Rita and Corpus Christi

[MannyIsGod]

I've been in contact with Steve Gregory part of this morning. We exhange emails on occasion, I'll post them here so you guys can see what we've discussed.

Hey Steve,

I know your busy but I wanted to drop you a line about the nightmare scenario that might be playing out.

The GFS has been trending torwards stalling the storm out over south central Texas for some time now, and the NAM 12z run just picked up on it as well. That would cause severe flooding here along the Balcones Escarpment (Flash Flood Aley if you will). So you have Houton and Galvaston ravaged by a cat 4 or so storm, San Antonio hit with days of tropical downpours, and the coastal watershed would then get all of the drainage. So even the areas south of Rita's landfall point are staring down the barrell of a huge gun!

Then Steve's 2 replys

Hi Manuel;

Your absolutely right -- the storm will be slowing down -- and may stall and actually drift around towards the SW. Wasn't planning on bringing that up until the 12Z GFS and then the 18Z runs confirm this scenario. Right now, I'm more concerned that the hurricane will move even further east than forecast, as into southwest LA.

Steve

Hi Manuel;

Since you brought it up -- I thought I'd tell you first. The newest datasets, including info from NMC Hydrological Prediction Center, confirm a disastrous flood event to follow. The GFS also shows the storm land falling to the east of Port Arthur! But the evolution of the primary convergence/cyclonic circulation center ends up going inland for maybe 100 miles and then begins drifting southwestward back towards Houston during a 3 day period.

Steve

This is looking horible right now.

As far as CNN goes, this is something they won't catch onto for some time. They're in hurricane hype mode, and they won't deviate from that untill the NHC or NWS forcast something which might be some time.

[MannyIsGod]

Oh, and our HEB on Olmos was ing out of water. We always have a case or 2 of Ozarka around, and now we have to drink tap water. Bas s!

[Neuromancer]

We're all gonna die.

[Shelly]

So that means we're gonna get a lot of rain then?

I've been in contact with Steve Gregory part of this morning. We exhange emails on occasion, I'll post them here so you guys can see what we've discussed.




Then Steve's 2 replys



This is looking horible right now.

As far as CNN goes, this is something they won't catch onto for some time. They're in hurricane hype mode, and they won't deviate from that untill the NHC or NWS forcast something which might be some time.

[Jimcs50]

Corpus is not even going to get a drop of rain it looks like.

[CosmicCowboy]

Well...Houston is still better off with flooding than hurricane strength winds. They are used to that.

[travis2]

Oh, and our HEB on Olmos was ing out of water. We always have a case or 2 of Ozarka around, and now we have to drink tap water. Bas s!

[sa_butta]

We're all gonna die.

Who told you?

[travis2]

There's that left hook again...but harder this time. Misses SA completely.

[Neuromancer]

Who told you?

The World.

[MannyIsGod]

That means a lot of South, and South East Texas as well as Western Louisiana are under the gun for a huge flood event.

If you remember what Tropical Storm Allison did to Houston a few years back when it stalled and dropped 60 inches of rain and apply that to a low pressure center that has the ability to drop much more rain for a longer period of time, and you have a huge diaster potential.

The GFS does show San Antonio getting rain as the storm center drifts back to the west, and the NAM of course brought the storm center right over San Antonio.

We're not talking about high winds after landfall for very long, but long periods of intense tropical downpours.

[MannyIsGod]

Yeah, Jim is semi-right about Corpus. If I had evaced from there, I'd be on my way back.

[travis2]

Corpus is not even going to get a drop of rain it looks like.

Not so fast...if the GFS holds up, the remnant comes right back over Corpus. How much rain, I don't know...

[CosmicCowboy]

That means a lot of South, and South East Texas as well as Western Louisiana are under the gun for a huge flood event.

If you remember what Tropical Storm Allison did to Houston a few years back when it stalled and dropped 60 inches of rain and apply that to a low pressure center that has the ability to drop much more rain for a longer period of time, and you have a huge diaster potential.

The GFS does show San Antonio getting rain as the storm center drifts back to the west, and the NAM of course brought the storm center right over San Antonio.

We're not talking about high winds after landfall for very long, but long periods of intense tropical downpours.

Damn...I think Manny's gettin a stiffy...

just kiddin Manny...

[Jimcs50]

That means a lot of South, and South East Texas as well as Western Louisiana are under the gun for a huge flood event.

If you remember what Tropical Storm Allison did to Houston a few years back when it stalled and dropped 60 inches of rain and apply that to a low pressure center that has the ability to drop much more rain for a longer period of time, and you have a huge diaster potential.

The GFS does show San Antonio getting rain as the storm center drifts back to the west, and the NAM of course brought the storm center right over San Antonio.

We're not talking about high winds after landfall for very long, but long periods of intense tropical downpours.

My sister's house had 5ft of water in it during Allison...this will be much better because it will be moving through instead of just sitting still dumping water on Houston.

[MannyIsGod]

Actually, the biggest thing for me this morning is relief. Jess' family stayed in Houston, and as long as the trackkeeps shiftnig to the east they'll be just fine. Sucks for the Port A people though.

[travis2]

Manny, take it from me...CC just likes slapping geeks around...

[MannyIsGod]

My sister's house had 5ft of water in it during Allison...this will be much better because it will be moving through instead of just sitting still dumping water on Houston.

Jim, it is NOT going to be moving through. That is what I'm saying. The latest indicators are of the storm moving inland but then backtracking to the southwest.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

Actually, the biggest thing for me this morning is relief. Jess' family stayed in Houston, and as long as the trackkeeps shiftnig to the east they'll be just fine. Sucks for the Port A people though.

Port Aransas is east of Houston???

[MannyIsGod]

I am obsessed right now. That much is undeniable.

[travis2]

Port Aransas is east of Houston???

He meant Port Arthur...

[MannyIsGod]

Port Arthur is east of Houston. Sorry, wrong Port A.

[Sapphire]

Port Aransas is east of Houston???

I think he meant Port Arthur.

[Jimcs50]

Jim, it is NOT going to be moving through. That is what I'm saying. The latest indicators are of the storm moving inland but then backtracking to the southwest.

why would it backtrack?

[CosmicCowboy]

the locals call it Pote Arter