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  1. #826
    Mr. John Wayne CosmicCowboy's Avatar
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    EWRC is where the eye starts to tighten up and bands of thunderstorms form further out...these storms then tend to gravitate to the center typically robbing energy on the way and "replace" the existing eye wall...

    This usually (but not always) weakens the storm...

  2. #827
    Who is this guy, again? travis2's Avatar
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    Here's another article from USAToday, referencing the FAQ I just posted...

    http://www.usatoday.com/weather/reso...lacement_x.htm

    Answers: How hurricanes replace their eyewalls

    By Chris Cappella, USATODAY.com

    Q: What is the hurricane eyewall replacement cycle?


    Radar image of Hurricane Andrew's eyewall - the red donut - coming ashore in South Florida Aug. 24, 1992.
    National Hurricane Center

    A: To understand what an eyewall replacement cycle is you must first learn about a hurricane's eyewall.

    Hurricanes are made up of organized bands of thunderstorms and heavy rain that spiral inward toward a calm center. Each successive band closer to that center — the hurricane's "eye" — has progressively stronger winds than the next band out. The final tightly spiraling band around the center forms a complete ring around the eye in well-developed hurricane.This ring of thunderstorms is the hurricane's eyewall. It contains a hurricane's strongest winds.

    For reasons scientists are still trying to understand, most intense hurricanes — those with steady winds blowing faster than 110 mph — eventually form concentric eyewalls. That is, a second eyewall will form outside the original one, surrounding it.

    Christopher Landsea of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Hurricane Research Division says this occurs when spiraling bands outside the eyewall join together to create the second eyewall.

    An eyewall replacement cycle occurs when the outer eyewall weakens the inner eyewall by robbing it of "needed moisture and momentum," he writes in the National Hurricane Center's Frequently Asked Questions about hurricanes guide. Without these necessary ingredients to grow, the inner eyewall will collapse. The outer eyewall then becomes the dominant eyewall, even though it's larger, and the replacement cycle is nearly complete.

    The final phase of the cycle is for the new, larger eyewall to begin to contract. As this happens, any weakening that had occurred when the inner eyewall was replaced is almost always regained as the new eyewall contracts.

    In some cases, Landsea writes, a hurricane coming out of an eyewall replacement cycle can be even stronger. This is what happened with Hurricane Andrew as it was nearing the Florida coast. It was at its strongest at landfall, right at the end of an eyewall replacement cycle.

    Landsea notes that the discovery of eyewall replacement cycles in hurricanes contributed to ending Project Stormfury - the 1961 to 1983 government experiment to try to weaken hurricanes.

    He says that the project's goal of "seeding" an outer ring of thunderstorms within a hurricane to cause that ring to grow at the expense of the thunderstorms in the eyewall is exactly "what was happening frequently as a natural part of hurricane dynamics."

    You can read Landsey's complete answer on eyewall replacement cycles in NHC's Hurricane FAQ.

    Also, learn much more about Project Stormfury by reading a USATODAY.com story by Jack Williams, USA TODAY's weather editor.

  3. #828
    Can handle TheTruth Ginofan's Avatar
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    I've heard the term...but I haven't read up on what it is. I may be a weather geek, but Manny is in a different geekness area code...


    Well I guess it all just depends on when she does get the cycle going...it would be better if was closer to landfall, but now that Manny said something about stalling would that matter even though she will weaken from the cool water she is stirring up?

  4. #829
    e^(i*pi) + 1 = 0 MannyIsGod's Avatar
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    She could strengthen at anytime, but if you look at the images you'll see the western side of the storm simply doesn't have the look it did yesterday. There is increased shear. The perfect conditions that allowed her to get that strong are gone, and while the new track takers her over the loop current for a longer time, I would imagine her peak is behind us. I don't know whenthe next RECON flight is in there, but they have an upper air pane getting info right now.

  5. #830
    e^(i*pi) + 1 = 0 MannyIsGod's Avatar
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    Also, shes tracking further north than the NHC track. The next model runs should be really interesting.

  6. #831
    Desperate Housewife Flea's Avatar
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    Probably not much of anything except maybe a little rain is what it looks like. So much for our new roofs.

    I was already planning on it. Darn, we really need one too.

  7. #832
    Who is this guy, again? travis2's Avatar
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    Also, shes tracking further north than the NHC track. The next model runs should be really interesting.
    We should see the 12-hour projection out of NAM in about 20 minutes...and then about every 10 minutes after that...

  8. #833
    Mr. John Wayne CosmicCowboy's Avatar
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    I was getting coffee at the Exxon this morning and all these people were desperately running in and buying up bottled water and batteries...I was like...WTF? Don't you know we are 200+ miles west of the eye? They must have watched too much CNN last night...

  9. #834
    Basketball Expertise spurster's Avatar
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    It is unbelievable the amount of traffic that went by my house on 90 Alt yesterday, last night, and this AM. The 4-way stop in downtown Belmont, TX was backed up clear to my driveway this AM (about 1/2 mile) - luckily I was going the other direction.
    My sister's coming to SA on that road. Good to hear that it's not completely locked up at least.

  10. #835
    Desperate Housewife Flea's Avatar
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    I have some friends in Spring, Tx and they don't know what to do. They are stuck because of all the traffic. They might try to head out this evening.

  11. #836
    Mr. John Wayne CosmicCowboy's Avatar
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    I've got relatives in from Baytown and Port A both...plus 2 horses, 4 dogs, and 18 cats...

  12. #837
    Desperate Housewife Flea's Avatar
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    I've got relatives in from Baytown and Port A both...plus 2 horses, 4 dogs, and 18 cats...

    So where are you staying?

  13. #838
    I'm on a roll sa_butta's Avatar
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    I was getting coffee at the Exxon this morning and all these people were desperately running in and buying up bottled water and batteries...I was like...WTF? Don't you know we are 200+ miles west of the eye? They must have watched too much CNN last night...
    My mother in law was telling me that the HEB by her house ran out of bottled water. And she is one of the people that is freaking out over this thing.

  14. #839
    See you when it burns SWC Bonfire's Avatar
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    I've got relatives in from Baytown and Port A both...plus 2 horses, 4 dogs, and 18 cats...
    Cats are expendible.

  15. #840
    Chronic Lurker
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    My son and I left Baytown yesterday afternoon at 3, and we pulled into SA last night at 11. We were stop n go all the way to Schulenburg, then it started to thin out a bit. Our top speed was about 45! Oh well, we made it safe and now it's just a waiting game--hopefully I will have a home and a job to return to. I keep waiting for Manny's updates--he is starting to give me some hope about it weakening.

  16. #841
    e^(i*pi) + 1 = 0 MannyIsGod's Avatar
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    This thing is turning more and more north. I really think she might stall. BUT, if she keeps turning north, she'll head straight for the warmest part of the loop current. If she makes that patch of water, anything goes.

  17. #842
    Desperate Housewife Flea's Avatar
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    My mother in law was telling me that the HEB by her house ran out of bottled water. And she is one of the people that is freaking out over this thing.
    I bought two 24 packs but we usually buy them anyway. I saw people with a lot more though.

  18. #843
    Multimedia Spurs
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    At 9:30 last night, HEB/Austin highway twice as many registers open as normal.
    Some people have no sense in their common sense.

    I think it demonstrates how easily people, like rats in an experimental cage, can be manipulated to obtain certain reactions, like spending, voting, sending money, by marketers, by politicians, religious hustlers, etc. They yield their free will and intelligence, autonomy to an external programming en y. Robots executing somebody else's voting/spending program, enhanced by the monkey-see-monkey-do, herd-of-sheep behavior.

  19. #844
    e^(i*pi) + 1 = 0 MannyIsGod's Avatar
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  20. #845
    I'm on a roll sa_butta's Avatar
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    I bought two 24 packs but we usually buy them anyway. I saw people with a lot more though.
    I bought a six pack of beer last night

  21. #846
    Desperate Housewife Flea's Avatar
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    My son and I left Baytown yesterday afternoon at 3, and we pulled into SA last night at 11. We were stop n go all the way to Schulenburg, then it started to thin out a bit. Our top speed was about 45! Oh well, we made it safe and now it's just a waiting game--hopefully I will have a home and a job to return to. I keep waiting for Manny's updates--he is starting to give me some hope about it weakening.

    Glad you are safe and I hope your home stays safe.

    I love the updates on here. I check here more than I do the NHC.

  22. #847
    e^(i*pi) + 1 = 0 MannyIsGod's Avatar
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    she's right over the edge of the hottest part of the Gulf. It is almost as if this storm has a mind of her own and knows where to get the best environment. WTF man.

  23. #848
    Desperate Housewife Flea's Avatar
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    I bought a six pack of beer last night

    I also bought a lot of limeade.....for Margaritas ofcourse.

  24. #849
    I'm on a roll sa_butta's Avatar
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    Glad you are safe and I hope your home stays safe.

    I love the updates on here. I check here more than I do the NHC.
    Manny=Weather God.

  25. #850
    I'm on a roll sa_butta's Avatar
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    So are they anticipating anything further for N.O?

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