Rita and Corpus Christi

[Ginofan]

Watching CNN now....we are going to be bone dry this weekend....Houston, Dallas, OKC will all get wet.

We are probably better off listening to Manny, Travis, etc. right now than CNN.

[KEDA]

I have about 20 cases of water here at the Office Depot @ Blanco & 1604, if anyone needs a case or 2 put on hold Ill do it!

just let me know!

[SWC Bonfire]

Not necessarily. All the TV stations seem to be hours behind the real situation...

If that hurricane degrades to a tropical and gets trapped in Texas by high pressure there will probably be enough rain to go around for everyone...

but the flooding on the Trinity and Brazos especially could be really bad...

I have always wondered what the Brazos would look like if it actually filled it's entire floodplain. We may have a chance to find out.

[KEDA]

correction, I just did a cycle count on the water, I have 19 cases as of 10:50am

[Swishy McJackass]

She needs to evacuate to Skidmore.

She'll probably get a pretty good north wind, TC. She probably just needs to worry about the trees around the house & power getting knocked out, not much else.

Yeah, I'm not worried too much, because we rode out several hurricanes as a kid in the same house. I think she wants to be there just to watch the go down.

[Swishy McJackass]

I have always wondered what the Brazos would look like if it actually filled it's entire floodplain. We may have a chance to find out.

Great. That's just what I'M looking forward to.

[SWC Bonfire]

Great. That's just what I'M looking forward to.

Moral of the story: don't build a house anywhere near a native pecan tree.

[samikeyp]

We are probably better off listening to Manny, Travis, etc. right now than CNN.

true but I am seeing the same thing from other sources. We are going to be spared, our friends in Houston and Galveston will not be so lucky.

[travis2]

Can you translate?

000
URNT12 KNHC 221500Z
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/1449Z
B. 25 DEG 18 MIN N
88 DEG 38 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2326 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 121 DEG 135 KT
G. 35 DEG 13 NM
H. 913 MB
I. 18 C/ 3058 M
J. 22 C/ 3050 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. OPEN SE
M. C017-55
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 1818A RITA OB 05
MAX FL WIND 135 KT NE QUAD 1446Z

Top: Message header. Time stamp is for 1500Z (10 AM CDT)

A. Actual time of fix. 22nd of the month, 9:49 CDT

B. Position of center in deg/mins, lat/long

C. Al ude at which pressure is 700 MB. "Normal" al ude is 3011m. This one shows 2326m, which means the pressure is very low.

D/E normally show estimated max. surface winds and their direction from the center. This report does not include them.

F. Max "flight level" winds and their direction. 135 kts = 155 mph (or so). Blowing from 121 deg.

G. Bearing and distance from center where winds in F were measured. In this case, roughly NE from center, 13 nm (15 mi) away. This roughly translates to a 30 mile diameter eye.

H. Lowest barometric pressure measured. Since there's no comment in this line about it, it is a direct measurement from a dropsonde.

I. Measured temperature (and al ude at measurement) outside the center.

J. Measured temperature (and al ude at measurement) inside the center. A strong storm shows a large difference between I and J. Earlier, Rita showed nearly 20 degrees difference between these two numbers...a very strong storm.

K. Dewpoint inside the eye. Lower means dryer, which means stronger.

L. What the eye looks like. In this case, it's open to the SE. Earlier the eye was closed. Expect the eye to re-close later today.

M. Eye character. CO17-55 means concentric eye (eye within eye), inner diameter 17 NM, outer 55 NM. This particular report shows an eyewall replacement underway.

N/O/P A bunch of techie stuff you don't really need to worry about...except that P has remarks in it. In this case, max flight level winds were 135 kts. Surface winds can be estimated as 90% of this...which means 140 mph.

[travis2]

OK, GFS is done...it has landfall at Sabine Pass in about 48 hrs. No left hook.

[Sapphire]

Well, that cleared things right up for me!!

I guess I just need to chill and not worry--it's gonna do what it's gonna do. Sorry everyone, I think this storm is out to get me. I just moved to Houston and started a new job over there within the last two weeks. First I thought Katrina would put me out of business due to the gas prices. That started to subside and now along comes Rita, with threats of $5 a gallon gas. Not to mention that my house is just north of Baytown surrounded by many many trees. And now I've evacuated to SA and there are threats of heavy flooding.

Forget the water. Pass the Jack.

[SWC Bonfire]

Well, I "called" Katrina, so I say this one goes up the Sabine River.

But I would prefer Baffin Bay.

Go ahead and give me the Klubby.

[KEDA]

ok, now down to 10 cases of water, we started this morning with 58

[CosmicCowboy]

If this storm has taught us anything it is that they don't know where the it is going.

Don't count on this projection lasting.

[CosmicCowboy]

hmmm, Sabine Pass huh?...Beaumont, Port Arthur, and Orange...

well gotta admit...if you were gonna give Texas an enema thats where you would put the hose...

[SpursWoman]

Moral of the story: don't build a house anywhere near a native pecan tree.

Or just never leave the house on a windy/rainy day without a helmet on.

[SWC Bonfire]

hmmm, Sabine Pass huh?...Beaumont, Port Arthur, and Orange...

well gotta admit...if you were gonna give Texas an enema thats where you would put the hose...

[Sapphire]

hmmm, Sabine Pass huh?...Beaumont, Port Arthur, and Orange...

well gotta admit...if you were gonna give Texas an enema thats where you would put the hose...

They ARE a different breed over there.

[travis2]

hmmm, Sabine Pass huh?...Beaumont, Port Arthur, and Orange...

well gotta admit...if you were gonna give Texas an enema thats where you would put the hose...

[SWC Bonfire]

Or just never leave the house on a windy/rainy day without a helmet on.

I was reffering to the fact that most native pecan trees sprout in driftpiles. If water got there before, it'll get there again.

[SpursWoman]

I was reffering to the fact that most native pecan trees sprout in driftpiles. If water got there before, it'll get there again.

I figured that's what you meant...but I have many memories of being nailed in the head with them at my grandmother's house when I was little.

[TheTruth]

my mommy just brought me 2 cases of water and a bunch of chili. thank god for mommy.

[CosmicCowboy]

I was reffering to the fact that most native pecan trees sprout in driftpiles. If water got there before, it'll get there again.

I dunno about that...some asshole in my neighborhood must feed the squirrels pecans...I am constantly pulling baby pecan trees up in my flower beds where the damn squirrels buried them...

You are right about native river bottoms though...that is a good indicator...

[samikeyp]

my mommy just brought me 2 cases of water and a bunch of chili. thank god for mommy.

Hope the plumbing holds out!

[SpursWoman]

We continue to live history as this incredible Hurricane Season of 2005 unfolds more stunning surprises. Rita has peaked in intensity as the third strongest hurricane of all time, with a pressure of 897 mb and 175 mph winds. She is on the decline now, as the 11am hurricane hunter mission found a pressure of 913 mb, and increase of 5 mb in just 3 hours. The hurricane hunters also found concentric eyewalls of 17 and 55 nautical miles in diameter. All these signs indicate that Rita will continue to weaken today as her inner eyewall collapses and an eyewall replacement cycle begins. Rita is about to leave the vicinity of a warm eddy of Gulf water called the Loop Current that has been aiding her intensification. In addition, 10 knots of shear has developed on her south side, thanks to the fact that the upper-level high pressure system that was providing such excellent outflow for Rita has now shifted to the southeast of the storm. All these signs point to a substantial weakening trend for Rita that will continue through Friday and probably reduce her to a Category 4 hurricane. The GFDL forecast model and NHC predict that this weakening trend will continue until landfall Saturday, when Rita will be a Category 3 hurricane. Lower heat content water and continued shear are expected to cause this weakening.

While this is cause for some relief, Rita, like Katrina did, will still bring to the coast a storm surge characteristic of a much stronger hurricane. A Category 4 or 5 level storm surge is likely along a 60 - 80 miles stretch of coast to the right of where the storm makes landfall on Saturday. Storm surge heights will peak at 15 - 20 feet in some bays, and bring the ocean inland up to 50 miles from the coast. Large sections of I-10 between Houston and Beaumont could be inundated, and the flood waters may reach the cities of Beaumont, Orange, and Lake Charles. Wind damage will be severe, and Houston can expect a hazardous rain of glass from its high rise building like was experienced during Hurricane Alica in 1983. If the eye passes just west of Galveston Bay, the storm surge will push 1 - 3 of water into some of Houston's eastern suburbs, such as Deer Park.