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Better hope they didn't peak back in August.
Still 4. The Cubs just refuse to put it away...
I'm not a doomsayer. They will win the division. I just don't want to see them playing like stale ass in the games leading up to the NLDS.
Better hope they didn't peak back in August.
Offensively, I think they did. At one point in August, the Cubs' 6-8 hitters had the highest BA in the majors. I highly doubt that is the case now. This was the secret to their success during that ridiculous hot streak, because Soriano always had runners on for his ABs. Lee was also hitting balls out of the infield at that time. (Strange, but true!)
Defensively, the Cubs are average to mediocre. No real change there. It's only cost them two games so far this year, so I think we can ignore it. It's amazing that Zambrano was able to pitch a no-hitter. Before Uncle Lou trotted out the defensive replacements, Z was working with one of the most limited middle infield combinations in MLB.
The starting pitching staff is the balls, and they are the one aspect of this team that doesn't bother me. Dempster needs to skip a start soon, but that is the only real concern I have.
The bullpen does not have a single LH reliever who can actually get LH batters out. (The only Cubs worth a damn against lefties are Wood, Marmol, and Samadzija.) Piniella keeps trotting Neal Cotts out there for reasons known only to him. I suspect Piniella is hoping that Cotts will turn it around, but other than his one good year with the 2005 White Sox, Cotts really sucks. The Cubs could have clinched already if Piniella wasn't so damn determined to let Cotts and Howry work it out on the mound. Piniella believes in velocity in the postseason, and these two throw hard. I suspect a connection, which scares the out of me. I'd rather see Marquis on the postseason roster at this point.
What were you saying?
What were you saying?
I guess I'm saying that the odds are looking good that the Cubs will clinch on an off day, if you take my meaning.
EDIT: I just checked the box scores. I had assumed they lost this afternoon. Magic number is now 2 after a miraculous comeback/Brewer meltdown.
Last edited by Reggie Miller; 09-18-2008 at 07:31 PM.
I was watching the whole thing. Started to fall asleep in the 8th, started to slowly wake up in the bottom of the 9th. We got two runners on and suddenly I was alert. Then Soto walked up, and BOOM. Amazing.
Amazing game.
A Philadelphia loss or Chicago win tonight clinches homefield advantage for the NLCS.
Cubs clinch National League; the difference was a Marquis grand slam.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/recap?gameId=280922121
Yes Yes Yes!
Marquis, you magnificent bas ... I READ YOUR BOOK!!!!
My best guess at Sweet Lou's Playoff Roster*:
1 C Geovany Soto
2 C Henry Blanco
3 1B Derek Lee
4 1B/OF Daryle Ward
5 2B/OF Mark DeRosa
6 2B Mike Fontenot
7 SS Ryan Theriot
8 SS Ronny Cedeno
9 3B Aramis Ramirez
10 OF Alfonso Soriano
11 OF Jim Edmonds
12 OF Reed Johnson
13 OF Felix Pie
14 OF Kosuke Fukudome
15 SP Carlos Zambrano
16 SP Ryan Dempster
17 SP Rich Harden
18 SP/RP Ted Lilly
19 SP/RP Jason Marquis
20 RP Carlos Marmol
21 RP Jeff Samardzija
22 RP Kerry Wood
23 RP Sean Marshall
24 RP Neal Cotts
25 RP Chad Gaudin
Lou's Projected Starting Rotation:
1 RH Zambrano
2 RH Dempster
3 RH Harden
4 LH Lilly
* This is not my ideal roster, but Piniella has alreday said he is carrying 14 hitters and 11 pitchers.
This is the Reggie Miller Solution:
Batting Order =
1 Sorry, Ano (LF)
2 Little Babe Ruth (2B)
3 E-Ramis (3B)
4 DP Lee (1B)
5 Jimmy Ballgame (CF)
6 Super Mario (C)
7 Marky Mark (RF)
8 Dance Fever a.k.a. "The Riot" (SS)
9 Pitcher
My real ideal lineup would have Soriano batting third, but he historically doesn't produce in that spot. I dropped Theriot into #8 as a second lead-off hitter. He has zero power, and Fontenot would have this opportunity to duplicate what he did from April to August.
Otherwise, I would then revert to Lou's "normal" lineup with DeRosa at 2B. I would then consider playing Delicious Pie over F.U. Dome. Felix Pie is a waste in the corners, so the outfield would be: Soriano (LF), Pie (CF), and whoever has the best record against the scheduled starter in RF. Pie then becomes the secondary lead-off hitter in the #8 spot.
All of this highlights the Cubs' weaknesses. The Cubs do not have a single utility player. The closest thing they have is Mark DeRosa, who needs to start, despite some slumping this month. Thank God, DeRosa doesn't seem to mind moving around the field. Soriano should be hitting lower in the order, but when you move him there, he bats like a lead-off hitter. (Go figure.) Lee is starting to come out of his power shortage just in time, but he has been a major liability for long stretches since the All-Star break. The Cubs do not have nearly enough LH bats, so you are forced to rely on the streaky, declining version of Jim Edmonds. The Cubs only have two people capable of playing shortstop. Theriot can't field, and Cedeno can't hit. They are roughly equal in that both can be relied upon to run the bases like complete spazzes.
My rotation would be:
1. Zambrano
2. Dempster
3. Harden
In a five game series, this guarantees the Dumpster two starts at Wrigley, if necessary. I trust Zambrano more at home as well. Harden, who actually has the best stats, could pitch in both Game 3 & 5 on normal rest if necessary. This gives you the option of using Lilly as your frontline LH reliever, which would make me feel a lot better than relying on the other options.
EDIT: Either "no-hit" Zambrano will show, or the version that serves up BP. Dempster and Harden can beat anyone else's #2 and #3 starter. I'd rather send Zambrano against the other team's #1 no matter what.
Last edited by Reggie Miller; 09-24-2008 at 11:16 PM.
Looks like Lou is going with:
1. Dempster
2. Lilly
3. Harden
4. Zambrano
I think Lou is being a little too traditional here by insisting on starting a lefty.
Cubs' Pitching v. LHB
Opponent BA, Opponent OBP, Opponent SLG, OPS Against
Dempster = .243 / .309 / .381 / .691
Lilly = .307 / .387 / .545 / .932
Harden = .200 / .294 / .300 / .594
Zambrano = .235 / .328 / .346 / .675
To be fair, Lilly's numbers after the All-Star break are significantly better. (Lilly had the three worst starts of his career in April.)
Right now, I would have to more or less agree with the rotation, except I would prefer to use Lilly and Marquis in the bullpen, just for the NLDS. You cannot take starts away from either Dempster or Harden in a short series.
I think it's a good rotation. I don't think it's because he's a lefty, it's because Lilly has been hot of late and put together a solid season overall.
Plus, none of the Cubs guys have shown the ability to pitch on 3 days rest. With Harden's fragility, I'm not sure you'd want to trot him out there on short rest. Zambrano's so streaky right now that's it's probably best to keep him on normal rest. And Dempster on 3 days rest would put his 2nd start on the road, where's he's been closer to mortal (although still better than his 3-3 away record would indicate). Lilly has actually been pretty good himself on the road this year (3.83 w/ a 9-4 record and a strikeout per inning).
You are correct, but you forgot that the Cubs will draw the schedule with that extra (inexplicable) day of rest. Even in a three-man rotation, no one would have to go on short rest.
However, there is no way you can start any of the Cubs starters on short rest. Harden's arm would fall off. Dempster hasn't thrown this many innings since the fall of the Berlin Wall. Zambrano is too flaky. No one has ever tried it before with Lilly, to my knowledge.
It may still be a better idea to try the four-man rotation with all of the above in mind.
Milwaukee wins final game of the season against the Cubs, 3-1.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/recap?...eo&hcmp=motion
Personally, I wanted the Mets in the first round.
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