Toronto Pick Watch (Top 6 protected)

[Mr. Body]

Yeah, but you're wrong most of the time.

I literally spelled out to you the situation. It would help if you had a grade school education, but I guess you don't. It's remarkably simple.

[Mr. Body]

Charlotte is well on its way to never conveying their first round pick for 4 years and that's ONLY lottery protection. 14 spots over 6 ,should be easy.

And there's even been the Play-In tourney to help their chances and they still have sucked enough ass to not convey since 2022 and few would forecast being in the playoffs next year

I'm sure there's there was a Knicks fan post in 2021 with a complicated formula about how it's impossible to not convey with a team of LaMelo Ball, Miles Bridges, Gordon Hayward etc etc.

Charlotte is a basket case of a franchise. LaMelo is really kind of a trash player who doesn't win games and doesn't bother playing most of the time. Their best player is a wife beater. They were so trash Rozier and Hayward just decided to sit out instead of playing, too. A top 6 protection is kinda different than a top 14 protection.

This is... not the same situation. But go piss your drawers if that's fun for you.

[Ariel]

Charlotte is well on its way to never conveying their first round pick for 4 years and that's ONLY lottery protection. 14 spots over 6 ,should be easy.

And there's even been the Play-In tourney to help their chances and they still have sucked enough ass to not convey since 2022 and few would forecast being in the playoffs next year

I'm sure there's there was a Knicks fan post in 2021 with a complicated formula about how it's impossible to not convey with a team of LaMelo Ball, Miles Bridges, Gordon Hayward etc etc.

I don't think you understand how the lottery works. I put together a small worksheet that breaks down the odds the pick conveys, for every possible pre-lottery slot Toronto ends up with in the next 3 years:

Chances the pick conveys given 1-6 protection, per pre-lottery slot:


Chances the pick conveys per pre-lottery slot in '25 (next draft) and '26 (the one following), assuming Toronto ends up this season with the 5th worst record in '24 (EXTREMELY unlikely):


Chances the pick conveys per pre-lottery slot in '25 (next draft) and '26 (the one following), assuming Toronto ends up this season with the 6th worst record in '24 (possible):


Chances the pick conveys per pre-lottery slot in '25 (next draft) and '26 (the one following), assuming Toronto ends up this season with the 7th worst record in '24 (likely):


Chances the pick conveys per pre-lottery slot in '25 (next draft) and '26 (the one following), assuming Toronto ends up this season with the 8th worst record in '24 (likely):


Chances the pick conveys per pre-lottery slot in '25 (next draft) and '26 (the one following), assuming Toronto ends up this season with the 9th worst record in '24 (possible):


Chances the pick conveys per pre-lottery slot in '25 (next draft) and '26 (the one following), given the assumption that it won´t convey in '24 (beware: valid only if (and after) Toronto ends up with a top 6 draft slot in '24):


How to read the tables:
First, come up with the scenario you believe most likely for Toronto's record (pre-lottery) in the next 3 years. Say you believe Toronto will end up with:

• 7th worst record in '24
• 3th worst record in '25 (hard tank)
• 5th worst record in '24 (mild tank)

Then you need to look up the percentage contained in the table that reads 7ª in its left uppermost cell (meaning 7th worst record in '24), under the row 3 (meaning 3rd worst record in '25) and column 5 (meaning 5th worst record in '26). That is the likelihood the pick conveys in such a scenario (in the mentioned case, it would be 81%). If you want to consider multiple scenarios, you can weight each cell by the probability you assign to its occurrence (black means impossible, then in a gradient from dark red to dark green meaning least to most likely). A simple way to do this would be to simply average the cells you believe are the most likely outcome, and that will give you a single number representing the chance the pick conveys under your assumptions (every person may end up with a different number according to their own set of assumptions).

So as anyone can see, chances the pick conveys are MUCH, MUCH greater than the chances it doesn't, unless you assume some crazy unrealistic scenario.

[MackAttack003]

Yeah, but you're wrong most of the time.

[onechance87]

lose memphis u fckers

[Robz4000]

F'n annoying tbh. If the pick doesn't convey this year, I don't think it ever conveys without becoming two 2nds tbh.

Memphis, the Spurs, and even Charlotte won't be as terrible next year and I could see the Raps absolutely tanking for Flagg.

It'll convey in 2026 at worst imo.

[mystargtr34]

Good stuff Ariel.

I didn’t realise how little the difference was between the Raps finishing 7th worst or 8th worst.

[mystargtr34]

The Barnes injury is obviously not ideal as the Jakob-Barnes-Barrett-Trent-IQ lineup has a net rating of +11 with over 100 minutes played. They don’t have any other lineup that comes close to that level of success

Pre Barnes injury I felt confident the Raps would easily stay ahead of Memphis and possibly even catch the Nets and possibly the Rockets. Now with Barnes out I think there’s no chance the Raps catch any teams ahead of them however I do think they can stay ahead of Memphis in that 7th worst spot. But even that may be tough if Raps decide to shutdown a few guys knowing they have no chance in the play-in or first round without Barnes

[scott]

I don't think you understand how the lottery works. I put together a small worksheet that breaks down the odds the pick conveys, for every possible pre-lottery slot Toronto ends up with in the next 3 years:

Chances the pick conveys given 1-6 protection, per pre-lottery slot:


Chances the pick conveys per pre-lottery slot in '25 (next draft) and '26 (the one following), assuming Toronto ends up this season with the 5th worst record:


Chances the pick conveys per pre-lottery slot in '25 (next draft) and '26 (the one following), assuming Toronto ends up this season with the 6th worst record:


Chances the pick conveys per pre-lottery slot in '25 (next draft) and '26 (the one following), assuming Toronto ends up this season with the 7th worst record:


Chances the pick conveys per pre-lottery slot in '25 (next draft) and '26 (the one following), assuming Toronto ends up this season with the 8th worst record:


Chances the pick conveys per pre-lottery slot in '25 (next draft) and '26 (the one following), assuming Toronto ends up this season with the 9th worst record:


So as anyone can see, chances the pick conveys are MUCH, MUCH greater than the chances it doesn't, unless you assume some crazy unrealistic scenario.

This analysis ignores (or maybe doesn't ignore, honestly I'm not following your tables) a key factor, which is (if the pick managed to not convey this year), Toronto has a direct influence on the future odds of it conveying. Finishing 6th this year does not translate finishing 6th in the next two years. The fear that some have is that if the pick doesn't convey this year that perhaps Toronto will go into Hard Tank mode (the same fundamental argument can be made of the CHI pick). Then it becomes less a matter of statistics and more a matter of how good a job the Raptors can do relative to the compe ion at getting to the bottom.

For the record, I don't fear the pick won't convey until I see evidence that the Raptors would hard tank (which I don't think trading OG or Siakam does, especially in the case of OG who returned useful-now players), but I can understand the fear.

However, I want the pick to convey this year because this is the only year you can count on it conveying near maximum value (given what we currently know). It could very well convey at #17 next year. The pick will have near maximum intrinsic and trade value if it conveys this year. Trying to press your luck for the same result next year is like hitting when you've got 20 in blackjack.

[Ariel]

This analysis ignores a key factor, which is (if the pick managed to not convey this year), Toronto has a direct influence on the future odds of it conveying. Finishing 6th this year does not translate finishing 6th in the next two years. The fear that some have is that if the pick doesn't convey this year that perhaps Toronto will go into Hard Tank mode (the same fundamental argument can be made of the CHI pick). Then it becomes less a matter of statistics and more a matter of how good a job the Raptors can do relative to the compe ion at getting to the bottom.

That's a complete recap of all possibilities, it doesn't make any assumptions on how the results on each year affect the next. In short, not every scenario in those tables has the same probability of occurring, I laid out all possible combinations so that you can look up the probability of the pick conveying for whatever scenario you deem likely to happen.

To follow your example, you may want to look at the odds of the pick conveying for a small subsection of the table 7 (Toronto finishes 7th), where 1 <= row <= 4 and 1 <= column <= 4 (or whatever you deem reasonable).

[scott]

That's a complete recap of all possibilities, it doesn't make any assumptions on how the results on each year affect the next. In short, not every scenario in those tables has the same probability of occurring, I laid out all possible combinations so that you can look up the probability of the pick conveying for whatever scenario you deem likely to happen.

Yeah, but if you run the tables after the pick DOES NOT convey this year, those tables look a lot different. That is the qualifier that gives people concern (no one is concerned about the pick not conveying if it conveys) which gets downplayed in these tables because the 2024 odds are included in your tables. If we assume that the odds are 50/50 that the pick conveys this year (yes, I realize this is not precise) than there is a 50% chance that the tables are irrelevant (because the pick has conveyed) and a 50% chance those odds are significantly overstated. (I understand your tables now).

[scott]

Basically... I think the question is akin to "what is the probably I land heads on the 2nd and 3rd opportunities after I landed tails on the first" which is different than "what is the probability I land heads over the next 3 tries"

[Ariel]

Yeah, but if you run the tables after the pick DOES NOT convey this year, those tables look a lot different. That is the qualifier that gives people concern which get downplayed in these tables because the 2024 odds are included in your tables. If we assume that the odds are 50/50 that the pick conveys this year (yes, I realize this is not precise) than there is a 50% chance that the tables are irrelevant (because the pick has conveyed) and a 50% chance those odds are significantly overstated. (I understand your tables now).

Those tables don't change, what changes is the subset of those tables that are relevant. To follow your example, lets say that you think Toronto will finish this season with the 7th worst record, and that pick doesn't convey. For starters, the chances of that happening are 32%. Then lets assume Toronto will go into a hard tank where they'll end up with a bottom 2 record twice in a row, which means the pick can no longer convey. Then basically the chances the pick conveys is that it does so in the first year, which is at 68% (100% - 32%). That would be represented by the 3rd table 2nd row 2nd column (7th in '24, 2nd in '25, 2nd in '26). That table reads 68%, which is exactly what I just explained.

If you're trying to get a sense of what are the chances of the pick eventually conveying CONDITIONED ON NOT DOING SO THIS YEAR, then yeah, that chance may be zero if you assume Toronto will hard tank (bottom 2 next 2 years), but that's a different question that assumes things that didn't yet happen and doesn't reflect the situation as it is today. I actually have that table (did it first to derive the others), I'll post it briefly.


So lets assume the pick doesn't convey in '24. Then you pick the row that you think best reflects Toronto's record in '25, and the column that best reflect Toronto's record in '26, and that is the probability the pick conveys for that scenario. If you assume bottom 2 and then they relax a bit and end up bottom 5, then the probability that the table gives you is 36%, which makes sense because you're assuming 0% in each of the first 2 years and it must convey in the third, and it coincides with the odds Tankathon would give you for a single year for the 5th worst record. I don't know if I'm explaining myself clearly.

[Mr. Body]

Somehow the league had Portland play Memphis away two nights in a row, which makes no sense.

Anyway, Blazers forced overtime and win, keeping the two game margin. Portland does a favor by taking care of two of the bigger possible wins for the Grizz.

[slick'81]

This s gonna go down to the wire

[onechance87]

hopefully raptors good enough to beat charlotte tommorow.

[Chinook]

I can't believe Portland caught Memphis. That was clutch AF.

Anyway, something that shouldn't be lost is that a lot of teams are going to tank in 2025 and 2026 for the big names at the top of those drafts. Unless the Raptors pull like letting Quickley walk or dumping Poeltl, they'd have a hard to getting top-six both of those years. If they do let those guys go, the Spurs have a chance to snap them up, which could be a positive for them.

[mystargtr34]

Portland, Washington and Detroit are front runners for bottom 3 next year imo.

I think the Spurs through Wemby’s second year lift pull themselves out of that bottom group. Likewise Charlotte with Brandon Miller being pretty good and Bridges being back. Lamelo I’m 50-50 on whether he’s a guy that actually contributes to winning basketball games. They’re probably better off trading him for real basketball players and build around Miller.

Chicago could be a dark horse tank team if they decide to unload DeRozan, Vuc, Lavine, Caruso.

Possible Utah if they decide to offload Markannen for a haul of picks.

[scott]

Those tables don't change, what changes is the subset of those tables that are relevant. To follow your example, lets say that you think Toronto will finish this season with the 7th worst record, and that pick doesn't convey. For starters, the chances of that happening are 32%. Then lets assume Toronto will go into a hard tank where they'll end up with a bottom 2 record twice in a row, which means the pick can no longer convey. Then basically the chances the pick conveys is that it does so in the first year, which is at 68% (100% - 32%). That would be represented by the 3rd table 2nd row 2nd column (7th in '24, 2nd in '25, 2nd in '26). That table reads 68%, which is exactly what I just explained.

If you're trying to get a sense of what are the chances of the pick eventually conveying CONDITIONED ON NOT DOING SO THIS YEAR, then yeah, that chance may be zero if you assume Toronto will hard tank (bottom 2 next 2 years), but that's a different question that assumes things that didn't yet happen and doesn't reflect the situation as it is today. I actually have that table (did it first to derive the others), I'll post it briefly.


So lets assume the pick doesn't convey in '24. Then you pick the row that you think best reflects Toronto's record in '25, and the column that best reflect Toronto's record in '26, and that is the probability the pick conveys for that scenario. If you assume bottom 2 and then they relax a bit and end up bottom 5, then the probability that the table gives you is 36%, which makes sense because you're assuming 0% in each of the first 2 years and it must convey in the third, and it coincides with the odds Tankathon would give you for a single year for the 5th worst record. I don't know if I'm explaining myself clearly.

Yes, this is the entire exercise, as Mugen's statement was:

F'n annoying tbh. If the pick doesn't convey this year, I don't think it ever conveys without becoming two 2nds tbh.

He is stating an opinion entirely conditioned on the pick not conveying this year, in which case the real estate on your table in which the odds of the pick not conveying DRASTICALLY increase over the original table you posted to assuage Mugen's fears. My response was essentially that your tables mislead Mugen to not worry about the pick conveying, because they completely ignore the original condition he specified that would cause him to worry.

[scott]

I do think these are very handy tables though, Ariel, not trying to discredit you in anyway... was just pointing out that they didn't directly address Mugen's concern. I think the tables would also be handy references if color coded. Like Red if odds < 45%, yellow if 45% < odds < 55%, green at odds > 55%

[Ariel]

Yes, this is the entire exercise, as Mugen's statement was:

[/COLOR]He is stating an opinion entirely conditioned on the pick not conveying this year, in which case the real estate on your table in which the odds of the pick not conveying DRASTICALLY increase over the original table you posted to assuage Mugen's fears. My response was essentially that your tables mislead Mugen to not worry about the pick conveying, because they completely ignore the original condition he specified that would cause him to worry.

I was trying to represent the most realistic depiction given the situation today. It'd be like someone worrying over the plane they're flying in crashing if it catches fire, I think it makes more sense to worry about the chances that it catches fire and crashes (very small), as opposed to the chances it crashes given it catches fire (almost certain). But if the original concern was whether the pick not conveying now could have a negative effect going forward, yes, I don't think it's quite as dramatic as it's being made out to be, but it's definitely a possibility that I wouldn't feel easy having to face.

[scott]

I was trying to represent the most realistic depiction given the situation today. It'd be like someone worrying over the plane they're flying in crashing if it catches fire, I think it makes more sense to worry about the chances that it catches fire and crashes (very small), as opposed to the chances it crashes given it catches fire (almost certain). But if the original concern was whether the pick not conveying now could have a negative effect going forward, yes, I don't think it's quite as dramatic as it's being made out to be, but it's definitely a possibility that I wouldn't feel easy having to face.

Agreed, and I think that is the right way to feel about it. Feel pretty good about it right now. Will feel a little uneasy if it doesn't convey, until we see some specific moves from TOR to indicate direction. If it doesn't convey and they start shedding assets? Hold on to your butts.

[Ariel]

I do think these are very handy tables though, Ariel, not trying to discredit you in anyway... was just pointing out that they didn't directly address Mugen's concern. I think the tables would also be handy references if color coded. Like Red if odds < 45%, yellow if 45% < odds < 55%, green at odds > 55%

No problem, I didn't take it that way at all. I thought about the color scheme, but I was actually kind of lazy, though it was more trouble generating the picks and uploading them, than putting together the table itself.

[Mr. Body]

IMO the only sign/way Toronto starts really rebuilding/tanking is if they fire Masai. Nothing has indicated any change of direction on this low-key rebuild. The fact that they specifically landed Indiana's draft pick this year for Siakam suggests they want/expect to lose their own draft pick this year rather than wait. People get mistaken about the rebuild because they saw them trade Anunoby and Siakam, when in fact those players were looking to make huge bank this summer. The team wanted/had to move on. None of the players they got in exchange suggest a hard rebuild or tear-down. They have a bright young talent in Barnes.

[JPB]

Spurs just added the #1 prospect of a generation and are a bottom 5 team and even worse than last year

So I don't think Cody Williams or Alex Sarr or Risacher will be big win generators for Toronto

Scoot and Miller haven't exactly turned things around for their teams either

Houston is better because they spent 60 million in free agency

Detroit is still trash after pick 5, and Orlando is better but not because of anything Anthony Black is doing that's for sure

Very good point and that's the way the NBA is going. Besides the Wembys or Chets of the wolrd, buidling a compe ive team through the draft is extremely uncertain, unless you luck into a Maxey, and probably won't happen. It's all about trades and FAs nowadays to get proven over potential talent. Spurs good, old golden standard is not viable anymore. Like it or no, the NBA is moving faster (like society) and taking the long, patient road to develop your picks is extremely risky if not suicidal nowadays.

This is a more aggressive NBA, you could preach patience and wisdom all you want, at the end of the day you might find yourself looking from the outside out... This is like old, school businesses 20 years ago who were reluctant in not refractory to take the online road, because a business should be in the real word... Now you don't exist if you're not online. It's also a generational issue that I hope, RC and Pop understand, not believing they're smarter than the mass and can bend the NBA to their own philosophical paradigm because that's no gonna happe, just like older people can't keep societies to change their standards. You adapt or you die... this is a Darwinian kind of situation spurs find themselves in .