It may not be snowing now...but it's ing cold.
Where in Texas would it be a surefire place to snow this weekend?
A friend of mine just cancelled her trip to NM because a lot of the highways are closing down in NM.
She'd like to see snow this Christmas - a real snow - not just the basic we'll probably get tomorrow or Friday.
Drive torwards Lubbock if it's that important. I know much of North Texas has had some serious snowfall and I don't think it'll be warm enough to melt it. There were parts of the panhandle with heavy snow advisories today, and most of North Texas was in a Winter Storm Warning.
My family and I are planning on heading up to Oklahoma sometime after Christmas to see some snow. But I don't think it will happen.
Good news for those who want snow. The low is forming and it's forming stronger than earlier anticipated. Also the increased cloud cover is an indicator of increased moisture. This is a good thing because even though increased moisture keeps it warmer tonight, it will also keep it cooler on thursday and give more fuel to the snow fire...so to speak.AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
912 PM CST WED DEC 22 2004
.UPDATE...
ONLY SOME SUBTLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. WITH WINDS
EXPECTED TO STAY UP MOST OF THE NIGHT AND SCATTERED CLOUDS EXPECTED
THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT, HAVE BUMPED OVERNIGHT MINS UP A FEW
DEGREES OVER THE HILL COUNTRY. FOR THURSDAY, HAVE ADJUSTED A FEW
MORE CLOUDS INTO THE MIX AFTER LOOKING UPSTREAM TOWARD THE
DEVELOPING LEAF OF HIGHER CLOUDS FROM THE DIGGING UPPER LOW TO THE
WEST AND A SURGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH CLOUDS. FOR FRIDAY, MADE A
SUBTLE CHANGE TO PRESENT A UNIFORM SLIGHT CHC, THEN LOW CHC POPS
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPSTREAM LOW TRANSFORMS INTO A
POSITIVELY SHEARED UPPER TROUGH BEFORE SWINGING ACROSS. NEW ETA SHOWS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO COME THROUGH SLOWER, AND IF
CORRECT, THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT AC ULATIONS WOULD INCREASE AND
EXTEND INTO FRIDAY EVENING. FOR NOW, WILL NOT CHANGE THE FRIDAY
EVENING FORECAST AND LET THE MID SHIFT COMPARE THIS TREND AGAINST THE
UPCOMING GFS RUN.
Damn Manny....you missed your calling. You're doing a better job than any of our local personalities. Keep it up and whip up a blizzard while you're at it!
That's because all you're average weatherman does is read that discussion there and make pretty maps to go along with it. The NWS does all the work, and these ers on TV always act like it's "their" forcast.Damn Manny....you missed your calling. You're doing a better job than any of our local personalities. Keep it up and whip up a blizzard while you're at it!
Precicely my point!
EARLY EVENING SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SHARP INCREASE OF MOISTURE WITH
HEIGHT JUST ABOVE 850 MB WHICH IS A LEVEL WHERE SOME SNOWFALL AMOUNT
RULES OF THUMB ARE GENERATED. THE H7-H5 LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
MOSTLY OPEN WITH A PART OF THIS LOW CUT-OFF AND PASSING WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA INITIALLY. AM A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT THE SHAPE OF
THE H5 LOW BRIEFLY BECOMING MORE ROUNDED AS IT REACHES THE SOUTH TX
GULF COAST WHICH MIGHT POINT TOWARD A SLIGHT DEEPENING DESPITE A
FILLING OF THE LOW ACCORDING TO THE ETA. AS A RESULT, HAVE EXTENDED
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVENING AND RAISED
THE NUMERICAL POPS TO 10-20 PERCENT. MODEL FORECASTS STILL SHOW AN
ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR AT H85 AND LOWER SO WILL NOT STRAY FAR FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN TERMS OF AMOUNTS; IN OTHER WORDS STILL NO
AC ULATIONS EXPECTED. QUICK PEEK AT GFS SHOWS SIMILAR FEATURES TO
THE ETA WITH A DEEPER AND SLIGHTLY FASTER TRACK. IF THIS WERE A
RAIN EVENT, THESE SUBTLETIES WOULD BE HARDLY WORTH MENTIONING, BUT
THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN THE SLIGHTEST FROZEN AC ULATION HAS HUGE
IMPACTS CONSIDERING THE DAY OF THE YEAR. OTHER PARAMETERS OF THE
FORECAST REMAIN IN GOOD SHAPE AND WERE NOT CHANGED.
The low still has a chance of closing off which would increse lift 10 fold and there is aboundant moisture where snow forms. However, the problem lies with the incredible lack of moisture at the surface. The air is so dry that if snow does form and beings to fall, it'll take a serious hit in evaporation at the lower levels, so more than likely we won't see anything. Not even flurries. There's still a chance however, crazier things have happend, but I woudln't stay up all night watching if I were you.
Bring it on es....
I don't mean to go SAT on you but uh ...
timvp : snow :: Karl Malone : Championship Rings
Break out the t-shirts, folks. Snow ain't happening.
It never was.
Maybe in January or February, but December is too damn early.
I love how the nimrods like Bill Taylor a week ago
"IT MIGHT SNOW CHRISTMAS EVE!!!"
Oh BS, it is not, STFU, and just report the REAL weather tool.
, just why is December too early? It's snowing SOUTH Of here in Texas as we speak, yet December is too early why? This is actualy the COLDEST historical week for San Antonio, so again, why is it too early?
Perhaps you can clue us in with your "intelligence"?
BTW, the only reason is not snowing is due to a lack of surface moisture, so again, why is it too early?
You want to know why I can't stand you? You open your ignorant mouth EVERY ING TIME YOU SHOULDN'T!
NEWSFLASH- TPARK IS A MORON WITH A LARGE MOUTH.
LJ, if you want to see snow today, take a 1 hour drive south and I bet you'll see it falling.
Alice is about 2 hours away though -
This is out of the Corpus NWS office
If the models are underplaying this low STILL, then when it moves through the area tonight it could be strong enough to drag moisture to the surface levels to a point where we actually do see snowfall.AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
430 AM CST FRI DEC 24 2004
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO A
STRONGER AND SLOWER SOLUTION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS GIVES CREDENCE TO A STRONGER SOLUTION WITH AN
UPPER LOW FORMING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. 00Z 50H ANALYSIS SHOWED MUCH
STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE THAN WAS FORECAST
BY THE MODELS LAST NIGHT. STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET...160 KNOTS AT
25H...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET LOCATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
WINTRY PRECIPITATION EVENT SLOWLY EVOLVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA
FOR TODAY. COLD AIR HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING. ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS BEEN STEADILY INCREASING OVER THE
REGION WITH KCRP VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWING WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME
IN PLACE IN THE 5-10 KFT LAYER. KCRP RADAR LOOP SHOWS LIGHT RETURNS
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND ATTM. LOOKING AT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...DRY LAYER IN PLACE FROM SURFACE TO 2KFT ALLOWING
PRECIPITATION TO CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW...ALICE ASOS HAS BEEN
REPORT LIGHT SNOW FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...DUE TO WET BULB
COOLING. WILL GO WITH A FORECAST OF LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY MIXED WITH
OR CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL BEND. EXPECT THIS WET-BULB COOLING WILL HELP BRING THE
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY DOWN TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION
LATER THIS MORNING AND STAY THERE FOR THE DAY. SUSPECT MODELS MAY
BE OVERDOING LOW LEVEL DRYING AS CEILINGS HAVE LOWERED TO BELOW
3KFT FROM KBKS TO KINGSVILLE. WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND FOR THIS MORNING MAINLY AS A
PRECAUTION WITH THE AMOUNT OF TRAVEL ON THIS DAY BEFORE THE HOLIDAY.
DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OR PROBLEMS BUT ANY WINTRY
PRECIP FOR SOUTH TEXAS WILL LIKELY BE CONSIDERED SIGNIFICANT.
WITH A STRONGER UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS...MODELS ARE
INDICATING A VERY STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELD MOVING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE COLD/DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE IS STILL
THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR AC ULATING PRECIPITATION. BUT IT LOOKS AS
IF THE STRONG UPWARD MOTION WILL LEAD TO SATURATION OF THE LOWER
LEVELS AND PROVIDE ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION
FOR TONIGHT MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE EVENT SHOULD BE ALL SNOW FOR THIS CHRISTMAS
EVE. STILL TOO UNCERTAIN TO MENTION ANY HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME AND
WILL ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO ASCERTAIN ADVISORY POSSIBILITIES FOR TNGT.
WILL GO AHEAD WITH ANOTHER FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT.
There are so many unkowns here that it's hard to rule anything out. Now, this is still a longshot, but a shot none the less.
A look at radar shows returns over Bexar County right now, but I don't know if that's reaching the ground or if it's just evaporating.
There are returns over southern Bexar County but I don't know if it's reaching the ground. However, it might be snowing in San Antonio as we speak
REPORT OF LIGHT SNOW FALLING IN DEWITT COUNTY HAS PROMPTED A SNOW
ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR ATASCOSA, KARENS,DEWITT AND LAVACA
COUNTIES. BRIGHT BANDING ON RADAR IS INCREASING AND STRETCHES FROM
WEBB COUNTY TO LAVACA COUNTY AND INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. NO OTHER
CHANGES FROM EARLIER MORNING UPDATE.
ADJUSTING SOME MAX TEMPS UP THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND WINDS
KEPT TEMPS FROM FALLING AS LOW AS PREDICTED. UPPER LOW STILL
DIGGING SOUTH. BEST LIFT AND VORTICITY ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
WILL RESULT IN AN ATMOSPHERIC SNOW PROFILE. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES BEING WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS AND AIR BELOW THE
CLOUDS SO DRY, CAN EXPECTED A FEW FLURRIES BEFORE ALL CLOUD LAYERS
BEGIN TO LEAVE THE AREA TONIGHT.
So close, yet so godamn far.
that band is migrating every so slightly north, it's such a damn tease because I don't think there's anyway in it makes it to SA.
Thanks Albert Flores.
No problem Mr. Stay Puff.
Merry Christmas.
Ok, I'm going to let this die for now...
Those of you on the South East Sides of town will probably get at least flurries. East of 35 will all probably see some flakes,but the highway seems to be the dividing line.
After another few hours it's gone.
I'm cold, I'm going to go eat Tamales
the snow gods.
So damn close!
You are sooo not living up to your screen name.....(thankfully so).
Merry Christmas Manny and thanks for the updates.
Tpark....
It's a good thing you were born with the silver carnival coupon up your ass because man, you are wrong at well....EVERYTHING.
Damn. So did I lose?
I really did lose.
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