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50 to 44 obama wins
lol @ the Clinton honk on MSNBC that thinks this debate was a home run for Hillary.
Crack is a uva drug.
50 to 44 obama wins
My two (hundred) cents....
Hillary did deliver her message as a "fighter", but her performance was a mixed bag. At times she looked petty and pissy (re: SNL comment and 16-min healthcare debate), while at other times she drove home the point and looked strong.
Agree with some other posters that she didn't deliver any knockouts, which is a net loss for her.
I actually thought this was Obama's best debate, though I admittedly haven't seen all 20. There were some very pointed and controversial questions directed at him last night and he did well to deflect or answer the majority of them.
He made the most headway in the discussion over foreign policy I think. While Hillary dodged the hypothetical about going back into Iraq if it became a haven for al-Queda, he answered it strongly and directly.
I think that might turn some people off who consider him the "talking" candidate, because it sounded a bit hawkish (suggesting unilateral action in another sovereign " reh"), but at least he took a stand and wasn't dismissive.
IMO, he had three weak moments....
First, the Farrakhan issue, which I think was a minor point. Obama seemed hesitant to reject his support at first, but upon further prodding, he flipped and conseded.
Second and larger snafu, was his position on public financing for the general election. For such a "principled" man, he sure sounded iffy on following through with a promise that he made to accept public financing. You can bet that if he wins the nomination, sits down with McCain, and opts out of the public financing it will be a MAJOR talking point in the general election. His answer inspired zero confidence that he would stand on principle, so I think it was a big hit.
Finally, and I think most importantly....his passive style against a stronger, more vocal opponent can be construed as weakness. There was one instance where he tried to deliver his point but was consistently interrupted by Clinton. Instead of waiting until she was finished then delivering a zinger like "after all that I'm sure we're about to run into another commercial break, but I'd like to make my point", he ended up repeating his first retort line like 5 or 6 times and looking foolish.
If Obama isn't careful, I think two of those three weak points will be exposed and exploited in the general election if he gets the nomination.
Still, I think this was a win for Obama, and though there were no knockout punches, I actually think he made headway in the CinC department.
The only thing I got out of this "debate" were cringe-inducing moments where the mod (Williams?) would play a clip of something one of them said on the campaign trail, then ask them to clarify.
Didnt seem like much of a debate. More like a battle of soundbytes.
Barack was more calm, Hilary attacked Barack on numerous occassions. I liked it when Hilary had a minor quarrel with the fat guy (Tim).
It's amazing how easily she gets to sidestep questions and they mediators don't even ask her the same god damn question AGAIN.
hillary is done
In fairness to Williams, the segment you're referring to was shot from the hip because the production team played the wrong soundbite. He had to generate some kind of conversation while they pulled up the right one.
Also, I think the ramped up rhetoric of the past few days was starkly in contrast to their debate the week before and they were attempting to draw out some of the issues brought up post-CNN debate.
I think it was appropriate that they brought up what she had said about Obama outside of the last debate, as well as the picture flap. Often candidates aren't called out on those sorts of items and I think it's quite relevant to make the audience aware of just what they are willing to do to become the nominee or the officeholder. If a Republican's campaign had circulated that photo right now you'd see them condemned for fearmongering and insensitivity. But a Demo did it so it's kosher.
Obama's done a great job in this campaign letting Hillary expose herself. The Clintons are not going to go away quietly. Maybe they decide to pack it in after disappointing results next Tuesday. Maybe. In 2012, McCain would be 110 years old. But you wouldn't necessarily have the guarantee of the same weak and uncertain economic environment as well as such a disliked in bent administration as you do now. If Obama wins then the Democrat party is his party and the Clintons can no longer lay claim to being the standard bearers of the party. For these reasons, if they are to win, the time is now.
I suspect that Obama will win in TX and Ohio, but the margins will be tight enough that Clinton will be able to justify another 6 weeks of campaigning before the Pennsylvania primary. There is always the possibility that Obama will commit a major gaffe or some nasty revelation will hit his campaign. And hey, what else does she have to do right now?
SHe needs to step aside after March 4th. If she barely wins TX and OH, its going to get very ugly. She'll be angling for the delegates to count in MI & FL. And that will get all kinds of civil right activists up in arms. Not to mention this could go to the floor of the convention and can you say "division"? Mathematically, she can't win unless she wins by enormous margins.
Her personality was a negative last night. She looked hostile during much of the debate and bringing up the "first question" issue was petty and reflected poorly. She needed a "home run" and took a base on balls.
Obama came across as cool and measured. His worse moment was the Farrakan discussion but he likely won't suffer any damage from it.
Suprise, suprise.. Farrakan is supporting the African-American in an election. Next.
I would have loved to see the look on Obama's face when he heard that he had his support.
For some reason I have Hillary taking both Ohio and Texas. Everytime she seems to be dead in the water she always seems to pull out the wins she really needs.
I think there is a good chance she takes both. However, I don't think she can win them as big as it would take to get her the nomination.
Right now on Intrade, there is a good bet going. It's called the Hillary Lifeline. The bet is that she wins Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania. Currently, it's $15 to win $100. It's not a bad bet seeing as how she is leading in most polls in all three states. , the night before the New Hampshire primary, Intrade had Hillary at $5 to win the primary. Someone made good money on that bet.
Actually, the better bet might be Hillary to win Texas. She leads in the polls and is $25 to win.
The scary thing about the Hillary Lifeline bet is that unless she blows out Obama next Tuesday, she is likely to be out of the race by the time Pennsylvania rolls around.
Last edited by Mr. Peabody; 02-28-2008 at 12:13 AM.
Perhaps a more appropriate moniker for that trade is "forestalling the inevitable."
But is a prolonged Democratic primary necessarily a bad thing for Senator Obama's candidacy in the general election? Sure, it would mean that Obama would have to expend time and resources repelling two opponents at the same time, but the attention garnered by the race is a net positive for the Democrats up to this point. McCain is struggling to garner the same level of interest sitting on the sidelines while waiting for his opponent to be determined. In addition, with Obama running against the candidate with the highest negative personal ratings out of the 3 remaining candidates it can't but help him starkly contrast his message of change.
The downside is that she's already taken the gloves off and the claws are out. Sooner or later he may experience more than a few scratches while McCain takes a breather. Plus there is the prospect that the Democratic race snowballs into a negative piss filled cluster with an outcome that ends up disillusioning a significant block of Democratic support. And there is, of course, the off chance that the Clintons figure out a way to steal the nomination. Think about the opportunity lost when that happens. And there stands Senator McCain.
I do think that the longer the primary goes on, the more ardent the supporters of each candidate become and as such, the harder it will be for the eventual nominee to unify the people voting Democratic in the primaries. At this point many of the supporters have been backing their candidate for months and months. It's harder to sever those ties after so much time.
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