less of a risk for them and would guarrantee another cheap player for 4 years. (if I can chose, I would keep Scola anyhow)
Bobcats might not need Barry, if they resign Carroll they have the same kind of player in a 10 years younger version. (to be fair, the 10 years younger Barry was better, the 36 years old Barry is worse than Carroll)
about the Bobcats: they have 10 players under contract this summer, 3 have an opt out clause (Wallace and Brezec will likely use it), 2 are a team option (don't think that they use the one on Knight).
so they will likely need to get 6-8 new players or resign some of the expiring.
they will get another 2 via draft, maybe finally the big hit in Oden or Durant.
but as usual they will have to fill the roster with relativly cheap contracts, that makes the Spurs a bit more attractive, because Beno, Butler, Oberto, Mahinmi (rookie scale) and White more or less would meet that description.
fat? brother has 5-7 body fat %
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