***** The Official 2014 Avante Football Thread *****

[spurraider21]

That coming from a guy who...."how can any of that matter when there are different coachs and players involved"...as you watch the Raiders lose another eastern time zone game, hahaha!!!!!!

the raiders are a terrible team. there's a good chance that they'll lose any given sunday regardless of who or where they play

[DD]

I'd have to have you break each game down and explain why you made the play. If ya can't do that....lucky!

Vikings(+10.5) at Saints: Obvious choice with AP gone and the Saints desperate for a win in their home-opener. Barely got it, but it's a W
Colts(-7) at Jaguars: Jacksonville is the worst team in football and the Colts couldn't afford to drop to 0-3.
Chargers(+2.5) at Bills: Homer pick.
Cowboys(-1) at Rams: Romo and Murray have a history of great games against StL.
ans(+7) at Bengals: Bengals have won 10-11 home (regular season) games in a row, and the ans are awful.
Redskins(+6.5) at Eagles: The Redskins offense looks ridiculously potent with Cousins at the helm.
Texans(-2) at Giants: Texans (much like the Bills), aren't nearly as good as their first 2 games made them out to be. Giants at home in a MW situation.
Ravens(-1.5) at Browns: laid off
Raiders(+14) at Patriots: laid off
Packers(+2.5) at Lions: Packers have looked incredibly weak thus far.
49ers(-3) at Cardinals: I honestly thought Carson Palmer was playing, but it worked out anyways.
Broncos(+4.5) at Seahawks: laid off
Chiefs(+4) at Dolphins: Dolphins have no business laying more than 3 pts to anybody
Steelers(+3) at Panthers: laid off
Bears(+2.5) at Jets: Cutler always wins on MNF

[Chinook]

Chinook

So why all that stuff about picking straight up during the season?

I was explaining some math. I don't have to gamble to understand gambling strategies.

[Avante]

the raiders are a terrible team. there's a good chance that they'll lose any given sunday regardless of who or where they play

Are you just flat out stupid?

If you watched the Jets/Pats vs your Raiders games, the tv annoucers talked about how poorly the Raiders play back east, what you missed that? Dude, you told me all that stuff was bull , ya know different coachs/players. so why the games? How about...Avante, yep, you're right.....ok little man?

Do you know your Raiders have won in Kansas City five times since 2007, so no they don;'t suck everywhere, so get it right....ok? Oh yeah, they've also won in Denver 4 times since 2008.

[Avante]

I was explaining some math. I don't have to gamble to understand gambling strategies.

Math has nothing to do with this however.

[Chinook]

Math has nothing to do with this however.

Of course it does. All betting relies on math.

[Avante]

Of course it does. All betting relies on math.

You're right if we are talking trends, $$$$ and the line.

[Chinook]

You're right if we are talking trends, $$$$ and the line.

We're talking strategy. The one you explained to me would win at most 73 percent of the time (likely in the 65-percent range). Simply picking the Vegas favorite would yield a 75-percent rate. So your strategy is not an improvement over the norm. It may beat out commentators on ESPN, but it shouldn't win in a pool with people who don't overthink themselves.

[Avante]

Let's look at...

Tampa Bay
Jacksonville
Tennessee

In 2013 those three went 17-27-4 ATS.

Now those three will face...Steelers, Chargers and Colts all as RD's. Hmmmm?

[Avante]

We're talking strategy. The one you explained to me would win at most 73 percent of the time (likely in the 65-percent range). Simply picking the Vegas favorite would yield a 75-percent rate. So your strategy is not an improvement over the norm. It may beat out commentators on ESPN, but it shouldn't win in a pool with people who don't overthink themselves.

Trust me on this one....you won't find any football pool where most those playing really understand anything having to do with picking football games. You say...."how do they play on the road coming off a bye"...and it's...huh?

[Avante]

Danny Woodhead out for the season. That'll hurt, he's a good back especially on third down, he'll be missed.

Smart move picking up Donald Brown.

While here...

I said this the day he was drafted......Geno Smith is not an NFL QB, his decision making sucks. Yep...nailed it!

How does any team let Chris Ivory go?

What was the big deal over Nick Foles getting ....WHAM!...he was in the play.

The Niners really miss Smith/Bowman.

Who will the Buc;s beat?

[ChumpDumper]

Look at the action I get with this, do I know human nature or what, hahahaha!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Love it!

It's human nature to try and downplay laughably enormous betting losses.

Keep trying.

[Avante]

The Jags getting 13.5?

Let's break it down....

The Jags on the road under Gus Bradley are....3-7 SU. Last season they got double digits 8 times and went...3-5ATS. They did lose to the Chargers 24-6 at home.

Their average game in 2013 was Jags 15 Opponet 28. Yep ...13...point losers. On the road they lost by...


10
28
14
16
7
20

So losing by 14 is a very real possibility.

The Chargers as double digit HF....1-1...under Mike McCoy.

As we know the Chargers are looking great right now and the Jags suck. Now toss this in the mix...the Chargers have covered 10 in a row vs the AFC South and have beat the Jags....

38-13 2010
38-14 2011 on the road
24-6 2014 on the road

That's 100-33 or 33-11 average.

Hmmmmm?

[spurraider21]

that line intrigued me as well, though we've seen a new qb spark an entire team. even the defenses play with more heart if they feel they can get points by getting the ball to the offense. bortles is impressive, and san diego looks iffy. good one week, bad another. you never know what you'll get. i dont think i'll be picking that game, but i'd take the points with the jags. look at oakland at foxborough last week.

speaking of which, the raiders are getting 4.5 against the dolphins on a neutral site (London). the dolphins are in complete disarray and almost made a qb change (coach philbin had been discussing it, but just recently announced he'll give the struggling tannehill another shot). they just got blown out at home by a mediocre kansas city team one week after getting crushed by buffalo at home.

oakland hasn't exactly been lighting the world on fire, but its hard to justify Miami giving up 4.5 points... especially since it's not a home game. i will be taking oakland this week. its my first time picking them this year, so its not just fanhood bias speaking here.

i also like atlanta to cover the 3.5 in minnesota. the vikings beat up on the lowly rams in week 1, but have lost and failed to cover their last two against new orleans and new england. the falcons should be able to take this one. bridgewater will be making his first start and the best way to describe him is unremarkable.

just by looking i like washington, detroit, indianapolis as well, but i need to think on those

[Avante]

that line intrigued me as well, though we've seen a new qb spark an entire team. even the defenses play with more heart if they feel they can get points by getting the ball to the offense. bortles is impressive, and san diego looks iffy. good one week, bad another. you never know what you'll get. i dont think i'll be picking that game, but i'd take the points with the jags. look at oakland at foxborough last week.

speaking of which, the raiders are getting 4.5 against the dolphins on a neutral site (London). the dolphins are in complete disarray and almost made a qb change (coach philbin had been discussing it, but just recently announced he'll give the struggling tannehill another shot). they just got blown out at home by a mediocre kansas city team one week after getting crushed by buffalo at home.

oakland hasn't exactly been lighting the world on fire, but its hard to justify Miami giving up 4.5 points... especially since it's not a home game. i will be taking oakland this week. its my first time picking them this year, so its not just fanhood bias speaking here.

i also like atlanta to cover the 3.5 in minnesota. the vikings beat up on the lowly rams in week 1, but have lost and failed to cover their last two against new orleans and new england. the falcons should be able to take this one. bridgewater will be making his first start and the best way to describe him is unremarkable.

just by looking i like washington, detroit, indianapolis as well, but i need to think on those

I love Atlanta vs a rookie QB.

Will pass on the Charger game, just too many points regardless of any situation favoring the Chargers.

There is no logical reason to play that Raider game....none! Backing a team that hasn't covered back to back road games since 2011..??? They've also lost to Miami...

13-35
14-34
17-33
15-17
21-33

The last five times they've met. So what if the Dolphins suck right now, so do the Raiders. Keep in mind on the road under Dennis Allen the Raiders are.....2-16SU.



Why Detroit? I do see the other two.

[spurraider21]

I love Atlanta vs a rookie QB.

Will pass on the Charger game, just too many points regardless of any situation favoring the Chargers.

There is no logical reason to play that Raider game....none! Backing a team that hasn't covered back to back road games since 2011..??? They've also lost to Miami...

13-35
14-34
17-33
15-17
21-33

The last five times they've met. So what if the Dolphins suck right now, so do the Raiders.



Why Detroit? I do see the other two.

i'm not interested in raiders performances against miami from 2011 and earlier... they just don't matter. also of those 5 games you brought up, 4 were in miami. in a game with 2 lousy teams playing, i'll take the one getting more than a field goal. the raiders have covered their 2 road games this season, both in the east cost, fyi

i like detroit in a pickem game because their defensive line should be able to control the game. the jets aren't very good and their secondary can be thrown at

[Avante]

i'm not interested in raiders performances against miami from 2011 and earlier... they just don't matter. also of those 5 games you brought up, 4 were in miami. in a game with 2 lousy teams playing, i'll take the one getting more than a field goal. the raiders have covered their 2 road games this season, both in the east cost, fyi

i like detroit in a pickem game because their defensive line should be able to control the game. the jets aren't very good and their secondary can be thrown at

This....don't wanna know too much....of yours, hmmmmm? I want it all.

Sure the Raiders won ATS in the ETZ but were getting 5.5 and what 14? And got real real lucky vs the Jets as you know.

The Lions are 1-11ATS the last 12 times in this "spot". That being ...away after SU win. The Jets at home "again" ATS 8-1 since 2007.

I can't ignore a 19-2 trend favoring the Jets in this '"spot" and I will not back Geno Smith ever again. So...no play...for me.

If ya saw the Bears game you know that the Jets could have won that game despite Geno Smith.

The Lions their last 9 road games....3-6 the Jets last 9 home game...7-2.

[spurraider21]

The Lions are 1-11ATS the last 12 times in this "spot". That being ...away after SU win. The Jets at home "again" ATS 8-1 since 2007.

I can't ignore a 19-2 trend favoring the Jets in this '"pot" and I will not back Geno Smith ever again. So...no play...for me.

the problem with stuff like this is how arbitrary it is. you are looking at their ATS record after SU wins? its so all over the place.

anybody can dissect old schedules and come up with the weirdest trends... ATS record in week after road games decided by 10 points or less, or ATS record the week before a division game, etc. at some point it boils down to just silly stats people come up with

[chunticakes]

$100 Avante doesn't get to .500 this week. Takers?

[Avante]

the problem with stuff like this is how arbitrary it is. you are looking at their ATS record after SU wins? its so all over the place.

anybody can dissect old schedules and come up with the weirdest trends... ATS record in week after road games decided by 10 points or less, or ATS record the week before a division game, etc. at some point it boils down to just silly stats people come up with

Why did I play 330 on the Falcons then sat back and watched it go down just exactly like I knew it would?

It was a Thursday night "spot" in that "spot" there is no team in the league better than this...

7-1ATS
5-0 vs the Division
5-1 at home

For Atlanta, while the Buc's....0-2 after two straight up losses.

Easy win! Everything screamed....ATLANTA!

I coud go on and on and on, giving tons of examples of plays that strong.

You simply have never spent anytime actually reading up on this stuff so are ignorant to it.

[spurraider21]

why did you play any of your plays for the past two years?

[Avante]

$100 Avante doesn't get to .500 this week. Takers?

Take away a two point try and a blown 27-3 lead and I;d be 9-6.

You're going to foolish, trust me.

[spurraider21]

Take away a two point try and a blown 27-3 lead and I;d be 9-6.

You're going to foolish, trust me.

you're also 2 plays away from being 5-10

[Avante]

why did you play any of your plays for the past two years?

We have a lot of dumb kids here as you've noticed. I;m sure you've picked up on.....if I hit....crickets! If I'm right about anything like Russell Wilson, Terrance West, Dri Archer....crickets/or bull .

look at you. When I was down 350 it was big old letters and 0-3 0-3 0-3. Then when I erased all that in one week......crickets.

I gain nothing here by wining as you see, the fun is watching the punk kids....YOU LOST YOU LOST...hahahaha!!!!!!!!! My son and I had a lot of fun with it.

, it's so bad I can't even pick SU anymore, these dummies can't figure out the difference or what a ..5..means, To these dummies it's...YOU LOST YOU LOST!!!!!!...hahaha!!!!!!!!


I got a little unlucky in week one, since then I've won my $$$ back and have gone 7-5 while not great it will get easier.

Look at you, I tell you.....the Raiders don't win in the ETZ, and you must battle with me............why? Why not learn a few things, instead the constant battle?

[spurraider21]

there's nothing wrong with being a mediocre gambler