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I hope they tough it out then. This is absolute madness. When was the last CAT 5 that hit texas? Carla? That destroyed houses in victoria due to trees falling down and victoria didnt even get a direct hit or anything
Hurricane Rita Advisory Number 18
Statement as of 10:00 PM CDT on September 21, 2005
...Category five Rita continuing to strengthen over the central
Gulf of Mexico...
a Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Gulf of Mexico coast
from Port Mansfield Texas to Cameron Louisiana. A Hurricane Warning
may be required for portions of the Hurricane Watch area Thursday
morning.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect on either side of the
Hurricane Watch area... from east of Cameron to Grand Isle
Louisiana... and from south of Port Mansfield to Brownsville Texas.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the northeastern coast
of Mexico from Rio San Fernando northward to the Rio Grande.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area...generally within 36 hours. A tropical storm
watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area...generally within 36 hours.
Interests in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the
progress of potentially catastrophic Hurricane Rita.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 10 PM CDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Rita was located near
la ude 24.6 north... longitude 87.2 west or about 570 miles...
915 km... east-southeast of Galveston Texas and about 670 miles...
1080 km...east-southeast of Corpus Christi Texas.
Rita is moving toward the west near 9 mph ...15 km/hr...and this
general motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected
during the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 175 mph...280 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Rita is a potentially catastrophic category five hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 185 miles...295 km.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 897 mb...26.49 inches.
This means Rita is the third most intense hurricane in terms of
pressure in the Atlantic Basin.
Tides are currently running near normal along the Mississippi and
Louisiana coasts in the areas affected by Katrina. Tides in those
areas will increase up to 3 to 4 feet and be accompanied by large
waves over the next 24 hours... and residents there could
experience some coastal flooding.
Heavy rains associated with Rita are forecast to begin to affect the
western and central Gulf of Mexico coastal areas Thursday night
into Friday. Rita is expected to produce total rainfall
ac ulations of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
15 inches over the central to Upper Texas coast. Rainfall amounts
of 2 to 24 inches will be possible across southern Louisiana...
including the New Orleans metropolitan area. After Rita moves
inland...total rain ac ulations of 5 to 10 inches will be
possible over eastern Texas... and central and eastern Oklahoma
during Saturday and Sunday.
Repeating the 10 PM CDT position...24.6 N... 87.2 W. Movement
toward...west near 9 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...175 mph. Minimum central pressure... 897 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 1 am CDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 4 am CDT.
Forecaster Stewart
I hope they tough it out then. This is absolute madness. When was the last CAT 5 that hit texas? Carla? That destroyed houses in victoria due to trees falling down and victoria didnt even get a direct hit or anything
The traffic is horrible here, well in Kenedy and that is a small ass town but its 181.My mom left Vic. 30 min's ago.
I'm not expecting her to show up here for hours seeing as how he traffic is so bad.
But she has to turn right around and go back to get the rest of the fam..... just driving is gonna take FOREVER.
Meanwhile I havn;t been able to get thru to my BF Randi alllll day. And I've tried calling like 100 times.
the plan was that they would leave Clute around 6pm.
I guess I'll find out when/if they get here.
I hate saying this, but I hope it lands north of Corpus. My dad, one of my uncles, and all my stoner friends refuse to leave. I know it's projected to hit north of Corpus but with these damn things, one can never be too sure. All my bas family and friends have made me worried. They've driven me to drinking.
My grandparents said the highway from Conroe - Houston, usually takes like an hour max, will take up to 3 hours if not more.
Rita now at 175mph winds
This thread needs some eye candy...
Stephanie Abrams, The Weather Channel.
j6...
The only other suggestion I'd have to that is to go 6 north towards Waco, then take Highway 14 when she gets to Calvert and just follow it up all the way into Corsicana.
14 parallels 45, but it will help skip the construction out on 45 that is a pain in the ass (and will be a major bottleneck - one lane for 10 miles!).
She'll have to pick up 45 in Corsicana, but it will skip the bottleneck.
If she goes up to I35 from 6, that whole stretch from Waco until you hit the split in Hillsboro (I35 splits to go to Ft. Worth and Dallas) completely sucks.
When she gets into Southeast Dallas on 45, tell her to take off on I-30 and head west to Ft. Worth. 30 will be a little congested at the area where it intersects 75 and 35 in Dallas, as well as when she gets into Ft. Worth, but that's really about the only alternative I know of.
yeah.. Carla whipped out a bunch of houses... AND that little square down town between 1st Victoria and Wells Fargo and the Courthouse... I have a postcard with a pic of he damage....
AHF, the guys in Masters Blog were all over Stephanie tonight...kinda funny that you mentioned her.
The track has shifted back to Houston. This one is giving them fits.
Come on, everyone knew it was going to Houston. God is trying to finish the job after New Orleans
Possible 30 inches in rain for Dallas. me, time to buy a boat.
Updated track...
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That could change tomorrow though.Updated track...
My neighbor has 3 daughters... Krista, Katrina and Rita. lol I didn't even think of that until today... those girls are always causing trouble. haha
Duuuuuuuuuude, were you even paying attention to the picture?
Yes, I know but i'm talking seriously. I can obviously see there is a Margarita on there.Duuuuuuuuuude, were you even paying attention to the picture?
Who says I'm not? Just trying to bring some humor to the thread. We've got two days before everything is going to , might as well enjoy it.
Hurricane Rita Discussion Number 18
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 21, 2005
Rita has continued to strengthen since the last advisory. A
dropsonde in the eye of Rita around 21/2309z recorded a pressure of
899 mb with a surface wind of 32 kt. Anything below 10 kt is
usually considered a valid pressure. However...the general thumb
rule is to decrease the pressure 1 mb for every 10 kt above that
wind speed. In this case... Rita's central pressure is estimated to
be 897 mb...making it the third most intense hurricane in terms of
pressure for the Atlantic Basin. The last recon pass only indicated
2 reports of 700 mb flight-level winds of 157 kt in the northeast
quadrant. However... ODT values over the past 2 hours have averaged
between t7.3/149 kt and t7.4/152 kt... so the initial intensity has
been increased to 150 kt. The pressure-wind relationship for an 897
mb pressure is 160 kt.
The initial motion estimate is 280/08. Rita has actually made a
large wobble and slowed to a 285/06 kt motion the past 6 hours.
However...such motion changes...which are not unusual for
explosively deepening tropical cyclones as the inner core wind
field and convective pattern reorganizes...are considered temporary
and Rita is expected to shortly resume a more westward motion. The
18z NHC model guidance is a little more convergent than previous
model runs... with the GFS and GFDL models doing their usual
afternoon eastward shift. Those models now bring Rita across the
Houston-Galveston area in about 72 hours. However...the other
models seem to have stabilized their forecast tracks farther west
with the consensus having shifted a little more to the right. The
official forecast track was also shifted to the right...but not as
far as the GFS/GFDL models...since it now appears that the global
models have a reasonable handle on weakening the mid-level ridge
across Texas and the Gulf Coast based 22/00z upper-air data
indicating 40 meter height falls across this region during the past
24 hours.
The intensity forecast is somewhat problematic. The upper-level
outflow pattern is perfect with a poleward outflow channel
converging into an upper-low northeast of the Lesser Antilles... an
equatorward outflow channel converging into an upper-low over the
Bay of Campeche...and a third weak outflow channel developing to
the northwest. This extremely favorable pattern...combined with
30-31c SSTs...has allowed Rita's explosive deepening to occur. The
eye will be passing over the warm Gulf loop current during the next
12 hours...so some additional strengthening is possible... if an
eyewall replacement cycle does not inhibit the intensification
process. By 36-48 hours...the global models are in good agreement
that the current three outflow channel pattern will be replaced by
mainly a large poleward outflow pattern. This should induce some
steady weakening...but that type of outflow pattern...coupled with
expected low vertical shear conditions...is still sufficient to
support a category 4 hurricane until landfall occurs. Of course...
internal dynamics also play a role in what the intensity of a
hurricane will be... and we have no skill in forecasting eyewall
replacement cycles beyond about 6-12 hours...at best. The intensity
forecast is similar to the trend of the SHIPS model...only slightly
higher after 24 hours due to lower vertical shear indicated by the
NOGAPS...Canadian...UKMET...and ECMWF models.
Forecaster Stewart
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 22/0300z 24.6n 87.2w 150 kt
12hr VT 22/1200z 24.9n 88.7w 155 kt
24hr VT 23/0000z 25.5n 90.5w 150 kt
36hr VT 23/1200z 26.3n 92.4w 145 kt
48hr VT 24/0000z 27.5n 94.2w 135 kt
72hr VT 25/0000z 31.0n 96.4w 65 kt...inland
96hr VT 26/0000z 33.5n 96.5w 30 kt...inland
120hr VT 27/0000z 35.0n 96.5w 25 kt...dissiapting inland
that was back in the early 60's, my mom said it was the single scariest moment of her life. the house right next to hers was totally destroyed, yet theirs was hardly messed up. luckily noone was killed, at least not in their neighborhood.
This retired Professor of Atmospherical Sciences or something like that, said that in 1955 (i think) there were 2 CAT 4's that hit NO and Houston. Weird, huh?
This hurricane is very confusing.
Damn, think about how strong this is right now. They're going to get some phenomenal readings after this thing goes through the loop current intensification.
I'm waiting for the new GFS. It should be out in an hour. Hopefully that will give us a better picture of just what is going on with this storm.
They should have a plane in the storm sometime around midnight as well. It probably has another 12 hours of time in which it can increase then it should start a shallow decline.
It is currently in the loop current. It will exit it in about 12 hours.
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