Mike Monroe: Elson making new adjustment

[Obstructed_View]

What if the following situation plays out:

1) Elson plays as well as expected and can be had for a reasonable contract next summer.

2) Horry again plays well in the playoffs and doesn't want to retire.

3) Mahinmi plays well in Austin and shows good potential.

4) Splitter either has to be brought over or else his contract is automatically extend with Tau (which is actually the case).

5) Oberto and Bonner prove that they are worthy of their contract.

6) Duncan remains Duncan.

What should the Spurs do if all six above points are true next summer? You simply can't have an NBA roster with seven bigmen. Even six is stretching it.

How would you solve that riddle?

Thanks.

Horry's getting a gold watch at the end of this season, repeat or no. If Elson has a good year the Spurs may not be able to afford to keep him. Splitter's coming no matter what IMO.

[diego]

the answer is simple: the FO will choose the smaller contract between splitter and elson.

if elson has good enough a season to want to keep him, he will likely be substantially more expensive than splitter. therefore, the spurs will take splitter.

the only other scenario (besides the most likely, horry's retirement) that i can imagine is that mahinmi is a injury riddled disaster and they drop him for splitter. obterto and bonner are under contract so they are safe.

[Bruno]

9 months ago, everybody was worried about the lack of quality bigmen around Duncan. 9 months later, people are speculating that Spurs could have too much quality bigmen next year. It's crazy how things go fast.

[ShoogarBear]

I doubt Horry has another season in him, but in that case, you trade one of the bigs for something else you need. Not that difficult.

Cause the Spurs are so good at trading bigs for something they need.

Maybe they can trade one to Houston for the rights to Calvin Murphy.

[ShoogarBear]

What if the following situation plays out:

1) Elson plays as well as expected and can be had for a reasonable contract next summer.

2) Horry again plays well in the playoffs and doesn't want to retire.

3) Mahinmi plays well in Austin and shows good potential.

4) Splitter either has to be brought over or else his contract is automatically extend with Tau (which is actually the case).

5) Oberto and Bonner prove that they are worthy of their contract.

6) Duncan remains Duncan.

What should the Spurs do if all six above points are true next summer? You simply can't have an NBA roster with seven bigmen. Even six is stretching it.

How would you solve that riddle?

Thanks.

I think the best solution would be to gently prod Horry into retirement.

But the Peter Holt solution would be to not sign Elson.

[Darkwaters]

9 months ago, everybody was worried about the lack of quality bigmen around Duncan. 9 months later, people are speculating that Spurs could have too much quality bigmen next year. It's crazy how things go fast.

Well, a lot has happened since then. 9 months ago Scola was still and option and Jackie Butler was the talk of the town. Tiago Splitter was more likely to be a Piston than a Spur and Ian was supposed to spend 1-2 more years in Europe. Bonner was less athletic and more one-dimensional, Elson's face was still in one piece and people were still complaining that we hadn't signed Robertas Javtokas.

Much has changed.

[Darkwaters]

In my opinion Duncan, Oberto, Bonner and Mahinmi will have spots for certain in 08-09. Duncan and Oberto's contributions are self-evident, Bonner's unique skill-set makes him indispensible, and there is zero chance they will give up on Mahinmi after just one season no matter how he performs.

So that leaves questions of Horry, Elson and Splitter. Barring a Javtokas style injury, I see no reason for Splitter NOT to be in uniform next season. No matter how good Elson or Horry play this year the Spurs realize that Splitter is their future in the frontcourt. And after the Scola debacle they will not let him slip through their fingers. I doubt Horry will want to play another year, but I don't see the Spurs turning him down if he wants another go. They'll need good vets to mentor Splitter and Mahinmi.

So, once more, the odd man out is Elson. It is generally believed that either Splitter or Mahinmi will be able to replace his skill-set once they are up and going. If both of those guys are on the team then Elson is the most expendable. But if Horry retires then I have no problem keeping Elson....especially if he comes at a reasonable price and comes with the understanding that his minutes will likely be diminished once Splitter and the long 3 get here. If the Spurs are looking to keep Elson next year then he will likely be seeking a multi-year contract. So here comes the next big question:

If Horry retires and the Spurs bigman roster is as follows (Duncan, Oberto, Bonner, Splitter, Mahinmi) then what type of contract do you offer Elson? How many years and how much money?

[ShoogarBear]

9 months ago, everybody was worried about the lack of quality bigmen around Duncan. 9 months later, people are speculating that Spurs could have too much quality bigmen next year. It's crazy how things go fast.

Well, the jury is still out on the "quality" of Mahinmi, Splitter, and Elson. And Oberto's quality is more reflective of the way he complements Duncan. So is more a question of numbers than quality.

Let's just say I'd trade any four of them for one Nenad Krstic or Udonis Haslem-type.

[Bruno]

Well, the jury is still out on the "quality" of Mahinmi, Splitter, and Elson. And Oberto's quality is more reflective of the way he complements Duncan. So is more a question of numbers than quality.

I agree that the jury is still out. Elson and Mahinmi could end up as big scrubs.
It's still possible than Spurs bigmen "quality" won't be enough in the future but the situation seems to be way better than 9 months ago.

[Bruno]

If Horry retires and the Spurs bigman roster is as follows (Duncan, Oberto, Bonner, Splitter, Mahinmi) then what type of contract do you offer Elson? How many years and how much money?

It depends on Mahinmi.
A team usually carry 5 PF/C on the active roster.
Duncan, Oberto, Bonner and Splitter are almost locks to be in the rotation.
If Mahinmi is ready to be in the rotation next year, I think Spurs must sign a cheap vet as insurance and put him on the IL. If Elson is ready to sign for less than $2M per year, he could be a good solution.
If Mahinmi isn't ready and Elson has a quite good season, Spurs could offer him between $2M and 4$M per year with a 2 or 3 years contract.

[polandprzem]

9 months ago, everybody was worried about the lack of quality bigmen around Duncan. 9 months later, people are speculating that Spurs could have too much quality bigmen next year. It's crazy how things go fast.

Too much talent and quality in a team is not a problem.

There are always a weak point in somebody and always you can say GTFO to him ...


ps. timvp will you find some time to answer to my PM I've sended like a week ago?

[ChumpDumper]

Cause the Spurs are so good at trading bigs for something they need.

With all the contracts they have signed, they are no longer limited in the number of years a contract they take back can have as they have in the past. There are many more possible trades open to the Spurs now.

[diego]

9 months ago, everybody was worried about the lack of quality bigmen around Duncan. 9 months later, people are speculating that Spurs could have too much quality bigmen next year. It's crazy how things go fast.

more than saying we have quality bigmen, i'd say we have enough capable bigmen to suffice with duncan's quality. i guess before we didnt think duncan and a couple role players was enough in the middle- of course, horry and oberto showing up to the playoffs helped change minds. these decisions are more about getting younger, and covering needs within the cap. mahinmi and splitter are the prospects, bonner has a very specific niche and a new contract, and then you've got elson who up to now has underperformed. in all likelihood, horry will opt out making all of this moot. but if he didnt, and elson played really well, would the spurs go with elson and (trade?) splitter (more established player argument), or go with the cheaper rookie contract (finance first argument). does anyone really think they wouldn't go cheap?

also, they could try to sign and trade them both for someone else... but i doubt anything happens