The Spurs Surprisingly Straightforward Free Agency Outlook

[DAF86]

-Re-sign Rudy to a 1 or 2 years deal.
-Sign a veteran 3 and D 6'8", or higher, guy with the MLE.
-Draft the players with the most upside regardless of position.

That's it.

Those 3 and D guys could be either Thabo Sefolosha or Trevor Ariza.

Murray
White
DeRozan
Sefolosha
Aldridge

Forbes
Walker
Bertans
Gay
Poeltl

Mills
Belinelli
19
29
Metu

[TD 21]

Forgot to mention, for the umpteenth time, at anyone who thinks the Spurs would sign a Morris or that a Morris would want to sign with the Spurs.

As long as the contract doesn't go over 2 years, overplaying for Gay shouldn't be seen as an issue.

True. But the point I'm trying to make is, those who think this is going to be a quick and painless similar money or slight raise type contract should be prepared to see a relatively astronomical number.

Even if Gay isn't seduced by the Warriors, I'd be shocked if they don't express interest and his agent wouldn't be doing his job to not scare the Spurs into giving him significantly more money that they probably otherwise would have to.

[JeffDuncan]

I get that; but I dont think the Spurs just wanted scoring. They wanted a player that could help them win now. If that is the case, you don’t trade your best player for someone to help you win now without out making other moves to actually help said move succeed.

I don't think the Spurs do "win now" any more than they do "tank," under Pop. Too extreme. He likes better odds.

About other moves, I agree in a way. The first move after the Leonard trade was the signing of Belinelli two days later, which struck me as odd, and it still seems odd. More punch from 3pt range, obviously, but Pop doesn't favor the 3, and Beli was never known for defense.

Gay was signed a week before the Leonard trade. Maybe with Gay plus DDR plus Beli the idea was to fully compensate for the loss of Leonard's scoring. As far as just that much goes, it worked, during the regular season. The playoffs, meh. And the defense crumbled some.

But what the Spurs need now.....

The guards look ok. White, Forbes, Walker, Murray. All four young, talented (in one way or another,) and cheap. Can't beat them for the price. Mills is available as overpriced insurance. Should events turn brutal again, DDR can play either guard position. I don't see the guard positions as an area where the Spurs should spend more money this summer.

Beli is redundant as a guard, and he isn't much of an SF. He should be thanked and traded to a team looking for 3pt help, if at all possible.

Small forwards, we need at least one. Same old song.

[MaNu4Tres]

Forgot to mention, for the umpteenth time, at anyone who thinks the Spurs would sign a Morris or that a Morris would want to sign with the Spurs.



True. But the point I'm trying to make is, those who think this is going to be a quick and painless similar money or slight raise type contract should be prepared to see a relatively astronomical number.

Even if Gay isn't seduced by the Warriors, I'd be shocked if they don't express interest and his agent wouldn't be doing his job to not scare the Spurs into giving him significantly more money that they probably otherwise would have to.

Spurs can pay Gay up to 17.5 mil per.

I hope its a 1+1 deal at worst.

2 years guaranteed would be eeeeh.

3 years guaranteed would be a gross.

I can definitely see Warriors, Rockets, Thunder all offering the MLE.

[DPG21920]

One thing to remember is that the Spurs want (need) to win a certain amount even if they're actually rebuilding. It's the "small but spoiled" market phenomenon.

In that case, you need win now players to get you through rebuilding even if the realistic goal is not a championship.

A lot of us think it's a binary choice -- either win it all now or tank/rebuild with no vets and only youngsters.

The people who have to run this as a money-making business may see it differently.

I get that, but counterpoint; sa without Derozan or Kawhi made the playoffs. Getting a player like DeRozan is not something you do with the expectation of just holding onto the 7th/8th.

Adding some younger talent/picks type package theoretically has sa still a playoff team.

[DPG21920]

But again, I’m not saying just do something to do something. Just challenging the mindset.

I think with DeRozan/LMA this team could jump high if Murray is healthy and improved. That is so big. If he’s real, like White, then SA is going to be damn good as is. Which means they dont have to take any risks while buying more time to see whats up.

With Murray this year, SA likely is at least a 2nd round team. Would everything be viewed differently if that was the case?

[RC_Drunkford]

But again, I’m not saying just do something to do something. Just challenging the mindset.

I think with DeRozan/LMA this team could jump high if Murray is healthy and improved. That is so big. If he’s real, like White, then SA is going to be damn good as is. Which means they dont have to take any risks while buying more time to see whats up.

With Murray this year, SA likely is at least a 2nd round team. Would everything be viewed differently if that was the case?

If they add a legit 3-and-D SF with the MLE (and there are plenty of good ones on the market this offseason) and strike gold in the draft it would further increase their chances. With a trade at the deadline for a 3-and-D SF they could've made the WCF this year

[spurs10]

Murray going down was a big loss. We were fortunate that White was ready to play and next season let's hope we have both. I'm hoping, and thinking it's probable, Gay returns. We have 19 and 29 and hopefully we are able to get a 3 and D player as well. When does the season start!

Meanwhile, Go San Antonio Bucks!!

[look_at_g_shred]

Perhaps our biggest addition this summer will be DDR’s 3 point shot?

[Russ]

Perhaps our biggest addition this summer will be DDR’s 3 point shot?

Or Godot.

[sasaint]

Perhaps our biggest addition this summer will be DDR’s 3 point shot?

Better still... Murray's 3-point shot.

[slick'81]

Perhaps our biggest addition this summer will be DDR’s 3 point shot?

He hit 89 the year before in tor

[Roscoe P. Coltrane]

I like Davis but 7 mill is kinda pricy for a guy who got benched in the playoffs too lol

He's'll be dealt in the off season.

[tholdren]

Good writeup. Gay is terribly stupid and had the spurs benched him, they would have won the series. If you want to use dumb ass stats to prove how good gay was during the playoffs just look at his -29. ... second worst on team in front of derozan. Gay is worthless on d. Hes a terrible rebounder and play maker. Sign him trade him. Empty stat padder

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

I’d love to see the Spurs mix it up a bit, but realistically I expect to see the Spurs’ offseason go exactly as Timvp predicts. Thanks for the awesome article!

[Chinook]

So you think White will play fewer minutes next season? I'd be honestly interested in how many minutes you think White and Murray will average. Numbers, please.

Feel like that's a goalpost move, because we had been talking "low-ball scenarios", not predictions on what they will average. I think they'll combine in the low 50s with the low end being around 46 and the high end being 60. Simply put, Pop isn't going to stop playing Forbes and Mills decent minutes, and I don't see either DJM or White playing SF as a viable option. I may happen sometimes like how DMDR played the four for some minutes against OKC and LAL. But that's not going to be a real part of the rotation.

Admittedly, Murray is the biggest question mark heading into next season. So much of how the season will unfold will rest upon Murray's jumper. If it's improved, that changes a lot. If it's really improved, that changes even more.

Then again, even if Murray's jumper isn't improved, Pop will try to implement the faster paced offense he talked about prior to Murray's injury. And the improvement of White's jumper will be a factor. Oh, plus DeRozan will supposedly be asked to shoot more, too. Lots of moving parts so I wouldn't bury the Murray, White, DeRozan trio just yet.

It's early to be assuming much about next season but just based off of Pop's continued praise for Murray and how he has continually stressed how big a part of the team he was projected to be, I'd be really surprised if he averaged ~22 minutes per game next season.

This goes back to my comment about the initial SL last year. Pop may want Murray and White to start and get abnormally large amounts of playing time. But he's actually a really practical coach, and he'll reorder his rotation if things aren't working. I think we can all agree that that Murray/DMDR/Gay perimeter wasn't going to work, no matter how much praise anyone was getting. Murray/DeRozan/Poeltl along with two guys who prefer to get twos to three is so much less viable than that, that it's not funny. I'm sure Pop will try to increase the tempo to get DeJounte easy points, but it's not something they're going to do every time up the court. Murray isn't a very good scorer, so him going up against the D by himself time and time again isn't a recipe for success. It's also not very viable to have him do that with two bigs on the court, because it'll tire them out to keep running up and down the floor.

Who do you consider a top-level free agent? Durant? Who else?

Durant is worth any price, especially with DeRozan and Aldrdige still on the team. Even that next level of wings like Klay and Middleton are worth a lot if the team can hold onto someone like Bertans or find a way to bring in a mid-level player to compliment them. I really like how Rudy has turned his career around over the last few years, but there are viable options in terms of scoring combo-forwards who can be had cheaply. For all we know, the Spurs may be able to draft one at 19.

Yes, if Murray and White become breakout shooters, they open up way more possibilities. That's why there's a "high-ball" estimate to go with the low-ball. It's not that I don't believe they could have fixed this spacing problem. It's that I won't believe they have until I see it. Until then, they're pretty much fighting over the same niche and not threatening Mills, Forbes or even Beli for minutes.

You speak of two offseasons ago but just look at last summer. Gay played well his first year in SA, showed athleticism after the achilles tear and still only got a one-year, $10 million contract from the Spurs. What changed that a year older version of Gay is going to suddenly command four times that amount?

And contending-wise, the Spurs appear to be in a better spot right now compared to the housefire that was raging last summer. If Gay was going to pull a David West, it would have been last offseason.

I don't have a perfect memory, but I don't recall Gay ending the year very well at all last season. I certainly don't think he'd made the real "Iggy pivot" by last summer. This year, he's actually healthy, and he showed off his new role-player mentality way more than he did in 2017-2018 when he was essentially the Kawhi (mostly unsuccessful) subs ute rather than the bench scorer he is today. He may well have gotten interest last summer that he turned down, but I doubt it was nearly as big as he's going to get. He's a year older, but he's way closer to a winning player than he's been for like a decade. I definitely think at least one team with a better chance at a le than SA will offer him a deal.

[ZeusWillJudge]

I don’t think it would be humanly possible for me to become more angry with a person than I would be with Pop if he traded White to make room for Wombat’s minutes. I would be that one crazy guy holding a “fire Poop” sign outside the ATnT center

I didn't say that the would do it. But if they do make a trade, that's probably where it goes. You've got to offer something of value, and Pop traded George Hill even though he liked him.

I wouldn't be happy about it either - unless it wound up as good as the Hill for Kawhi trade.

[Seventyniner]

If he's re-signed, then yeah, it's straightforward. As I've said ad nauseam, unless whoever they'd covet unexpectedly falls to 19, I could see them aggressively trying to move up in the draft by combining the 1sts + possibly Forbes.

Just to add, if the Spurs don't end up moving up it doesn't mean they didn't try. It could be that they just couldn't talk a team in the right spot into a deal, but it could also be that they guy they really want ends up falling to 19, kind of like with Walker. Didn't PATFO supposedly try aggressively to trade up for Walker, only to see him fall to 18 anyway? Or am I remembering something wrong?

[TheCerebral1]

#1: Getting rid of Derozan. #2: repeat #1.

[JeffDuncan]

#1: Getting rid of Derozan. #2: repeat #1.

The main obstacle to that is in the arithmetic. DDR scored 21.2 points per game this season. And 6 rebounds and 6 assists. Who can we get, to replace him, who will give us those points? And rebounds & assists. Such players are rare.

As a comparison, Klay Thompson averaged 21.5 ppg, with fewer rebounds (3.8) and assists (2.4).

Stats are not everything, but they are something and they can't be totally ignored. To move DDR out, we'd have to at least be very confident of getting 20 ppg in return, somehow. A player who can score 20 ppg is a top-30 scorer, rare and expensive.

[JeffDuncan]

Oops, duplicate.

[R. DeMurre]

The main obstacle to that is in the arithmetic. DDR scored 21.2 points per game this season. And 6 rebounds and 6 assists. Who can we get, to replace him, who will give us those points? And rebounds & assists. Such players are rare.

As a comparison, Klay Thompson averaged 21.5 ppg, with fewer rebounds (3.8) and assists (2.4).

Stats are not everything, but they are something and they can't be totally ignored. To move DDR out, we'd have to at least be very confident of getting 20 ppg in return, somehow. A player who can score 20 ppg is a top-30 scorer, rare and expensive.

The floor opens up without DeRozan, giving everybody better looks. I don't think you need to replace DeRozan with a 20 ppg guy. A 12-15 ppg guy who plays D and shoots threes would make it much more difficult to double team Aldridge, and give White, Murray, Walker, Gay, etc., more space in the paint. So 9 more points total from the top 7 players combined plus 12 from his replacement = 21.
And if Klay replaced DeRozan, the Spurs would be drastically better... those assist & rebound numbers wouldn't mean anything.

[Philthemage]

The floor opens up without DeRozan, giving everybody better looks. I don't think you need to replace DeRozan with a 20 ppg guy. A 12-15 ppg guy who plays D and shoots threes would make it much more difficult to double team Aldridge, and give White, Murray, Walker, Gay, etc., more space in the paint. So 9 more points total from the top 7 players combined plus 12 from his replacement = 21.
And if Klay replaced DeRozan, the Spurs would be drastically better... those assist & rebound numbers wouldn't mean anything.

You need a guy who is a natural scorer to create and take shots. Yeah DeRozan sucks in the playoffs and can be inefficient at times, but he is that guy. Without him, we will be struggling even more on offense with everyone deferring to one another. Its not good defense that's an issue.

Our offense had stalled repeatedly throughout the course of the year when nobody wants to be the man to create. If we are replacing DeRozan, it's got to be another wing who can create for himself, and Klay isn't that guy.

[Seventyniner]

I know this thread isn't about trades, but since it hasn't come out yet I'll ask here. Belinelli, and perhaps to a lesser extent Bertans (depending on if the Spurs use the MLE on a forward), seem to be expendable and are on medium-scale expiring contracts. Has anyone tried to construct a list of players to target in a trade, whose salaries expire in 2021 when Aldridge and DeRozan will be expiring? That seems like the most plausible path to "contention" in the near future, while leaving flexibility for a rebuild in 2021.

[Realdeal1]

I know it wouldnt happen but signing Tobias Harris or Brooke Lopez would be great! Pipe dream I know