You got it right...it will be tough...very tough...
But what you said does sound very familiar (but not for the Mavs run last year, although I could definitely see that). In fact, it sounds eerily like the 2005 playoff run for the Spurs. That was when they had to face the thugs of Denver (yet they were a pretty damn good number 7 seed... and went into playoffs with some momentum if I remember correctly) and the thugs of Seattle (a bit more disrespectful...remember jerome james' "I give them no respect" comment?). Then the Spurs had to out-potentize the potent offense of the Suns, in a quick 5 games with high scoring I might add (except they forgot to out-potent amare...). THEN they had to finish it off against what many called their mirror-image, the mighty Detroit Pistons...
And we have to remember that run was with a hurt and limited Tim Duncan (although it was also with an insane Manu). But yes, I do think this year, the road might actually be a bit more difficult for the Spurs (MIGHT...that '05 didn't really seem like a walk in the park)...dallas and phoenix have improved (not to mention, Houston with Yao back should start looking much more dangerous pretty soon), Spurs are older of course, and they have looked a step behind for much of the season (although they're starting to get it together).
But assuming that Tim will remain 100% healthy and dominant, Parker recovers fully and quickly from his hip setback (which I think the Spurs are handling with a "better safe than sorry" approach anyways), and Manu's great regular season translates into an even greater '07 Playoff Manu (or I'll even take this year's regular-season Manu), with a focused and productive bench (mainly Elson, Barry, and Finley annnnd I guess some 3's from Rob won't hurt)...I think the Spurs will have to be considered one of the main contenders for the le along with the Mavs, Suns, and Pistons (I really don't want to make the mistake of ignoring the Pistons, like everyone did in '04). Now, keep in mind that much of these conditions have already been met or are currently, as we speak, in the process of being met.
Yeah...I don't know what this sportswriter in Dallas is thinking...I would be a bit annoyed if Buck Harvey or Johnny Ludden said something like that...although I have to confess, I haven't been reading as much of their articles since I've moved out here to LA, so I don't know if they have said anything that comes near to this level of stupidity...but I would doubt that they have.
"absolutely no shot"...yeah...sure, buddy...