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NAM is now current to 60 hours...
Maybe instead of Crabby Jacks there should be a Where-The- -is-this-thing-going-watching party.
That map was ed up.
This storm was my reasoning for not going to the GTG on Friday anyway (wanted to stay in and watch the landfall).
NAM is now current to 60 hours...
At 10p the HEB at Jones Maltsberger and 1000 Oaks last night, it was still crowded and the shelves were picked pretty clean. I don't think people are panicking as Boutons would indicate but it would make sense that if we were going to get a lot of rain, as was forecast last night, people would shop now so they wouldn't have to this weekend. As it is, we are not going to get much if anything from the storm now.At 9:30 last night, HEB/Austin highway twice as many registers open as normal.
I'll bring some snacks!We can meet up at Manny's with all of his maps and grids. Ill bring some beer.
Damn...Matagorda puts a 22-25 foot storm surge over Galveston Island. The highest point of the island is 17 feet.
Travis...I'm gonna say it. The NHC knee jerked last night and this morning and shifted the forecast track to the Houston area in order to get that area evacuated because of high population. Now that they have that underway, they can be realistic and report the truth. I think Matagorda Bay is the realistic point at which it will come in, Have said this all along. We will see. One thing we have learned is that this storm is an animal that defies the rules and sets it's own steering currents. I also think the two models that have it drifting southwestward after going inland, can not be ignored. May be bad for San Antonio afterall.
and the sea wall is 15. ouch.Damn...Matagorda puts a 22-25 foot storm surge over Galveston Island. The highest point of the island is 17 feet.
The NWS did what it did because the models were moving EAST of Houston last night. The NAM has shifted back to Matagorda Bay, but we have yet to see the GFS 12z run which will give a lot more insight.
I agree about the possible drift back into central Texas. This is really hard storm to forcast becasue of all of the variables involved. Scary .
Hurricane Rita Advisory Number 20
Statement as of 10:00 am CDT on September 22, 2005
...Rita expected to weaken slightly but forecast to make landfall as
a dangerous hurricane...
...A Hurricane Warning has been issued...
at 10 am CDT...1500z...a Hurricane Warning has been issued from Port
O'Connor Texas to Morgan City Louisiana. A Hurricane Warning means
that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area
within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.
At 10 am CDT...1500z...a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from
south of Port O'Connor to Port Mansfield Texas. A Tropical Storm
Warning remains in effect for the southeastern coast of Louisiana
east of Morgan City to the mouth of the Mississippi River. A
Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
At 10 am CDT...1500z...a tropical storm watch has been issued from
north of the mouth of the Mississippi River to the mouth of the
Pearl River including metropolitan New Orleans and Lake
Pontchartrain. A tropical storm watch remains in effect from south
of Port Mansfield to Brownsville Texas...and for the northeastern
coast of Mexico from Rio San Fernando northward to the Rio Grande.
A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 10 am CDT...1500z...the eye of Hurricane Rita was located near
la ude 25.4 north...longitude 88.7 west or about 460 miles...740
km...southeast of Galveston Texas and about 445 miles...715 km...
southeast of Port Arthur Texas.
Rita is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph...15 km/hr. A
gradual turn to the northwest is expected during the next 24 to 36
hours.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 165 mph...270
km/hr... with higher gusts. Rita is a category five hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some slight weakening is forecast during
the next 24 hours but Rita is expected to remain an extremely
dangerous hurricane.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 185 miles...295 km.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 907 mb...26.78 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 15 to 20 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be
expected near and to the right of where the center makes landfall.
Tides are currently running about 1 foot above normal along the
Mississippi and Louisiana coasts in the areas affected by Katrina.
Tides in those areas will increase up to 3 to 4 feet and be
accompanied by large waves...and residents there could experience
some coastal flooding.
Rainfall ac ulations of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum 15
inch total are possible along the path of Rita particularly over
southeast Texas and western Louisiana. In addition...rainfall
amounts of 3 to 5 inches are possible over southeastern Louisiana
including New Orleans. Based on the forecast track...rainfall
totals in excess of 25 inches are possible after Rita moves inland.
Repeating the 10 am CDT position...25.4 N... 88.7 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds...165
mph. Minimum central pressure... 907 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 1 PM CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 4 PM
CDT.
Forecaster AvilaHurricane Rita Discussion Number 20
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 22, 2005
Rita appears to have reached its peak intensity during the past
12 hours. Hurricanes typically do not maintain such high intensity
for a long time. Initial intensity estimate is 145 knots. Although
some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or
two...due to eyewall replacement cycles...an overall gradual
weakening trend should take place. This weakening trend is based on
lower oceanic heat content along the forecast track and increasing
shear. Neverthereless...Rita is expected to make landfall as a
dangerous hurricane of at least a category three intensity.
Rita has been moving toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at 8
knots. A strong high pressure system currently centered over
northern Texas/Oklahoma is expected to shift eastward allowing Rita
to take a more northwesterly and northerly track. The eastward
shift of the high is forecast by all global models...resulting in
track guidance consistently turning the hurricane toward the
northwest and north toward the Upper-Texas or the western Louisiana
coasts. After landfall...steering currents are expected to weaken
and the cyclone could meander for a couple of days in the vicinity
of northeastern Texas...producing heavy rains.
Based on the forecast track and wind radii...hurricane warnings have
been issued at this time from Port O'Connor Texas to Morgan City
Louisiana. Tropical storm warnings are in effect on either side of
the Hurricane Warning.
Forecaster Avila
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 22/1500z 25.4n 88.7w 145 kt
12hr VT 23/0000z 25.8n 89.9w 140 kt
24hr VT 23/1200z 26.9n 91.6w 130 kt
36hr VT 24/0000z 28.2n 93.0w 125 kt
48hr VT 24/1200z 30.0n 94.5w 100 kt...inland
72hr VT 25/1200z 33.0n 95.0w 45 kt...inland
96hr VT 26/1200z 34.0n 95.0w 30 kt...inland
120hr VT 27/1200z 34.5n 94.5w 25 kt...inland
66 hour NAM is updated Travis. Shows the high pressure building around the storm.
and then drifting west right over this area. I won't give this specific scenario any credence untill I see it for several runs. The NAM has flip flopped too much recently. I'm reallyintersted in the GFS now.
72 hour is also up...I think you should find it interesting...
edit...n/m...really need to read the entire post...
We should have landfall products out of GFS in about an hour...
CC, they are saying 50 foot storm surge, if it remains as present strength.
I've lived here all of my life and I finally broke down and looked these places up on a map....
That doesn't sound likely. But there will be a lot of areas flooded from whatever surge comes ashore, even if it's only 5-10 ft.CC, they are saying 50 foot storm surge, if it remains as present strength.
Just so you guys know what is going on in these plots. The storm comes ashore, but then high pressure builds in EVERY DIRECTION around the storm. If you look to the Pacific, you see a trof developing. That would swing east, then move the storm out, but not after it sits directly over south texas for days.
What would you see if this happens?
98/2002 all over again.
The GFS is has trended this way, and the NAM is now donig the same. We need a more consistent set of runs to say this is true, but it really is very scary for San Antonio.
A 50 foot storm surge is basically impossible. The unconfirmed record breaking surge from Katrina was 28 feet.
22-25 feet sounds very likely just east of the eye wherever this storm comes ashore.
I am having a bunch of black refugees evacuated as we speak - I'm moving my brangus cows up to a pen behind the house.
don't know who "they" are but if I had to guess it was a bimbo with a microphone. No way it will be a 50 foot surge.
yeah, I just saw that one too...
All 3 BAM models are showing that hook pattern too...just different spots for the turn...
This is nuts...
The BAMM models can't handle a storm like this, but the simple fact that more models are jumping on this consensus scares me. If the GFS continues the trend again, I'm going to be very ing worried.
SW I had to look these areas up also.
"Boutons would indicate"
Did I say "panic"?
Did I say "irrational"?
I saw people, twice as many as normal the clerk said, shopping calmly at 9:30 at night, cleaning out the tuna shelves, the water section, etc as if San Antonio were Palacios and as if SAWS, if it were even able to pump after both the entire South TX electrical grid and the SAWS generators went down, were pumping out E.coli.
NAM is done...
GFS is started...
And I'm not getting a lick of work done...
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