Spurs trying to track down the 2/3/4 seed

[will_spurs]

Let's assume the Spurs win all their remaining games. They'd have a 56-26 record.

- GSW has already clinched the conference
- Memphis can finish at 58-24, they'd need to lose at least 2 games (not sure who owns the tie-breaker, reg season record is 2-2, see below), I could see one loss against the Clippers (who would still be fighting for playoff positions). Maybe another loss to GSW although the Warriors might be resting players by then (penultimate game of the season). Only other possibility I could see would OKC (next game-we will know soon)
- Houston can finish at 56-26 (since they'd have lost twice to SA given the original assumption) and SA would own the tie-breaker (with a reg season record of 3-1)
- the Clippers can finish at 57-25, they'd need to lost at least 1 game (not sure who owns the tie-breaker, reg season record is 2-2, see below). They could lose against GSW tonight, and maybe Portland or Memphis (seems unlikely, and a loss to Memphis wouldn't really help the Spurs).

Re: tie-breakers, the rules are as follows:
(1) division leader owns tie-breaker over non-division leader
(2) reg season head-to-head
(3) division record
(4) conference record

In the case of Memphis:
(1) doesn't apply as we are in the same division
(2) doesn't apply as we're 2-2 over the season
(3) could apply if Memphis loses to NO, otherwise tied again
(4) Memphis is way too far from us in conference record, they win the tie

Therefore to pass Memphis we need them to (a) lose 2 games, including one against New Orleans or (b) lose 3 games.

In the case of LAC:
(1) if we get the tie-breaker from Memphis, we win our division whereas LAC finishes 2nd to GSW, therefore we own the tie-breaker in this situation
(2) doesn't apply, reg season record 2-2
(3) Clippers are 9-2, we could be 9-7, which means the Clippers would need to lose 4 games against their own division (they play GSW, Phoenix, and Lakers twice). This is clearly not going to happen, therefore the Clippers own the tie-breaker.

To pass the Clippers we need them to (a) lose one game and we win our division or (b) lose 2 games.

Well as we've seen the Spurs max out at 56-26 if they win all their remaining games, Houston would max out at 56-26 as well (if they win all but lose 2 to the Spurs), and Memphis would be at 56-26 too if they lose 2 games.

In this case the tie-breaker is as follows:
(1) Better winning % in all games among the tied teams
(2) If all teams in same division (which is the case), better winning % against teams in own division
(3) Better winning % against conference

(1) Memphis-Spurs 2-2, Memphis-Houston 2-2, Spurs-Houston 3-1: therefore Memphis is at 4-4, Houston is at 3-5 and the Spurs are 5-3.

This qualifies as a "complete" tie-breaker, because all the teams have different records. The Spurs would win the division, Memphis would be 2nd and Houston 3rd (and then seeded appropriately).

A lot of the Spurs chances to move up in seeding revolve around beating Houston twice in order to own the tie-breaker against them.

Since I wrote this both the Clippers and Memphis lost one game so the new rules are as follows:

Spurs get #2 seed if:
- Spurs win out
- Memphis (a) loses against NOP or (b) loses 2 games

The Spurs can also finish at #2 if they don't win out, but that'd require still winning the 2 games against Houston AND that all of Memphis/Houston/Clippers lose an extra game for every Spurs loss. It's not downright impossible but way too unlikely to even consider.

To get #3 seed:
- Spurs win out
- Clippers lose one more game

(or if the Spurs have n losses, Houston has n+2 losses and Clippers have n+1 losses... good luck with that)

Important games:
- Spurs-Rockets 4/8
- Grizz-NOP 4/8
- Spurs @ Rockets 4/10
- Grizz @ Clippers 4/11

[TampaDude]

Dat Knicks loss, doe...it just keeps ing us...

At least we can't drop below #6 now.

We're gonna win out, don't worry. #3 seed. We'll be fine.

GO SPURS GO!!!!!

[Beaverfuzz]

I know you've been trying really hard all season to make "Slippers"/"Slipps" happen, but it's just not happening. Sorry, man.

Dude, this is from the 1980's, long before you were even a glob of semen in your mom's eye.

[Beaverfuzz]

You're right. We can only finish above them if we're tied or have a better record. Right now we have the same losses as them so we could still be tied.

Tied yes but they own the tiebreaker, so still in 6th but tracking down Houston, Memphis, and the Slippers (See what I did there?)

[will_spurs]

Tied yes but they own the tiebreaker, so still in 6th but tracking down Houston, Memphis, and the Slippers (See what I did there?)

That's better

And the Clippers don't own the tiebreaker. If Spurs win their division then they own the tiebreaker. Any other scenario and the Clippers have it.

[ace3g]

	W	L	PCT	GB	HOME	ROAD	DIV	CONF	PF	PA	DIFF	STRK	L10
1zGolden State Warriors	63	15	.808	-	35-2	28-13	13-3	38-10	109.6	99.3	+10.2	L2	8-2
2xMemphis Grizzlies	53	25	.679	10	30-10	23-15	9-7	34-15	98.5	95.1	+3.4	W1	6-4
3xHouston Rockets	53	25	.679	10	28-10	25-15	7-7	31-18	103.6	100.5	+3.1	L1	7-3
4yPortland Trail Blazers	50	27	.649	12.5	31-8	19-19	10-3	30-17	102.8	98.0	+4.8	L1	6-4
5xLos Angeles Clippers	53	26	.671	10.5	28-11	25-15	11-4	34-15	106.8	100.3	+6.5	W4	9-1
6xSan Antonio Spurs	53	26	.671	10.5	32-8	21-18	7-7	30-19	103.1	96.8	+6.3	W9	9-1
7xDallas Mavericks	46	31	.597	16.5	25-14	21-17	7-9	25-22	104.6	101.7	+2.9	L2	4-6
8New Orleans Pelicans	42	36	.538	21	26-13	16-23	7-7	26-22	99.2	98.7	+0.5	L1	5-5
Oklahoma City Thunder	42	36	.538	21	27-12	15-24	8-6	22-27	103.4	101.6	+1.8	L4	4-6

[Malik Hairston]

Friday's game is the biggest game of the season, tbh..

[apalisoc_9]

Everything boils down to 1 game now..Should the spurs win in friday, they should be in a good position to steal the 2nd..

Provided Memphis loses against LA or GSW or even both...

[MultiTroll]

On the 1 day at a time plan,

We pull for the Golden State s tommorow night.
Would pull us ahead of Clippers (even if temp) and put more space between us and Blazers.

[Horry Hipcheck]

Pop's been saying he won't chase the higher seed but you don't pull within a half game of No. 2 and then just play with yourself.

[GSH]

Memphis and the Clippers have a game against each other left. One of them HAS to lose one more.

Honestly, getting the 5 seed with HCA over Portland would be just fine. Catch GSW in the second round - they have to play them on the road sooner or later. Let Houston/Memphis/Clippers duke it out for the right to meet in the West Finals? Could be a lot worse.

[timtonymanu]

Memphis and the Clippers have a game against each other left. One of them HAS to lose one more.

Honestly, getting the 5 seed with HCA over Portland would be just fine. Catch GSW in the second round - they have to play them on the road sooner or later. Let Houston/Memphis/Clippers duke it out for the right to meet in the West Finals? Could be a lot worse.

This.

[Seventyniner]

I would prefer the Clippers to get #5, but that all but requires Memphis to beat them Saturday, making the #2 seed nearly impossible for the Spurs.

[Spurs 4 The Win]

I would prefer the Clippers to get #5, but that all but requires Memphis to beat them Saturday, making the #2 seed nearly impossible for the Spurs.

Memphis has plenty of opportunities to lose after that game

[hater]

Honestly, getting the 5 seed with HCA over Portland would be just fine. Catch GSW in the second round - they have to play them on the road sooner or later. Let Houston/Memphis/Clippers duke it out for the right to meet in the West Finals? Could be a lot worse.

agree.

all good points. would not be a bad road.

bad roads would be going 7 games against Dallas again only to face Memphis to beat us up and then Golden State to feast on our remains.

[jhfenton]

Hollinger's Playoff Odds now predict a 4-way tie among the Spurs, Rockets, Grizzlies, and Clippers at 55-27, which would give the division and the #2 seed to the Spurs, assuming one of the Rockets losses was to the Spurs tomorrow.

http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds

[024]

Clippers can easily grab the number 2 seed. They are 1.5 games behind Memphis. They have been playing great and only face 2 of the easier playoff teams (Portland and Memphis) in their remaining schedule. They get the Lakers and Nuggets twice

The Grizzlies can slip, they need to play against 4 playoff teams (OKC, LAC, GS, and WASH) and they haven't been playing great lately.

The Rockets have to play the Spurs twice along with OKC and Dallas. They've been playing well lately though and Harden will probably play until the end campaigning for that MVP.

Portland pretty much already clinched the 4th seed.

The Spurs have to play GS, the Rockets x2, and OKC. I think the Spurs have the hardest remaining schedule. Who knows about the GS game though, Kerr will probably pull the starters.

My final predictions:

1. Warriors
2. Clippers
3. Rockets
4. Blazers
5. Grizzlies (but with HCA over Blazers)
6. Spurs
7. Mavs
8. OKC

Spurs squandered too many easy games early and mid season to make any run up the standings. Unless they defeat the Rockets twice and take care of all the easy teams, there just aren't enough games remaining to climb up. It doesn't help they have one of the harder schedules and Pop will probably rest the starters a couple of games.

Rockets as the first round matchup is a pretty bad scenario but at least they don't have Beverley anymore. Prepare for Spurstalk meltdowns when Harden gets 10+ free throws and the announcers slobber all over him.

I still stand by this prediction. The only thing I might change is swapping the Clippers and Rockets.

- OKC has an easier schedule than the Pelicans with only the Blazers they have to worry about.
- Pelicans still have the Rockets and Spurs left (although Spurs are very likely to rest the last game).
- The Spurs will probably lose on Friday against the Rockets and will most likely rest the last game against the Pelicans. Although... the playoffs don't start until April 18th, giving the Spurs at least 2 days of rest in between. Pop might play the starters the first half to see how things go if the seeding is close. The game against the Suns might also be a rest game too but the Suns suck.
- Clippers have a good chance of winning out.
- Once the Rockets win against the Spurs, they should have a winnable stretch remaining.
- The Grizzlies have @Utah, @Clippers, @GS, and vs Indiana left. They can probably go 2-2. If the Spurs go 1-2, then Grizzlies stay ahead. I think the Grizzlies also are ahead on the tie breakers (vs division and vs conference) so even if the Spurs go 2-1, they still won't beat out the Grizzlies.

To summarize, due to Pop's annual resting regimen and easy games squandered, it will be tough for the Spurs to climb up. Would definitely prefer the Spurs to get the 5 seed so they get an easier first round opponent AND home court advantage. Just doesn't seem too plausible.

[will_spurs]

I honestly have stopped worrying about seeding. The Spurs are playing so well that it doesn't matter who we meet, when, at home or on the road. Either we're going to steamroll the opposition, or HCA/seeding wouldn't have made a difference anyway. This Spurs team isn't about close wins, refs BS or crowd support. Much like last year, it's built to rip the opponent's guts out and make them want it all to end (e.g. Portland last year).

[Spurs 4 The Win]

I honestly have stopped worrying about seeding. The Spurs are playing so well that it doesn't matter who we meet, when, at home or on the road. Either we're going to steamroll the opposition, or HCA/seeding wouldn't have made a difference anyway. This Spurs team isn't about close wins, refs BS or crowd support. Much like last year, it's built to rip the opponent's guts out and make them want it all to end (e.g. Portland last year).

Yeah, homecourt didnt matter against OKC last year... okay

[will_spurs]

Yeah, homecourt didnt matter against OKC last year... okay

You mean the series we closed out on the road?

At best we're the 2nd seed. Which means we get HCA against Dallas and MEM/HOU. We might not even get out of Texas during the first 2 rounds and I'm not too worried about HCA for those series. And we would only get HCA in the WCF if the Clippers somehow make it.

OKC was a really tough opponent for us, but they're gone. None of the rest pose such match-up problems.

[houston spurs fan]

Those 2 losses against the Knick and Pistons are especially tough now. Without those the 2 seed would be locked.

[K...]

I don't see the spurs resting much. Just some of the role players like Duncan and Manu. This is kawhi's team now. He doesn't need rest and these upcoming games are meaningful. The spurs are already playing with good intensity, why jeopardize that by throwing a game?

[hater]

Those 2 losses against the Knick and Pistons are especially tough now. Without those the 2 seed would be locked.

and Brooklyn

and all those double, tripple OT losses. too many to name

don't forget a couple where Kawhi missed the game winning FT

[mudyez]

I don't see the spurs resting much. Just some of the role players like Duncan and Manu. This is kawhi's team now. He doesn't need rest and these upcoming games are meaningful. The spurs are already playing with good intensity, why jeopardize that by throwing a game?

Wow, we finaly made it to this point!?

[Spurs 4 The Win]

Those 2 losses against the Knick and Pistons are especially tough now. Without those the 2 seed would be locked.

False, if we had those back and then lost to the rockets Friday, we would still be in dicey water, the head 2 head nature of the rockets games are rendering those less meaningful. However, if you look back at the 3OT games, the Lakers and Detroit game, in addition to the ones you mentioned, thats where the missed opportunity is