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The latest track has moved about 50 miles east.. dead on Houston.
Thanka!
The latest track has moved about 50 miles east.. dead on Houston.
Looks like she leveled out and will be going through an eyewall replacement cycle sometime soon.Hurricane Rita Intermediate Advisory Number 19a
Statement as of 7:00 am CDT on September 22, 2005
At 7 am CDT...1200z...the eye of Hurricane Rita was located near
la ude 25.2 north...longitude 88.3 west or about 490 miles
southeast of Galveston Texas and about 595 miles east-southeast of
Corpus Christi Texas.
Rita is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are estimated near 170 mph with higher
gusts. This makes Rita a potentially catastrophic category
five hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. A slow weakening trend
is forecast but Rita is expected to reach the coast late Friday or
early Saturday as a major hurricane...at least category three.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the
center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 185 miles.
The latest minimum central pressure recently measured by a hurricane
hunter aircraft was 907 mb...26.78 inches.
Tides are currently running about 1 foot above normal along the
Mississippi and Louisiana coasts in the areas affected by Katrina.
Tides in those areas will increase up to 3 to 4 feet and be
accompanied by large waves...and residents there could experience
some coastal flooding.
Heavy rains associated with Rita are forecast to begin to affect the
western and central Gulf of Mexico coastal areas tonight into
Friday. Rita is expected to produce total rainfall ac ulations of
8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches from the
central Texas coast to southwestern Louisiana. Rainfall amounts of
2 to 4 inches will be possible elsewhere across southern Louisiana
...Including the New Orleans metropolitan area. After Rita moves
inland...total rain ac ulations of 5 to 10 inches will be
possible over eastern Texas... and central and eastern Oklahoma
during Saturday and Sunday.
Repeating the 7 am CDT position...25.2 N... 88.3 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds...170
mph. Minimum central pressure... 907 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
10 am CDT.
Forecaster Avila
I know all the models have it still heading towards Texas, but it looks to me like it keeps jogging more North - straight towards New Orleans. I'm no meteorologist, but what are the possibilities that the eye could pass over Louisiana instead of Texas?
There's always a chance...never say never....
Manny...despite what the update panel says, the NAM 06Z is current. The dates on the graphics show this.
The NAM 12Z will kick off in about an hour.
I think both of them are in the dice-rolling stage at this point...
edit...ignore my update comment...I misread your earlier post. Need more coffee...
New Orleans would be the best place to hit .. it's empty and already destroyed and earmarked for rebuild money...
Vash, I hate to say it but I agree. Looks like it is coming right up the border though.
Thankfully she's started her decline. The last sat images don't look nearlly as impressive.
My husband said this also.
Manny, what's in store for SA then? Wind?
Probably not much of anything except maybe a little rain is what it looks like. So much for our new roofs.
The last few GFS runs all meander the remanents back over Texas. Not good.
Damn!Probably not much of anything except maybe a little rain is what it looks like. So much for our new roofs.
But isn't it more toward Dallas?
I wouldn't count anything out though...just to be safe, I'm going home tonight and doing a -load of laundry.
no, the GFS spreads themoisture out over Texas, we'd get rain out of that.
But as for the actual landfall? That far east we won't get anything but a change in the direction of the wind to out of the north. Not much, not even rain unless the remannets shift west.
No, GFS actually has the remnants do a hook pattern and come right over SA around the middle of next week...But isn't it more toward Dallas?
I wouldn't count anything out though...just to be safe, I'm going home tonight and doing a -load of laundry.
Seriously though, there are indications that it is going to slow down quite a bit on the way to the coast and possibly stall off the coast. That might be a good thing. If this thing slows down, the water it is going over should not (I say should not because they shouldn't have supported the 3rd strongest hurricane to begin with, take it for what it is worth) support a Cat4 or even Cat3 storm. The slower it goes, the more it will bring up colder water from lower depths as well.
Interesting as .
I think it has peaked as well. The last vortex has pressure up to 907, which is a significant rise even if the pressure in itself is still ridiculously low.
Let's hope so...but let's wait and see what happens as the day heats up, too...
Also looks like it's leveling off a bit back to the west...at least, based on the last few satellite frames...
Is it possible after she completes her EWRC (whenever that may be) that she could strengthen again?
And the heat of the day will warm the gulf water a tad bit, no?
I've heard the term...but I haven't read up on what it is. I may be a weather geek, but Manny is in a different geekness area code...
But isn't it more toward Dallas?
I wouldn't count anything out though...just to be safe, I'm going home tonight and doing a -load of laundry.
I was thinking the same thing!!!!
A lot of wind generated by everyone slapping their foreheads at the panic buying spree they went on yesterdayManny, what's in store for SA then? Wind?
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/D8.html
"Concentric eyewall cycles" (or "eyewall replacement cycle" ) naturally occur in intense tropical cyclones , i.e. major hurricanes (winds > 50 m/s, 100 kt, 115 mph) or Catories 3, 4, and 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. As tropical cyclones reach this threshold of intensity, they usually - but not always - have an eyewall and radius of maximum winds that contract to a very small size, around 10 to 25 km [5 to 15 mi]. At this point, some of the outer rainbands may organize into an outer ring of thunderstorms that slowly moves inward and robs the inner eyewall of its needed moisture and momentum. During this phase, the tropical cyclone is weakening (i.e. the maximum winds die off a bit and the central pressure goes up). Eventually the outer eyewall replaces the inner one completely and the storm can be the same intensity as it was previously or, in some cases, even stronger. A concentric eyewall cycle occurred in Hurricane Andrew (1992) before landfall near Miami: a strong intensity was reached, an outer eyewall formed, this contracted in concert with a pronounced weakening of the storm, and as the outer eyewall completely replaced the original one the hurricane reintensified. Another example is Hurricane Allen (1980) which went through repeated eyewall replacement cycles -- going from Categrory 5 to Category 3 status several times. To learn more about concentric eyewall cycles, read Willoughby et al. (1982) and Willoughby (1990a).
It is unbelievable the amount of traffic that went by my house on 90 Alt yesterday, last night, and this AM. The 4-way stop in downtown Belmont, TX was backed up clear to my driveway this AM (about 1/2 mile) - luckily I was going the other direction.
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