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i expect the raptors to tank next year.They will suck next year as well.They werent even trying to tank this year and still
almost top 6 worst teams
A lottery pick in '25 has more value than a pick in this year's draft. Spurs already have a lot of youth on the roster as is anyway (whether it's talented youth or not remains to be seen).
i expect the raptors to tank next year.They will suck next year as well.They werent even trying to tank this year and still
almost top 6 worst teams
They've made several win-now moves over the past year that says otherwise. Regardless, looking at the standings the Spurs still have great odds of landing their pick; there's no way they can pass up the teams below them in the East or SA/Guests out West. , Memphis may outtank them too.
Raptors still have 5 games left against the Hornets/Pistons/Wizards/Guests along with a home-heavy schedule. They're ed if they decide to tank at this point.
They’re 2 games ahead of a reeling memphis team and 4 games ahead of a very bad blazers team. Even if they slide behind memphis and wind up with the 6th worse record there’s still slightly more than a 50% chance of the pick conveying.
if they get behind Portland as well those odds drop to about 35%
I just don’t think they are really bad enough to drop much more, especially with those head-scratching win now moves at the deadline. I mean they’ll have a chance at the lottery like everyone else but seems like god likes the spurs and god doesn’t roll dice!
I suppose getting 7th in a bad draft is still good, about the same as a 12 in next years draft.
He's likely out for the remainder of the season
Yeah, without Barnes they can catch Memphis
Sucks
this is terrible news. We gotta hope Memphis can out tank them
I wouldn't personnally have definitive statements about any draft in a vacuum, much less one year from now... People say '25 is a better draft entirely because of a teen (Flag) who dominates in high school but has yat to play real, compe ive BB. Adam Morrison was the next big thing at some point, and even without Wemby last year's class would have been tagged as great because of the ultra hyped Scoot and the Thompson twins... And there's only one team who will get Flag, basing or delaying your strategy on the small percentage of chance to get Flag when you already have Victor is very hazardous.
Last edited by JPB; 03-02-2024 at 05:05 PM.
The '25 draft has a few big prospects, with two of them going to Rutgers. IMM Flagg is getting outsize hype for a guy who isn't a great shooter and is more physically developed than some in his class, and he's had a few "no one can guard me" statements that make me cringe. But he's young. We'll see. Next year is sounding a ton like last year's draft when there are several 'can't miss' guys (minus Victor) and then it turned out to be a bit too much.
Way too soon to draw conclusions about this year's class imo. There's been plenty of draft picks that have looked underwhelming early only to come on strong later (Ant comes to mind recently).
Hawks aren't doing us any favors against the Nyets today
They're without Trae Young for a while. I don't think they'll be very good.
The issue for me isn't the talent of the 24 draft vs 25 draft
It's the likelihood of the pick conveying at all
Toronto without Anunoby and Siakam has been horrendous and much worse. If they had dealt them in the summer they would have top 6 odds easy
On top of that, you have to figure that the Spurs won't be bottom 5 again
Even if they don't try to tank, they could be bottom 5 the next 2 years and the Spurs get no first round pick
If Toronto gets their pick this year, they'll have a top 6 pick and what right now is Indiana's #15 pick. They've gone 5-5 in their last ten games. Small sample, but I doubt they'll be as bad next year as they were this year. Even if somehow they are, the odds will be about the same: if they end up with the 6th worst record this year (Memphis is better than them), we still have a 54% chance of getting the pick. If they end up the same next year, they'd have to defend the same odds, so .46 x .46.
If they manage to keep the pick even then in 2025, they'll be adding another top 6 pick and likely won't be any worse in 2026. But if they are the same, then it's .46 x .46 x .46 for them to keep the pick from us for three years straight. That is, if they land as the sixth worst record each year. And they're clearly not tearing it down.
F'n annoying tbh. If the pick doesn't convey this year, I don't think it ever conveys without becoming two 2nds tbh.
Memphis, the Spurs, and even Charlotte won't be as terrible next year and I could see the Raps absolutely tanking for Flagg.
I literally just told you it will convey.
You guys are totally crazy, the chance the pick doesn't convey in a 3 year span is VERY SMALL, and the drop off from 8th to 7th in terms of chances of conveying this year is 5.7% (73.7% vs 68%) so it's not significant like it would be if they finished 6th (54%). Also it improves it's chances of conveying at a higher spot. It's not worth fretting over.
Yeah, but you're wrong most of the time.
Spurs just added the #1 prospect of a generation and are a bottom 5 team and even worse than last year
So I don't think Cody Williams or Alex Sarr or Risacher will be big win generators for Toronto
Scoot and Miller haven't exactly turned things around for their teams either
Houston is better because they spent 60 million in free agency
Detroit is still trash after pick 5, and Orlando is better but not because of anything Anthony Black is doing that's for sure
This isn't of those times.
This guy understands.
Charlotte is well on its way to never conveying their first round pick for 4 years and that's ONLY lottery protection. 14 spots over 6 ,should be easy.
And there's even been the Play-In tourney to help their chances and they still have sucked enough ass to not convey since 2022 and few would forecast being in the playoffs next year
I'm sure there's there was a Knicks fan post in 2021 with a complicated formula about how it's impossible to not convey with a team of LaMelo Ball, Miles Bridges, Gordon Hayward etc etc.
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