Why Phoenix Made The Deal For Shaq - Eddie Johnson

[Xylus]

Trading Kurt Thomas was one of the dumbest things the Suns have ever done. Ever.

[Joe Schmoogins]

Spurs have never won back-to-back championships

The last time this scenario came to bear, the Dallas Mavericks used a physical combination of Erick Dampier and DeSagana Diop to wear down the Amare-less Suns to move on to the Finals against Shaq and the Heat. The Spurs have showed signs of wear and tear and the Suns do not want to miss out again on this opportunity.

Operation:Fly Under Radar is now in full effect



"Throw me a friggin bone here"

[diego]

of course there are advantages to gaining shaq, anybody who questions that is silly. the problem for the suns is the disadvantages of losing marion- namely, rebounding, 3pt shooting, and minutes (for all the deficencies in marion's game, he was quite the ironman, while shaq has been hampered by injuries for at least 5 years now). the nash/amare/shaq pick and roll will be deadly, but on defense they are going to get burned by the p&r too. shaq was never really so much a good defender, but more of an intimidator. and we have two guys who are not afraid of him in the least in TD and manu.

the main issue though is health and how much he'll be able to play for them. it will be very interesting to see how all this plays out. i'll be surprised to see shaq play more than 30mpg.

[T Park]

Trading Kurt Thomas was one of the dumbest things the Suns have ever done. Ever.

Can't argue with that

[conqueso]

You dont need five guys to run a fast break either. 4 is good enough.

While it's true that it doesn't take 5 guys to fast break, that's truly a re ed comment to make. Marion was, without a doubt, their best fast break finisher. They have given that away in return for someone who absolutely cannot be a part of the primary break, and might not even be a part of the secondary break. So while the Suns can still possibly fast break because "it doesn't take 5 guys to fast break," their fast break just got a LOT worse because they lost their best fast break finisher and didn't get anyone who can effect anything except the rebound at the very start of the break. So not only have the Suns picked up a worse defensive rebounder and a much worse fast break runner, they've given up their best fast break finisher too.

And this is supposed to "improve their running game?" Is this what passes for insightful journalism these days? .

Just admit that you're wrong so we can all move on.

[exstatic]

It's not his homerism that bothers me, but instead his inveterate re ation. I also find it unbelievable that people think his points are "logical," when they are anything but.

Here's the deal with Shaq. It would be a stretch for Shaq to play more than 24 mpg for the Suns even when healthy because of all the running, which means they're going to have to rely on Diaw and his $9 million (!) contract and Brian Skinner and his multi-colored goatie for most of the remaining 24 mpg. Marion was averaging 36.5 mpg, so that means an extra 12 minutes per game of either Skinner or Diaw, which should be a terrifying prospect for Suns fans.

But even when Shaq is in the game, he doesn't make them that much better. Yes, Shaq and Amare create matchup problems for the Spurs and Mavs and Lakers (until Bynum returns). The Rockets--who matchup up very well with them since Yao can Shaq and Scola performed well against Gasol in international play--aren't an elite team with any chance of going deep into the playoffs. But which one is Dirk going to guard? Which one is Duncan going to guard? That's kind of a pick-your-poison deal, since even though Shaq is like 40 years old, he still weighs ten times his age and is still strong as , and banging with him will wear out whoever has to guard him.

Here's the thing though: the Suns have two paths they can follow with Shaq. Either they can try to make him fit in with the Suns' system (which is like the ultimate square peg in a round hole as Hollinger pointed out), or they can change the whole way their team approaches the game to accommodate Shaq. With the first option, Shaq will be pretty much useless, since it takes him :07 Seconds or MORE just to run down to the offensive end of the court...the Suns will have already shot the ball by the time his fat ass joins the play.

With the second option, the Suns do what everyone has been telling them they need to do to push it to a championship next level: slow the tempo down and commit to defense. No doubt this was Kerr's motivation for trading for Shaq; create matchup problems and slow everything WAY the down. While this is a compelling move that is probably a good strategy generally, you would need to do more than trade Marion for Shaq to mold a team committed to defense. First, you would have to give Amare a brain transplant, since his ego won't allow him to play defense if it won't result in a highlight reel dunk. Second, you would need to just bench Nash, because he's a ty defender to his core. And third and finally, you'd have to fire D'Antoni, because he just couldn't bring himself to grind everything down to a more reasonable, "boring," championship-winning pace.

But if the Suns do try to play more ugly ball with Shaq to utilize his strengths more, they just won't be the same team. For one thing, you don't have to double Shaq anymore because he's old and crippled, and so many of the threes taken by the Suns are wide-open in transition. If they slow down the break, all of those dry up. For another thing, changing the team to suit Shaq's skills moves the team away from a style that suits Nash's skills. He is not a spectacular half court point guard. In fact, he's probably not even one of the top 5 point guards in the league in the half court game. He's a full court, fast-breaking point guard, which is why he went from kinda-All-Star to ing ridiculous MVP overnight when he moved from Dallas to Phoenix. Even though that Nellie Ball he was playing in Dallas was still fast-paced, it was nothing like the :07 Second or Less Suns, and his effectiveness reflected that.

If Phoenix is content to trade their MVP's domination for MAYBE 16 and 7 out of Shaq, then they should go ahead with this trade. But I don't think they've thought through all the "chemistry" issues thoroughly if they think replacing a whiny Marion with ing Shaq is going to actually make their team run more smoothly, either on or off the court.

As for this idiot's specific points, I hear the point that better defensive rebounding could speed up the Suns, but it's not like you're getting a big improvement with Shaq in there: Marion averages 10 rpg this year (8.1 defensive rebounds per game), while Shaq only averages 7.8 rpg this year (4.8 defensive rebounds per game). Last year he averaged only 7.4 with 5 defensive boards. Plus, Marion was fast enough and athletic enough to do what DRob did way back in the day, which is grab a defensive board, outlet, and then run the floor so he could be involved in the finish. Shaq cannot do that. So with Shaq, you're getting a guy who's a worse defensive rebounder and much worse fast break runner,

While it's true that it doesn't take 5 guys to fast break, that's truly a re ed comment to make. Marion was, without a doubt, their best fast break finisher. They have given that away in return for someone who absolutely cannot be a part of the primary break, and might not even be a part of the secondary break. So while the Suns can still possibly fast break because "it doesn't take 5 guys to fast break," their fast break just got a LOT worse because they lost their best fast break finisher and didn't get anyone who can't effect anything except the rebound at the very start of the break. So not only have the Suns picked up a worse defensive rebounder and a much worse fast break runner, they've given up their best fast break finisher too.

And this is supposed to "improve their running game?" Is this what passes for insightful journalism these days? .

I agree that they're a more physical team now. BFD. Horry didn't win that series last summer for the Spurs, Timmy D and Amare's ego did. So what if he can't shoulder check Nash for fear of the Big Gorilla's retaliation? And even though Shaq may help clog the paint and make interior scoring more difficult, the next step in his logical chain ignores the fact that the Suns have replaced one of their best jump shooters with a guy who can't make a shot from further than 5 feet out: "That means teams will take more jump shots and the Suns are better at that game than anyone in the league." Is it fair to just assume that the Suns will still be the best in the league at the jump shooting game now that their speed on the break has taken a huge hit and they've lost one of their best jump shooters? Christ, who the decided to give this fool a blog?

I agree with him that teams will have to change the way they guard Amare on the high pick and roll, which is not going to cause some massive upheaval in the league. So they can't double off of Shaq...so what? They'll double off of Barbosa or Bell, which is just about as bad as doubling off of Marion from a three point perspective, so it's not like teams can't apply the same strategy. They just need to add a minor tweak.

As one last point, I think Amare might find it a little more difficult to score in the post with a huge blob like Shaq taking up so much space. Before, with Marion out wide, he had lots of room to work and space to use his athleticism to break free of his defender for a dunk. Now he's got to share that space with the basketball equivalent of the anic. And Amare's supposed to become more dominant? WTF?

+1

[Cry Havoc]

Just admit that you're wrong so we can all move on.

+2

Your summation, though lengthy, is absolutely spot-on.

Still, I can't fault Phoenix for taking a shot. I just think there had to be better out there than Shaq.

[callo1]

The dominance that we were used to see was not there on a consistent basis.

.../perplexed


What is the definition of dominance now days. How does ZERO Finals appearances equate to dominance.

[usckk]

I'm still perplexed by the Suns’ trade. High-octane offense requires premium unleaded, not DIESEL. Now, black smoke will engulf us when the Spurs burn them later.

[mardigan]

Just admit that you're wrong so we can all move on.

Who ever said he would improve their running game? That would be a stupid thing to say. All I said is they would still be able to run, and despite your long informative reply, I'm still pretty sure they will be able to run.

[LaMarcus Bryant]

I'd be interested to see a list of acquisitions made by teams holding the lead in their conference at the date of the trade during the last 20 seasons.


FromWayDowntown, I'm looking in your direction.

[T Park]

Now, black smoke will engulf us when the Spurs burn them later.

Or if hes on a diet he could be like Bio Diesel and run clean.

[Louie Vega]

Kerr just following the blueprint from the Spurs. Twin towers part 2. Let Stoudemire have all the glory and let Shaq sit back and play defense.

[SirChaz]

It's not his homerism that bothers me, but instead his inveterate re ation. I also find it unbelievable that people think his points are "logical," when they are anything but.

Nice ad hominem attack.

Here's the deal with Shaq. It would be a stretch for Shaq to play more than 24 mpg for the Suns even when healthy because of all the running, which means they're going to have to rely on Diaw and his $9 million (!) contract and Brian Skinner and his multi-colored goatie for most of the remaining 24 mpg. Marion was averaging 36.5 mpg, so that means an extra 12 minutes per game of either Skinner or Diaw, which should be a terrifying prospect for Suns fans.

False premise. Shaq does not need to run out on the fast break. 5 man fast breaks are rare. There is no problem with him trailing the play. Plus who is to say Diaw or Skinner has to fill in the remaining minutes Marion played? Marion didn't play center anyway so wouldn't other wing players get a big portion of those minutes?

But even when Shaq is in the game, he doesn't make them that much better. Yes, Shaq and Amare create matchup problems for the Spurs and Mavs and Lakers (until Bynum returns). The Rockets--who matchup up very well with them since Yao can Shaq and Scola performed well against Gasol in international play--aren't an elite team with any chance of going deep into the playoffs. But which one is Dirk going to guard? Which one is Duncan going to guard? That's kind of a pick-your-poison deal, since even though Shaq is like 40 years old, he still weighs ten times his age and is still strong as , and banging with him will wear out whoever has to guard him.

Shaq creates space and draws attention on offense and he is a good passer. The Suns space the floor as well as anyone and Shaq helps in that regard.

Here's the thing though: the Suns have two paths they can follow with Shaq. Either they can try to make him fit in with the Suns' system (which is like the ultimate square peg in a round hole as Hollinger pointed out), or they can change the whole way their team approaches the game to accommodate Shaq. With the first option, Shaq will be pretty much useless, since it takes him :07 Seconds or MORE just to run down to the offensive end of the court...the Suns will have already shot the ball by the time his fat ass joins the play.

The Suns have been running much less already this season. They also shoot less trees in transition than they did in previous years. The Suns "style" is already changing and slowing down before Shaq even gets here. They clearly will lose Marion's leak-outs and steals that get them easy baskets but Hill and Barbosa run very well so I expect the fast break to continue when they have opportunities.

If it takes Shaq more than :07 to get down the floor and the Suns score quicker than that then Shaq is running less than anyone on the team and therefore the concerns about him being not being able to run are moot. If they don't score in :07 then they run a set with Shaq in the half court mix. Where is the conflict here?

With the second option, the Suns do what everyone has been telling them they need to do to push it to a championship next level: slow the tempo down and commit to defense. No doubt this was Kerr's motivation for trading for Shaq; create matchup problems and slow everything WAY the down. While this is a compelling move that is probably a good strategy generally, you would need to do more than trade Marion for Shaq to mold a team committed to defense. First, you would have to give Amare a brain transplant, since his ego won't allow him to play defense if it won't result in a highlight reel dunk. Second, you would need to just bench Nash, because he's a ty defender to his core. And third and finally, you'd have to fire D'Antoni, because he just couldn't bring himself to grind everything down to a more reasonable, "boring," championship-winning pace.

The Suns biggest problem has generally been offensive rebounding. They give up too many second and third shot opportunities. When Kurt Thomas was collecting defensive rebounds, holding teams to one and done, they are an average to decent defensive team. With Shaq boxing out they should be able to improve the defensive rebounding and they should be able to protect the lane better when he is in there. I don't think the issue is slowing the game down because that clearly happens in the playoffs (or anytime they play the Spurs), it is about executing on both sides of the floor. Executing at a fast or slow pace is just as effective even though the Suns prefer the faster pace because other teams don't and they like to attack before the opponent can set the defense.

But if the Suns do try to play more ugly ball with Shaq to utilize his strengths more, they just won't be the same team. For one thing, you don't have to double Shaq anymore because he's old and crippled, and so many of the threes taken by the Suns are wide-open in transition. If they slow down the break, all of those dry up. For another thing, changing the team to suit Shaq's skills moves the team away from a style that suits Nash's skills. He is not a spectacular half court point guard. In fact, he's probably not even one of the top 5 point guards in the league in the half court game. He's a full court, fast-breaking point guard, which is why he went from kinda-All-Star to ing ridiculous MVP overnight when he moved from Dallas to Phoenix. Even though that Nellie Ball he was playing in Dallas was still fast-paced, it was nothing like the :07 Second or Less Suns, and his effectiveness reflected that.

As I mentioned before the transition threes have pretty much dried up anyway. Mostly because teams have adjusted to them. The Suns will still take open threes if available but they need more options. Are you saying that Nash can't run a half court offense? How about this for a riddle: How many fast break baskets do the suns have on average and what percentage of their points does that comprise?
I don't think the Suns would be the highest scoring team in the league if they couldn't play the half court offense.

If Phoenix is content to trade their MVP's domination for MAYBE 16 and 7 out of Shaq, then they should go ahead with this trade. But I don't think they've thought through all the "chemistry" issues thoroughly if they think replacing a whiny Marion with ing Shaq is going to actually make their team run more smoothly, either on or off the court.

I don't think you really understand their chemistry issues. Surely not as well as people that are there with the team all the time like the coach and GM and Eddie Johnson are. Eddie Johnson plays poker with the guys on the plane between road games. I think he understands the chemistry of the team better than you.

As for this idiot's specific points, I hear the point that better defensive rebounding could speed up the Suns, but it's not like you're getting a big improvement with Shaq in there: Marion averages 10 rpg this year (8.1 defensive rebounds per game), while Shaq only averages 7.8 rpg this year (4.8 defensive rebounds per game). Last year he averaged only 7.4 with 5 defensive boards. Plus, Marion was fast enough and athletic enough to do what DRob did way back in the day, which is grab a defensive board, outlet, and then run the floor so he could be involved in the finish. Shaq cannot do that. So with Shaq, you're getting a guy who's a worse defensive rebounder and much worse fast break runner,

While it's true that it doesn't take 5 guys to fast break, that's truly a re ed comment to make. Marion was, without a doubt, their best fast break finisher. They have given that away in return for someone who absolutely cannot be a part of the primary break, and might not even be a part of the secondary break. So while the Suns can still possibly fast break because "it doesn't take 5 guys to fast break," their fast break just got a LOT worse because they lost their best fast break finisher and didn't get anyone who can't effect anything except the rebound at the very start of the break. So not only have the Suns picked up a worse defensive rebounder and a much worse fast break runner, they've given up their best fast break finisher too.

No the fast break is not improved by getting rid of Marion but you can't run if you don't have the ball. While Marion was a good rebounder for his size he is not able to keep legitimate centers off the offensive glass and that is probably the single biggest problem the Suns have faced the last few years as I mentioned.

And this is supposed to "improve their running game?" Is this what passes for insightful journalism these days? .

No it will not improve the quality of the running game but it should give them more opportunities.

I agree that they're a more physical team now. BFD. Horry didn't win that series last summer for the Spurs, Timmy D and Amare's ego did. So what if he can't shoulder check Nash for fear of the Big Gorilla's retaliation? And even though Shaq may help clog the paint and make interior scoring more difficult, the next step in his logical chain ignores the fact that the Suns have replaced one of their best jump shooters with a guy who can't make a shot from further than 5 feet out: "That means teams will take more jump shots and the Suns are better at that game than anyone in the league." Is it fair to just assume that the Suns will still be the best in the league at the jump shooting game now that their speed on the break has taken a huge hit and they've lost one of their best jump shooters? Christ, who the decided to give this fool a blog?

Marion was not one of the Suns best jump shooters. He was one of the most inconsistent and unreliable jump shooters on the team. A lot of Marion's points are on offensive rebounds and lob feeds. He can get hot from the corners but I cringe every time he takes a three from the full distance at the top of the 3pt line.

I agree with him that teams will have to change the way they guard Amare on the high pick and roll, which is not going to cause some massive upheaval in the league. So they can't double off of Shaq...so what? They'll double off of Barbosa or Bell, which is just about as bad as doubling off of Marion from a three point perspective, so it's not like teams can't apply the same strategy. They just need to add a minor tweak.

Doubling off the shooters is what the Suns want and Bell and Barbosa are MUCH better percentage outside shooters than Marion.

As one last point, I think Amare might find it a little more difficult to score in the post with a huge blob like Shaq taking up so much space. Before, with Marion out wide, he had lots of room to work and space to use his athleticism to break free of his defender for a dunk. Now he's got to share that space with the basketball equivalent of the anic. And Amare's supposed to become more dominant? WTF?

Yes Amare might have less space to operate in the lane but he could have more opportunities to score because of the attention Shaq will draw under the basket. Amare is a very good finisher around the basket and shooter out to 15ft and Shaq is a very good passer.


I will miss Marion's energy and effort but EJ makes some solid points about how this move will benefit the Suns.

Keep telling yourself this is a bad deal for the Suns and EJ is an idiot for saying otherwise. Time will tell.

[conqueso]

Who ever said he would improve their running game? That would be a stupid thing to say. All I said is they would still be able to run, and despite your long informative reply, I'm still pretty sure they will be able to run.

If your point was merely that they would still be able to run, then it was an inane point. Using that logic, they could trade Barbosa, Amare, and Bell for three old, slow, overweight, injured has-beens, keep Steve Nash, and "still be able to run." Hey, it doesn't take 5 people to run, one person can do it just fine.

But no, I give you more credit than that. You did not make a point so inane. Instead, claiming that "it doesn't take 5 guys to run a fast break," in this context, could only mean that adding Shaq and subtracting Marion will not change the character of the team or prevent them from fast breaking all the time.

My response pointed out that Shaq instead of Marion makes it harder to start the break, harder to continue the break, and harder to finish the break. Now, I'm sure Phoenix will still try to fast break since that's all their players and coach know how to do, but I think that, with Shaq in the game, what once came so easy will now be extremely difficult to execute. The result will be that the Suns will be forced to slow the pace of their offense way down and almost completely abandon 7-seconds-or-less. In other words, I think people (including you) are undervaluing Marion's importance to Phoenix's style of play.

[SAGambler]

And for a guy who can't score at a hight PCT worth a he sure is shooting at a nice PCT....his FG% is 58!%. That would seem to indicate he's still pretty effective around the basket.

Also while only playing in 32 games, he still managed to lead the team in personal fouls. Which tells me the refs aren't letting him get away with bowling people over like they have in the past.

But two of the biggest things I keep seeing is: If he gets healthy and when he is healthy enough to play. I know the med staff has said they can fix him, but it still remains to be seen if in fact they can.

And if they are only planning to get 25 minutes a game out of him, they are paying a of a price for a guy that is pretty slow and only good for half a game.

I look for the Suns to sour on him, like the Bulls have on Big Ben.

[conqueso]

It's not his homerism that bothers me, but instead his inveterate re ation. I also find it unbelievable that people think his points are "logical," when they are anything but.

Nice ad hominem attack.

Oh please. This would only be a valid criticism if I hadn't gone on to provide a 1300 word logical annihilation of his points. If I was basing my argument on the ad hominem, then it would be worth your time pointing out that my response was fallacious. Absent that, you're just diverting attention away from the argument by focusing on a comment that was obviously made for humorous effect.

Here's the deal with Shaq. It would be a stretch for Shaq to play more than 24 mpg for the Suns even when healthy because of all the running, which means they're going to have to rely on Diaw and his $9 million (!) contract and Brian Skinner and his multi-colored goatie for most of the remaining 24 mpg. Marion was averaging 36.5 mpg, so that means an extra 12 minutes per game of either Skinner or Diaw, which should be a terrifying prospect for Suns fans.

False premise. Shaq does not need to run out on the fast break. 5 man fast breaks are rare. There is no problem with him trailing the play. Plus who is to say Diaw or Skinner has to fill in the remaining minutes Marion played? Marion didn't play center anyway so wouldn't other wing players get a big portion of those minutes?

I'm not talking about Shaq running on the fast break; I'm talking about Shaq running at all. When I say that it would be tough for Shaq to play more than 24 minutes "because of all the running," I'm not saying that he would be fast-breaking along with Nash and Amare. The Suns' up tempo game includes more than just the break: they in-bound the ball quickly after every made FG, always push the ball past half court before 21 on the shot, shoot the ball quickly in the half court, and, along with GSW and DEN, have the most possessions per game of any team in the league (average of 96 per game). Even if they didn't fast break once in an entire game, they run at a feverish pace all night. So even if there were no fast breaks for Shaq to participate in, he would still be running far more than he did in Miami, or even in L.A.

Your view on the game and Suns offense is too limited. You fail to consider all the ramifications of playing an up-tempo game, not just the fast break.

And as for Skinner and Diaw, the Suns are 8 deep: the 5 starters, then Barbosa, Diaw and Skinner. Barbosa certainly isn't going to spell Shaq at the 5, and the only players left to do so are Skinner and Diaw. Since Amare can't play 3, and Hill can't play more than ~32-33 per game and stay healthy, Diaw will play more time at the three and Skinner's minutes will increase substantially. Even if Shaq plays 30 per game (which is a HUGE stretch, you must admit), that's still 6 discrepant minutes that someone has to pick up. And whoever it is will clearly be less effective than Marion was in those 6 minutes.

But even when Shaq is in the game, he doesn't make them that much better. Yes, Shaq and Amare create matchup problems for the Spurs and Mavs and Lakers (until Bynum returns). The Rockets--who matchup up very well with them since Yao can Shaq and Scola performed well against Gasol in international play--aren't an elite team with any chance of going deep into the playoffs. But which one is Dirk going to guard? Which one is Duncan going to guard? That's kind of a pick-your-poison deal, since even though Shaq is like 40 years old, he still weighs ten times his age and is still strong as , and banging with him will wear out whoever has to guard him.

Shaq creates space and draws attention on offense and he is a good passer. The Suns space the floor as well as anyone and Shaq helps in that regard.

Agreed.

Here's the thing though: the Suns have two paths they can follow with Shaq. Either they can try to make him fit in with the Suns' system (which is like the ultimate square peg in a round hole as Hollinger pointed out), or they can change the whole way their team approaches the game to accommodate Shaq. With the first option, Shaq will be pretty much useless, since it takes him :07 Seconds or MORE just to run down to the offensive end of the court...the Suns will have already shot the ball by the time his fat ass joins the play.

The Suns have been running much less already this season. They also shoot less t[h]rees in transition than they did in previous years. The Suns "style" is already changing and slowing down before Shaq even gets here. They clearly will lose Marion's leak-outs and steals that get them easy baskets but Hill and Barbosa run very well so I expect the fast break to continue when they have opportunities.

If it takes Shaq more than :07 to get down the floor and the Suns score quicker than that then Shaq is running less than anyone on the team and therefore the concerns about him being not being able to run are moot. If they don't score in :07 then they run a set with Shaq in the half court mix. Where is the conflict here?

I agree that the Suns have slowed things down this year, but they haven't fundamentally changed their style of play. They still play the most up-tempo game of any team in the league, and still try to beat teams by scoring as many points as they possibly can, not by trying to hold the other team to as few points as they possibly can. While they're less reckless than they have been in the past, they are still fundamentally using the same strategy, which is to get the most opportunities to score the most points, and they accomplish this by pushing the ball every possession, fast-breaking whenever they can, and shooting with between 20-12 seconds left on the shot.

Comparing Barbosa and Grant ing Hill's fast-breaking skills with Marion's is absolutely absurd. Barbosa can run the break (as in lead it by dribbling the ball), and Hill can finish okay I guess when he's the third or fourth pass on the break, but neither one of them can lead or finish as well as Marion.

As for the :07, if Shaq doesn't make it down by the time they score, you're right, it's moot. But what if they shoot but don't score in those first few seconds of the possession while Shaq is still trudging his way up the court? With Marion, they had a guy in there who could possibly pull down an offensive board (even though he didn't do that all that often), another guy who the defense had to block out in order to get the defensive rebound. With Shaq slowly trailing and not a part of the play when the shot goes up in seven seconds or less, then there's one less guy to grab an offensive board, one less guy for the defense to worry about (making it harder for Amare or anyone else to grab an offensive board), and one less guy to pester the other team when they get the defensive board and outlet in the back half of the court.

In the other situation when they don't get the shot off in :07 or less, the amount of time it takes for Shaq to get up the court becomes a problem (especially when he's old, out-of-shape, maybe with a nagging little injury, and after he's had to run up and down far more frequently each game than he's ever had to in his career). Phoenix doesn't run an extremely effective half-court offense. Now, it's tough to predict what offense they will eventually end up running in the half-court now that Shaq is in the mix, but it will definitely be a huge break from the style they have always played.

Consider a situation like this: how many times have you seen the Suns make 7 passes in the half-court on one possession, running the clock down to 3 seconds, finding the best open shot to take? The Spurs do this pretty regularly (a couple of times per game), but the Suns hardly ever do it. That's because their discipline and patience in the half-court is not very refined. That's not to say that they couldn't possibly do it, that's just to say that they don't, and there's no reason to believe that they could do it very well. With Shaq in there in the situations you are talking about, that discipline and patience are required for the offense to run effectively, especially since Shaq is no longer so dominant in the post. The Suns have never in the Nash era run an inside-out half-court offense, but Shaq's skill set demands that you run that type of offense. The way the Suns are composed and coached, I don't think this type of offense suits their abilities.

With the second option, the Suns do what everyone has been telling them they need to do to push it to a championship next level: slow the tempo down and commit to defense. No doubt this was Kerr's motivation for trading for Shaq; create matchup problems and slow everything WAY the down. While this is a compelling move that is probably a good strategy generally, you would need to do more than trade Marion for Shaq to mold a team committed to defense. First, you would have to give Amare a brain transplant, since his ego won't allow him to play defense if it won't result in a highlight reel dunk. Second, you would need to just bench Nash, because he's a ty defender to his core. And third and finally, you'd have to fire D'Antoni, because he just couldn't bring himself to grind everything down to a more reasonable, "boring," championship-winning pace.

The Suns biggest problem has generally been offensive rebounding. They give up too many second and third shot opportunities. When Kurt Thomas was collecting defensive rebounds, holding teams to one and done, they are an average to decent defensive team. With Shaq boxing out they should be able to improve the defensive rebounding and they should be able to protect the lane better when he is in there. I don't think the issue is slowing the game down because that clearly happens in the playoffs (or anytime they play the Spurs), it is about executing on both sides of the floor. Executing at a fast or slow pace is just as effective even though the Suns prefer the faster pace because other teams don't and they like to attack before the opponent can set the defense.

I agree with most of this comment, except that part about "executing at a fast or slow pace is just as effective," because the Suns do not execute better at a slow pace, hence why they beat the out of everyone in the league except the teams that either play fast better than they do (e.g. Spurs in '05) or force them to play slow (Spurs in '07).

And with Shaq, it's not just about "slowing the pace down," because you're right, when KT was in the game or during the playoffs, the pace does slow down. With Shaq though, the pace doesn't just slow down, it grinds to a halt, unless the Suns are willing to play 4-on-5 in the :07 or less paradigm. This is a tough thought to describe, but with Shaq in this second option, it's not just like the Suns' usual fundamental style of play is turned down a notch or two, it's like they're playing a completely different fundamental style of play.

But if the Suns do try to play more ugly ball with Shaq to utilize his strengths more, they just won't be the same team. For one thing, you don't have to double Shaq anymore because he's old and crippled, and so many of the threes taken by the Suns are wide-open in transition. If they slow down the break, all of those dry up. For another thing, changing the team to suit Shaq's skills moves the team away from a style that suits Nash's skills. He is not a spectacular half court point guard. In fact, he's probably not even one of the top 5 point guards in the league in the half court game. He's a full court, fast-breaking point guard, which is why he went from kinda-All-Star to ing ridiculous MVP overnight when he moved from Dallas to Phoenix. Even though that Nellie Ball he was playing in Dallas was still fast-paced, it was nothing like the :07 Second or Less Suns, and his effectiveness reflected that.

As I mentioned before the transition threes have pretty much dried up anyway. Mostly because teams have adjusted to them. The Suns will still take open threes if available but they need more options. Are you saying that Nash can't run a half court offense? How about this for a riddle: How many fast break baskets do the suns have on average and what percentage of their points does that comprise?
I don't think the Suns would be the highest scoring team in the league if they couldn't play the half court offense.

I wouldn't say the transition threes have pretty much dried up. They probably don't take as many as Golden State does, but in the games I've seen this season, they still do it, enough to make Spurs fans cringe (since we've all been brainwashed by Pop to view transition threes as evil).

And yes, I'm saying that Nash isn't all that great of a point guard in the half-court offense. Not that he can't run it at all or that he's useless, just that he's not the best point guard in the game when it comes to that facet of being a point guard. In fact, not even top 5 in the league in that category.

And here's the answer to your riddle: The teams with the most fast-break points per game score the most points per game. Take last year for instance. The teams with the top PPG were, in order: Phoenix, Golden State and Denver. The teams with the top fast break PPG were, in order: Golden State, Phoenix, and Denver (see http://www.82games.com/fastbreakpoints.htm). That same year, the Suns outscored the other team 51 out of 64 times when they scored more fast break points than the other team. So it appears as if there is a direct correlation, at least for the Suns, between fast break points and total points.

SHAZAM!!!!

If Phoenix is content to trade their MVP's domination for MAYBE 16 and 7 out of Shaq, then they should go ahead with this trade. But I don't think they've thought through all the "chemistry" issues thoroughly if they think replacing a whiny Marion with ing Shaq is going to actually make their team run more smoothly, either on or off the court.

I don't think you really understand their chemistry issues. Surely not as well as people that are there with the team all the time like the coach and GM and Eddie Johnson are. Eddie Johnson plays poker with the guys on the plane between road games. I think he understands the chemistry of the team better than you.

Since you're so keen on trying to point out my logical "fallacies," here's one for you: appeal to authority. As if Eddie Johnson and the coach and GM are necessarily better able to determine what is better for their chemistry than I am! They certainly have more information, but information is not directly correlated to correctness, especially when it's in the hands of a clearly intellectually inferior journalist, a one-trick-pony coach, and a first year untested and unproven GM.

As for this idiot's specific points, I hear the point that better defensive rebounding could speed up the Suns, but it's not like you're getting a big improvement with Shaq in there: Marion averages 10 rpg this year (8.1 defensive rebounds per game), while Shaq only averages 7.8 rpg this year (4.8 defensive rebounds per game). Last year he averaged only 7.4 with 5 defensive boards. Plus, Marion was fast enough and athletic enough to do what DRob did way back in the day, which is grab a defensive board, outlet, and then run the floor so he could be involved in the finish. Shaq cannot do that. So with Shaq, you're getting a guy who's a worse defensive rebounder and much worse fast break runner,

While it's true that it doesn't take 5 guys to fast break, that's truly a re ed comment to make. Marion was, without a doubt, their best fast break finisher. They have given that away in return for someone who absolutely cannot be a part of the primary break, and might not even be a part of the secondary break. So while the Suns can still possibly fast break because "it doesn't take 5 guys to fast break," their fast break just got a LOT worse because they lost their best fast break finisher and didn't get anyone who can't effect anything except the rebound at the very start of the break. So not only have the Suns picked up a worse defensive rebounder and a much worse fast break runner, they've given up their best fast break finisher too.

No the fast break is not improved by getting rid of Marion but you can't run if you don't have the ball. While Marion was a good rebounder for his size he is not able to keep legitimate centers off the offensive glass and that is probably the single biggest problem the Suns have faced the last few years as I mentioned.

Well, the stats I pulled out show that Shaq is a worse defensive rebounder and a worse overall rebounder than Marion was, while playing for a team where his cohort in the post got fewer rebounds than Amare does. So even if Shaq can keep "legitimate centers" off the offensive glass, Marion doesn't guard centers (for one), Marion is a better defensive rebounder than Shaq statistically (for two), and Marion is a better overall rebounder than Shaq (for three!).

I agree that they're a more physical team now. BFD. Horry didn't win that series last summer for the Spurs, Timmy D and Amare's ego did. So what if he can't shoulder check Nash for fear of the Big Gorilla's retaliation? And even though Shaq may help clog the paint and make interior scoring more difficult, the next step in his logical chain ignores the fact that the Suns have replaced one of their best jump shooters with a guy who can't make a shot from further than 5 feet out: "That means teams will take more jump shots and the Suns are better at that game than anyone in the league." Is it fair to just assume that the Suns will still be the best in the league at the jump shooting game now that their speed on the break has taken a huge hit and they've lost one of their best jump shooters? Christ, who the decided to give this fool a blog?

Marion was not one of the Suns best jump shooters. He was one of the most inconsistent and unreliable jump shooters on the team. A lot of Marion's points are on offensive rebounds and lob feeds. He can get hot from the corners but I cringe every time he takes a three from the full distance at the top of the 3pt line.

Agreed on Marion in part. Go here and select Marion from last season and you can see that he shot .678 around the basket, and took 51% of his total shots from inside 4 feet (547 of 1071). However, to say that he's not a good jump shooter in general is going a little too far. He was 91-199 (.457) from 4-15 feet, which, when compared to Shaq's 19-65 (.292) from 4-15 feet, illustrates the point I was trying to make. I agree that Marion is an inconsistent long-range shooter, but as far as all around jump-shooting, he's not that bad.

I agree with him that teams will have to change the way they guard Amare on the high pick and roll, which is not going to cause some massive upheaval in the league. So they can't double off of Shaq...so what? They'll double off of Barbosa or Bell, which is just about as bad as doubling off of Marion from a three point perspective, so it's not like teams can't apply the same strategy. They just need to add a minor tweak.

Doubling off the shooters is what the Suns want and Bell and Barbosa are MUCH better percentage outside shooters than Marion.

I don't think I made my point clear. Obviously Bell and Barbosa are statistically better 3P shooters than Marion. In the past, teams would double off of Marion on three point line when he was ball-side. Now, they will rotate the double team to Amare, leaving Hill or Barbosa or Bell open, whoever is on the weak side. I see an open weak side Hill/Barbosa/Bell as about as threatening when Amare is rolling to the hoop as an open ball side Marion, especially with a great big Shaq in between Amare and the open shooter. But that's up for debate.

As one last point, I think Amare might find it a little more difficult to score in the post with a huge blob like Shaq taking up so much space. Before, with Marion out wide, he had lots of room to work and space to use his athleticism to break free of his defender for a dunk. Now he's got to share that space with the basketball equivalent of the anic. And Amare's supposed to become more dominant? WTF?

Yes Amare might have less space to operate in the lane but he could have more opportunities to score because of the attention Shaq will draw under the basket. Amare is a very good finisher around the basket and shooter out to 15ft and Shaq is a very good passer.

Regardless of whether Amare is a very good finisher, my argument is specifically commenting on the fact that he might not be able to use his finishing skills (which are predicated on having room to use his athleticism to out-maneuver his defender) when there's a big fat dump in the lane next to him.

And regardless of whether Shaq is a good passer, his passing will be for naught if he can't command a double team, which he really can't anymore.

I will miss Marion's energy and effort but EJ makes some solid points about how this move will benefit the Suns.

Barely any of the points he made were solid, definitely not enough to make his argument correct by a preponderance of the points.

Keep telling yourself this is a bad deal for the Suns and EJ is an idiot for saying otherwise. Time will tell.

Keep telling yourself that your team didn't just make one of the most illogical and ill-conceived trades in the history of the NBA, especially considering how nasty they were with Marion and how Shaq's health is a ticking time bomb. And you're right, only time will tell.

[mathbzh]

I really don't know what to expect from Shaq... He looked old, hurt, not motivated...
But is still able to put 26pt/14rbds on Yao and 20/6 on Howard in two back to back games in november. When motivated he his still effective and now he will be surrounded with great shooters and a dominant inside scorer if he is healthy enough and if the Suns can find some chemistry (2 big if), it could still be very effective.

The suns loss in Marion an inconsistent shooter who can't create is shot and an overrated defender who was almost useless against the Spurs (not even capable of guarding Parker).

A colateral effect of the trade is to make room from Diaw. If he can co back anywhere near the level he played the 2006 PO, The suns will not miss Marion too much.

Only question I have is who will guard Parker? Nash?

[tmtcsc]

....we need a plan....

Here's a plan:

Projected Playoffs -

1.Spurs
2.Lakers
3.Jazz
4.Mavs
5.Hornets
6.Suns
7.Warriors
8.Nuggets


Spurs/Nuggets - Spurs

Mavs/Hornets- Hornets

Spurs/Hornets - Spurs



Lakers/Warriors - Lakers

Jazz/Suns - Jazz

Jazz/Lakers - Jazz

Spurs/Jazz - SPURS (WC Champs)

[mardigan]

If your point was merely that they would still be able to run, then it was an inane point. Using that logic, they could trade Barbosa, Amare, and Bell for three old, slow, overweight, injured has-beens, keep Steve Nash, and "still be able to run." Hey, it doesn't take 5 people to run, one person can do it just fine.

But no, I give you more credit than that. You did not make a point so inane. Instead, claiming that "it doesn't take 5 guys to run a fast break," in this context, could only mean that adding Shaq and subtracting Marion will not change the character of the team or prevent them from fast breaking all the time.

My response pointed out that Shaq instead of Marion makes it harder to start the break, harder to continue the break, and harder to finish the break. Now, I'm sure Phoenix will still try to fast break since that's all their players and coach know how to do, but I think that, with Shaq in the game, what once came so easy will now be extremely difficult to execute. The result will be that the Suns will be forced to slow the pace of their offense way down and almost completely abandon 7-seconds-or-less. In other words, I think people (including you) are undervaluing Marion's importance to Phoenix's style of play.

And I think everyone on this board is overating one of the most overated players in NBA history.

[Rummpd]

Peter D. Rumm MD Said,
February 8, 2008 @ 1:17 pm

So the Spurs have never won back to back championships - big friggin deal, they are still by far the most complete and savy team in the W and can play any style.

They did not repeat in 2000 due only to loss of Duncan and had the sublime 0.4 shot by Fisher. They also had to face Shaq and Kobe together for several years and no one in West as strong as that combo when Shaq was truly Shaq.

Spurs per Burns of SI still the creme of crop in West and the gap may be greater than a lot of analysts think and next year have 13 million coming off cap and add a great defending big man in Tiago Splitter - better for their system than Gasol.

[mavs>spurs2]

Shaq is done.

fat (but down from peak obesity), outta shape, badly foul prone, injury prone, but these clowns make him out to be still the 30PT/12RB Shaq of 2000-2003.

When was Shaq ever obese? When I hear obese, I think of your average 5ft 2 300 pound Mexican woman from San Antonio. Shaq could ideally lose 10-15 pounds to take a load off his knees, but comon the guy's a world class athlete I don't follow on all the "fat" comments.

[conqueso]

And I think everyone on this board is overating one of the most overated players in NBA history.

I have to agree with you that Shawn Marion as a player with his skills is overrated, but I still think his importance to the way the Suns play is extremely undervalued. It's like Steve Nash: I think his skills as a player are very overrated, but his importance to the way the Suns play is immeasurable, but unlike Marion, is universally recognized.

[Cry Havoc]

And I think everyone on this board is overating one of the most overated players in NBA history.

This was the guy you Suns fans were bragging about because you finally found a player on your roster that could guard Tony Parker. I never heard anything about him being so overrated until the day you traded him.

[conqueso]

This was the guy you Suns fans were bragging about because you finally found a player on your roster that could guard Tony Parker. I never heard anything about him being so overrated until the day you traded him.

touché