This is where redistricting changes for 2024 stand, ranked in order of significance:
New York - the COA is set to hear the lawsuit in November. If the new liberal majority actually lets Dems gerrymander, they net 4-5 seats. This is a coin flip imo.
North Carolina - It's not a matter of if but when the maps get redrawn, which will net Republicans 3-4 house seats.
Ohio - Map is going to remain as is, and I think all 5 Dem in bents hold their seat in 2024.
New Mexico - Even though it's a liberal state supreme court, it's not overly hackish and I think it forces a new map that nets the Rs a seat.
Utah - Similar to New Mexico, it's a supreme court that's conservative but not hackish at all. I think it forces a redraw w/ a blue Salt Lake City seat.
Georgia - pending VRA lawsuit in Federal court. I still think this one is a longshot but my understanding is that Georgia's lawyers have grossly mismanaged the trial so far.
Alabama - Dems are guaranteed to net a seat now.
Louisiana - Similar lawsuit as what Dems filed in AL that now has a real chance at success since SCOTUS is clearly upholding VRA Section 2, but I still think a 2nd black district in Louisiana isn't as clear as one in AL.
Florida - The Florida GOP has (strangely) already admitted that the current map violates state law, and it's banking on a ruling that said state law violates the (U.S.) cons ution. Even though the FL Supreme Court is hackish, they don't have standing to rule something violates the US cons ution, and idk how they get around Florida admitting that gutting Al Lawson's district violates state law.