Toronto Pick Watch (Top 6 protected)

[TD 21]

The Raptors have 17 and 31 in addition to having a chance at a top-10 pick. They have plenty of fliers and the cap flexibility to get more during the draft if they want to. The prioritizing of Olynyk suggests Toronto values this season, both potentially as a playoff year if everything works out and as an opportunity to see how Barnes looks as a higher option, how Quickley and Barrett fit in with good spacing and how the younger guys on the team handle higher rotation spots. They've needed competent center play for years now, and Olynyk can help them there in a similar way that an MLE-level vet PG would've had utility on the Spurs even in this lost season. Then as far as fliers go, Agbaji just seems like a guy they like. He doesn't have to have superstar upside to be a decent pick. He might be able to fit next to Barnes and Quickley, or maybe he shows himself to be a valuable role-player and gets traded for picks later on.

I don't think your PoV is that hard to get, but I also think you're being a bit blinded by your Raptors hate if you can't understand the logic here. I get disagreeing with it, but I'd've been okay with the Spurs dumping one of their middle-draft picks for guys they actually wanted during the prior deadline rather than keeping the picks into the draft and then selling them off for cash because they realize they actually don't want four or more rookies on their roster.

You can never have too many fliers, especially in the position they've put themselves in.

I understand the logic, it just doesn't make sense for them.

The Spurs just drafted one of the GOAT prospects, have the lowest amount of shot creation in the league and quality/quan y of draft capital.

[Chinook]

You can never have too many fliers, especially in the position they've put themselves in.

I mean, of course you can. You only have so many roster spots. You mentioned the things the Raptors could do with the pick, but we've seen the reality of having that many picks is usually the team selling the picks for pennies on the dollar during the draft.

I understand the logic, it just doesn't make sense for them.

You're free to think that, but I think the Raptors could make the argument for their side without it seeming particularly crazy. Either way, it's inconsequential. Even if there is an impact player taken with that pick, Toronto would've have ample opportunity to select or trade up to acquire such a player. I wouldn't want the difference between the OKC first and 31 to stop Wright from making a trade if he thought it would help the team.

The Spurs just drafted one of the GOAT prospects, have the lowest amount of shot creation in the league and quality/quan y of draft capital.

Toronto has a lot of capital, especially this year. They needed a second center more than the Spurs need another PG. Regardless, I would've felt in a similar way in the previous years too, especially if I had known that the alternative was the Spurs kicking the can down the road or just selling the pick off to give the Holts some spending money.

In fact, the Spurs have three or four picks in this draft right now. I think there's a good chance the Spurs get less out of that pick than a vet rotation player and a decent prospect. Like I'm sort of sad they didn't try for Royce O'Neal, even if it were going to be difficult to re-sign him. Just having a quality defender could've done a lot to stabilize the rotation for the rest of the year, and having Royce's Bird rights would've made it much more possible to pivot toward a win-now stance after making a big trade for Young, Mitc or whomever else. That was worth 33 and a couple of throw-away seconds.

[TD 21]

I mean, of course you can. You only have so many roster spots. You mentioned the things the Raptors could do with the pick, but we've seen the reality of having that many picks is usually the team selling the picks for pennies on the dollar during the draft.



You're free to think that, but I think the Raptors could make the argument for their side without it seeming particularly crazy. Either way, it's inconsequential. Even if there is an impact player taken with that pick, Toronto would've have ample opportunity to select or trade up to acquire such a player. I wouldn't want the difference between the OKC first and 31 to stop Wright from making a trade if he thought it would help the team.



Toronto has a lot of capital, especially this year. They needed a second center more than the Spurs need another PG. Regardless, I would've felt in a similar way in the previous years too, especially if I had known that the alternative was the Spurs kicking the can down the road or just selling the pick off to give the Holts some spending money.

In fact, the Spurs have three or four picks in this draft right now. I think there's a good chance the Spurs get less out of that pick than a vet rotation player and a decent prospect. Like I'm sort of sad they didn't try for Royce O'Neal, even if it were going to be difficult to re-sign him. Just having a quality defender could've done a lot to stabilize the rotation for the rest of the year, and having Royce's Bird rights would've made it much more possible to pivot toward a win-now stance after making a big trade for Young, Mitc or whomever else. That was worth 33 and a couple of throw-away seconds.

I mentioned alternate options (another is trading them for future picks). Why did a team in their position need to expedite this?

Virtually any team in any trade could rationalize it and again, the Spurs are in a much different position. As ever, context is imperative.

No, they don't and what they do have is low quality which is why trading a lottery ticket for relatively low ceiling is shortsighted. Needs are relative. Sign some backup off the scrap heap or promote some G-Leaguer to end the season.

Again, if the Bulls, Pistons, etc. do this, they're getting killed. They do it and unprofessional people like Lowe are defending it on their podcasts. They have enough of their buddies doing that in the national media, not sure why you feel compelled to join the fray.

[Mr. Body]

WTF is this lottery ticket you keep talking about???

Christ, this is pretty simple. Toronto is in a soft rebuild. The rebuild is around Scottie Barnes, who is now an All-Star.

They had to rebuild because Anunoby and Siakam were due tons of money this year and it just wasn't working. They moved each. Maybe too late, but that's not the issue here.

In dealing Siakam, they got two FRPs for 2024. They already have Detroit's second round pick, which right now is #31. They might get their lottery pick if it falls between 1-6.

THEY DO NOT NEED FOUR DRAFT PICKS.

What's clear is Toronto does not want to tear it down for a full rebuild. They've never wanted this. It's just not how Masai works. What seems clear is they might rather give up the pick they owe for Poeltl this year and just be done with it, especially as it's a bad draft.

Now, as for trading this pick, which is OKC's pick. It's #27, a pick that is a stretch to become a good player. They ALREADY HAVE a much better #17 pick (Indiana), that #31, which can be moved up, traded out, whatever, but is as good as you can get as a SRP. AND they may have their lotto pick.

It is CLEAR they are much better, at least somewhat compe ive, with a good center on the court. This means Poeltl. Olynyk is a pretty good backup center who can also give them different looks than Jakob does. Ochai is a decent rotation guy who may improve in a new situation. Even if he doesn't, he gives them a floor-spacer, which they badly need, especially as Gary Trent is probably on his way out.

To me, to nearly everybody, this is a pretty good use for a late draft pick in a bad draft where they already have two guaranteed picks and maybe three. They get two floor-spacers who help open up the middle for Barnes to operate. And this doesn't even account for roster spots. They're not going to take on four rookies.

I can't believe I typed this out. I actually like what the Raptors have done this year. Best for them to move the Poeltl pick out and keep getting better in the next few years.

[spurraider21]

WTF is this lottery ticket you keep talking about???

lottery ticket is basically a late draft flier. like a real life lottery ticket, you know its probably not a winner. but if it doesnt work out, you dont really care too much because the opportunity cost wasnt great. its not like blowing a top 3 pick that you committed years of development into. its not a free agent you spend 50 million on over 3 years.

theyre cheap dart throws that might become a gobert, a jokic. or even if not quite that good, could become a derrick white.

the "lottery ticket" expression shouldnt be confused with "draft lottery" in that its not measuring the likelihood of that draft pick becoming a top 3 or top 5 pick, but rather measuring the likelihood of the late draft flier panning out

[Mr. Body]

Again, what the are you talking about. Christ this thread went completely stupid.

[spurraider21]

Again, what the are you talking about. Christ this thread went completely stupid.

i can explain it to you, but i cant understand it for you.

[TD 21]

The Craptors are basically a variation of the post S bag Spurs. Striving to be a treadmill team, with a likely complementary star as their centerpiece and no other above average starters and somehow this is being praised.

The point that inexplicably keeps getting lost is, I don't have a problem with the trade conceptually so much as contextually.

[scott]

Great analogy TD 21. Eventually TOR will realize where they are, and go into a full rebuild, several years after they should have, by trading away Scottie and going hard tank. In some sense, it may be in their interest to have the pick due the Spurs convey this year just to get it over with so the can proceed with tanking unen bered.

[TXstbobcat]

Raptors taking down the Rockets tonight. Up 20.

[rascal]

Portland Memphis and Toronto in any order for 5, 6 and 7. It's going to be close in the end.

[Spurs Homer]

Raptors taking down the Rockets tonight. Up 20.

rockets only down 4
25 secs left in game

raptors trying to give it away lol

[Mr. Body]

Rockets are now 5-19 away. Toronto tried to choke that one, though. I believe they have a full game on Memphis now and are a game behind Brooklyn.

[Chinook]

I mentioned alternate options (another is trading them for future picks). Why did a team in their position need to expedite this?

The point that I'm making is that even though those alternatives seem like they're reliably going to be there, it tends not to work out during actual drafts. A team may not want to give them a future first for 28, and if we're talking about seconds and cash, it's not hard at all to see why they'd prefer the route they went. What do you mean "expedite"? Quickley is expiring and Barnes is in his swing year. This is an important stretch of games to set the groundwork for what the 2024-2025 Raptors will be.

No, they don't and what they do have is low quality which is why trading a lottery ticket for relatively low ceiling is shortsighted. Needs are relative. Sign some backup off the scrap heap or promote some G-Leaguer to end the season.

They do have a fair bit of draft capital, and this year is a key example of that. I'm not Bod -- I get what you mean by a lotto pick, but you're overrating the importance of it. The Raptors will have their chances to get a middle-draft pick by taking on money this summer. So if they can trade a ticket for players they consider useful now while keeping the option open to buy a third or fourth pick from a team like SA later, where is the opportunity cost?

Virtually any team in any trade could rationalize it and again, the Spurs are in a much different position. As ever, context is imperative.

The point is that it's easy to rationalize it. I can't make you agree, but rather than trying to use the lack of criticism to point to some systemic bias toward Toronto, it might be a sign that the trade is not that strange. As I've pointed out, I haven't been against making low-cost moves for key vets at any point in this process. Maybe the Spurs have always had some special context. But you're much more likely to catch mean thinking they aren't being aggressive enough in adding talent than me wanting them to be more conservative.

Again, if the Bulls, Pistons, etc. do this, they're getting killed. They do it and unprofessional people like Lowe are defending it on their podcasts. They have enough of their buddies doing that in the national media, not sure why you feel compelled to join the fray.

Funnily enough, the Pistons did make a similar trade when they acquired Simone Fontecchio for the projected 34th-overall pick this year. It turns out that it's not really a big deal. Would Chicago get criticized for trading a pick they don't have for a win-now player in a season in which their best player is already out for the season? Yes. Because the context is different.

The Craptors are basically a variation of the post S bag Spurs. Striving to be a treadmill team, with a likely complementary star as their centerpiece and no other above average starters and somehow this is being praised.

The point that inexplicably keeps getting lost is, I don't have a problem with the trade conceptually so much as contextually.

It might seem weird to some folks here, but the Spurs are fine. Basically every team that "waits too long" or "tries to stay on the treadmill" ends up being fine. The Sixers were a treadmill team before Hinkie. The Grizzlies couldn't let go of their old Grit 'n' Grind players. Dallas kept trying to get juice from the Dirk fruit long past when it became futile. If the Raptors are the DeRozan-era Spurs, then they'll be fine too. Maybe that means in three or four years they get a bunch of unprotected picks for Barnes and some more for Quickley and Barrett. Maybe they figure out how to make it work like Miami did around Bam. Even if they eventually have to tank, the only difference will be that fans with certain values will have felt like previous years were somehow wasted.

I'm actually not a huge fan of most of the moves Ujuri makes, so I will resist the accusation that I'm actually defending them. But I don't actually have any hard feelings concerning the Raptors, who at this point have given SA a decent haul in trades. Ujuri has huge blind spots for African or Africa-adjacent players which causes him to fetishize low-EROI prospects, with Agbaji potentially being just another such attempt. I didn't really have Quickley as a important player to get, so I think acquiring him for OG was a sub-optimal deal. I think Wright's been styling on him for a couple of years now too. But I will speak for moves that he makes that align with moves I wish the Spurs would make As I said, I would've liked the team to use the Charlotte pick to bring in a rotation player or have been in the O'Neal bidding. I can't fault a GM who uses a superfluous asset get two guys he thinks will be good for his team.

[Ariel]

Given the recent trades at the deadline, I believe the landscape is much clearer:
1-4: Washington (9), Charlotte (10), SA (10), Detroit (8). I wouldn't be at all surprised if Detroit ends up with the better record out of this bunch.
5: Portland (15) Even if they tank, I don't think it'd be enough to get into the bottom 4 or surpass Memphis or Brooklyn
6-7: Memphis (18), Brooklyn (20) Got weakened, but not enough to end up 5 or below
8: Toronto (19) I don't see how they don't hold off Memphis and surpass Brooklyn
9-13: Utah (26), Houston (23), Atlanta (23), Chicago (25), GSW (24). I think Utah wants to keep their pick (top 10 protected) so I wouldn't be surprised if they end up 9/10.

All in all, I think the Spurs end up with a bottom 3 record and Toronto ends up 8th, so the Spurs should get both picks.
I believe a PG will be available at Toronto's pick, my targets are Dillingham and Topic, so I'd wait until then to pick one unless the Spurs own pick ends up 5-7 (then pick whomever is higher on your board).
With the Spurs own pick, assuming top 4, I'd target Sarr (best combination of physical tools and talent, floor and upside) or Cody Williams (raw but potential to be an archetypical do it all wing, those are taken high).
So if we come away with Sarr/Cody Williams + Dillingham/Topic I'll be pretty satisfied.

[mudyez]

So all in all it looks pretty nice, doesn't it? It could land in a swet 7/8th spot this year and if it rolls over, they probably are not in full tank mode and we get a bite on the apple in a (maybe) better draft.

[JPB]

Sarr was considered a potential #1 pick not so long ago, before he got injured and could be gone after 3... The question about Sarr is if you play him next to Vic as a 4, or 5 indifferently, or use him mainly as your back up C. Can you play the two together? Do you prefer an enforcer to pair with Victor (Sarr is more of skilled big with a nice touch, although stronger than Wemby)?

And do you want to find your starting PG in this draft, and then wait for a few years for him to develop or trade for a veteran (Trae (not a fan at all), Murray...) who brings talent, order to help Wemby and put everyone to their place. Do you still go for a PG as your back up (with a vet PG who can play the two) for his rookie years before he takes over the reigns? Or do you just take BPA if you believe Risacher or another is that guy?

No matter what TOR's pick is obviously determinant regarding your strategy in the next draft, as well as who you see as BPA (Sarr, Risacher, Dillon, Topic, Dillingham...). that's a 3 factor equation: BPA, PG, big.

[CGD]

^ didn’t realize he got injured. Pretty much every mock still has Sarr at 1. It would be a poor use of a top 3 pick given we already have Vic. I don’t buy his percentages from 3 as sustainable.

[Dejounte]

Sarr is not even a “skilled big”. This thread says it all:

https://www.reddit.com/r/NBA_Draft/s/khFiavZqIW

Folks who have Sarr high on their board only have him high because they’re regurgitating/ using an aggregation of all media boards tbh.

[Dejounte]

^ didn’t realize he got injured. Pretty much every mock still has Sarr at 1. It would be a poor use of a top 3 pick given we already have Vic. I don’t buy his percentages from 3 as sustainable.

Sarr’s shooting ability and tendencies match Nic Claxton’s. Same numbers from all over the court. This idea that he’ll develop into a shooter that allows him to become a 4 is wishful thinking. And the Spurs shouldn’t draft a backup 5 with their top pick.

[Chinook]

I think as he develops, Wemby will be able to play PF at a high level. Some posters think that Wemby being a good center now means he's skipped over the bulking years it was presumed he'd need to survive there. The jury's still out on how well his body will hold up there on a star workload, but what gets overlooked is that his skill-set and understanding of the game will also improve over time to allow him to find his place on the floor with a number of different lineups. I don't have a substantial opinion about Sarr, and I do hope the Spurs draft one or two obvious rotation pieces in June. But I think we should be open to the idea that the "talent around Victor" may come in a variety of forms. For example, I think Wemby and Adebayo could actually fit well together once Victor develops a bit more. Those are two guys who can both run the PnR, catch lobs and face up. Bam needs to work on his outside shooting a bit more, but it would be a situation that would play to both of their strengths.

Collins was a uniquely bad fit next to Wemby, especially once you add in Zach's performance in general. Victor is not LMA -- he doesn't need a bunch of space to work in while everyone else stands around. He needs movement to keep guys from setting their defense. A fast dunk threat was always a better fit than a floor-spacer, and once you factor in Victor's passing ability, given him a rim-runner to feet just makes sense. The better he gets and making use of his possessions without turning it over or taking a bad shot, the more the team around him can involve finishers rather than creators. I don't know that Sarr would be a fit, but drafting a center high over the next couple of years still makes sense. The Spurs need a legit backup, and that player would still have a larger role available to them if they develop the right way. I'd be more inclined to downgrade the need at PF than C in terms of a draft board, though I think all positions should be considered open for drafting.

[Ariel]

Sarr is not even a “skilled big”. This thread says it all:

https://www.reddit.com/r/NBA_Draft/s/khFiavZqIW

Folks who have Sarr high on their board only have him high because they’re regurgitating/ using an aggregation of all media boards tbh.

You mean, as opposed to this never before seen board:

Spurs-centric Big Board (accounts for needs)
Tier 1
-Collier
-Topic
-Dillingham

Tier 2
-Buzelis
-Cody

Tier 3
-Risacher
-Holland

Tier 4
-Reed
-Walter

…everybody else

And regurgitating a reddit thread that says basically nothing interesting?

[Big Empty]

Spurs either taking Topic (6’7) or Matas Buzellis (6’’10) . Two taller g/f that can shoot. Bank on it

[sfernald]

Sarr is a lock for #1. He’s back from injury and killing it. Just pencil him in now.
An ideal draft for Spurs would be to get the best point guard and best small forward in the draft.

I don’t know who that is yet but I would be comfortable with one of Cody/Rish/Buz/Holl and one of Top/Shep/Dill/Cas depending on who the spurs have at the very top of their board.

If I had my druthers I think I want shooting around Wemby so I would want Rish and Shep cause those two are among the best shooters in this draft.

Overall I think this is gonna be a great draft for the spurs.

[baseline bum]

Sarr is not even a “skilled big”. This thread says it all:

https://www.reddit.com/r/NBA_Draft/s/khFiavZqIW

Folks who have Sarr high on their board only have him high because they’re regurgitating/ using an aggregation of all media boards tbh.

Can't teach size and athleticism. Sarr wouldn't go #1 in a normal draft but this isn't a very good one. Amen Thompson would have probably gone #1 if he was in this draft.