If the San Antonio Spurs are going to miraculously capture championship number five in the 2009 playoffs, the first order of business begins on Saturday in Game 1 of their first round matchup against the Dallas Mavericks. These two Texas rivals will undoubtedly put on an entertaining show over the next few weeks.
As a Spurs fan, this was the first round matchup I dreaded all season. Even before Manu Ginobili went down injured, I didn't want the Spurs to have to go against the Mavs at the onset of the playoffs. Although Dallas has looked vulnerable at times this season, they always seem to give San Antonio trouble. Add to the mix the confidence and experience the Mavs gained in 2006 when they defeated the Spurs in Game 7, and the resulting concoction appears to be less than appetizing.
Since it was learned last night that the Spurs would have to take on the Mavs, I've re-watched a few of the hotly contested battles spanning back to the 2006 regular season to better get a handle on what exactly the Spurs are up against. I've concluded that San Antonio's success in this series will be determined by the answers to these five questions:
1) Can the Spurs slow down Dirk Nowitzki?
Nowitzki was absolutely outstanding against the Spurs in 2006. During that series, he averaged 27.1 points and 13.3 rebounds per game while shooting 52.7% from the field and 73-for-80 at the free throw line. While other teams have had success slowing him down a little bit, the Spurs appear to be in the same boat as they were in 2006.
During the regular season, the Spurs have usually started Matt Bonner out on Nowitzki. At least to begin the series, that is likely to be the case once again. However, the Spurs are sure to throw a number of different defenders at Nowitzki. The problem is figuring out who exactly on this team matches up well with him.
Kurt Thomas is a very good defender but he's likely too slow. Bruce Bowen has had his moments against Nowitzki but most of his positives are overshadowed by the fact that Bowen isn't big enough to keep Nowitzki off the glass. Fabricio Oberto has had some success against him in international play but that hasn't seemed to translate well to the NBA. Drew Gooden may surprise but chances are that he's too new to the Spurs system to take on this monumental task.
The two most likely players Pop will turn to are Ime Udoka and Michael Finley. Personally, I think Udoka would be a disaster against Nowitzki. Nowitzki is both too big and too fast for Udoka. Finley is currently defending better than he ever has in his time as a Spur, but I can't imagine him having too much success against the lanky German. That said, my guess, based on Pop's coaching habits of the last few months, is that Finley on Nowitzki is the matchup we will see when it's money time.
In the month of April, Nowitzki has been very good. He's averaging 30.3 points per game on 55.1% field goal shooting in eight contests. He's been somewhat streaky this season but the Spurs are catching him on one of his hot streaks.
Most teams put a long small forward or a quick power forward on Nowitzki. The problem for the Spurs is they don't have such a player on the roster. Because of that, all signs point to Nowitzki being a monster yet again.
2) Will Tim Duncan be able to dominate?
Since the All-Star break, Duncan has been slowed by knee pain in both knees. The result has been diminished production and the need for more rest than usual. Thankfully, the extended downtime during the first round should give Duncan an opportunity to get the needed rest. Hopefully he uses that rest wisely because the Spurs will need him to be near the top of his game.
Out of any team in the league, the Mavs are arguably the most brazen when it comes to defending Duncan without a double-team. Their strategy in the last handful of years has been to force Duncan to carry the offensive load for most of the game while throwing sporadic double-teams at him from various angles. Dallas' goal is to keep the shooters quiet while keeping Duncan guessing at when and where the doubles will be sent.
If they use that strategy this series, it could be wildly successful if Duncan can't score in one-on-one situations. The bad news for the Spurs is that Duncan has struggled since the All-Star break to consistently score in such situations.
However, the good news is that the precedence is in the Spurs' favor. In 2006, Duncan was struggling with injury near the end of the regular season and into the playoffs. But against the mostly single-teaming Dallas defense, he was able to lift his output to average 32.3 points per game in that seven-game series.
The nightmare scenario for the Spurs would be if the Mavs could get away with using Nowitzki to defend Duncan. If that happens and Dallas surrounds Nowitzki with perimeter players, the defensive mismatches for the Spurs would be virtually impossible to overcome.
3) Will Tony Parker continue his superstar level play in the postseason?
Quietly, Parker graduated from star to superstar during the regular season. He put the team on his back on many occasions and willed the Spurs to victory. His 2008-09 regular season campaign was fantastic.
But now it's the playoffs and the game will be totally different. There's a big difference between being a superstar regular season player and a superstar postseason player. With scouting intensified, teams will be able to throw looks at Parker that he never experienced during the regular season.
I'm hopeful he can continue to play at a very high level but it is far from certain. If Duncan isn't near 100% and with no Manu Ginobili to shoulder some of the pressure, the Mavs could focus their entire defensive scheme on slowing down Parker.
If the situation arises that Duncan can't carry the offense versus single-team coverage, it will be up to Parker and only Parker to ensure that the offense continues to flow. That is a tall challenge for any player in the league, especially one who is new to the role.
4) Defensively, can the Spurs execute the necessary rotations?
When the Spurs gameplan for an opponent, their first goal is to locate what Pop likes to refer to as the "head of the snake". In other words, which player on the other team is responsible for generating the offense? The answer to that question is who the Spurs typically key on and try to force out of their comfort zone.
The main problem against the Mavs and the reason why they've had a hard time handling Dallas in the last few seasons is the fact that the Mavs don't really have a head of the snake. Rather, they have a variety of players that can generate offense. The result is a Spurs defense that can't narrow its focus and instead must depend on synchronized rotations by all five players on the court.
Against the Spurs, the Mavs do a great job of spacing the floor and then penetrating from different angles with different ballhandlers. Nowitzki, Kidd, Terry, Howard and Barea have all shown an ability to cause havoc off the dribble. Any sort of late rotation or error in rotation and the Mavs typically end up with an open shot.
A lot of teams overcome this issue by applying pressure on the Mavs and then switching on penetration. The Spurs, however, don't have the personnel to employ that strategy. When they've tried to do it in the past against Dallas, the Mavs have simply made it their mission to attack Duncan and get him into foul trouble or force Parker to switch onto Nowitzki or Howard.
If the Spurs can make crisp rotations, they can survive the upcoming penetration onslaught from the Mavs. We'll see if the defense, which has been quite shaky at times this season, is up for the challenge.
5) What will the Spurs do to stay compe ive on the glass?
Rebounding was a big reason why the Mavs were able to beat the Spurs in the 2006 postseason. In all seven games of that series, the Mavs were able to corral more boards than the Spurs.
Statistically, the Spurs have been a great defensive rebounding team this season. However, those stats will go out the window if Pop goes small to keep a quicker defender on Nowitzki. With a lineup that features Finley on Nowitzki, the Spurs will struggle to rebound.
This is another area where the Spurs will miss Ginobili. In small ball lineups, Ginobili has always been the Spurs' second best rebounder next to Duncan. Without Ginobili, Duncan will be left to fend for himself.
The obvious solution is not to go small. If Pop is comfortable playing two bigs, the Spurs should be fine on the glass. The problem is that Pop has usually opted to go small rather than give the Mavs the advantage of Nowitzki going against a slower player not accustomed to defending on the perimeter.
Another idea would be to play Udoka or George Hill more minutes. Both have shown an ability to rebound but both have also struggled offensively at times. Pop will have to judge whether or not their added rebounding boost is worth a drop in the team's offensive efficiency.
Conclusion
After considering all the aspects of the matchup between the Spurs and the Mavs, I regretfully have to admit that the evidence points to the Mavs being more likely to win this series. Dallas is just a very bad matchup that causes a mul ude of problems. With Ginobili, I'd say the Spurs win in six games. Without Ginobili? The evidence points to the Mavs winning in six games.
The Mavs face their own set of question marks heading into the series but their questions aren't as complex. They are the healthier team, which also results in them being the deeper team. They have the experience of how to beat the Spurs. They are playing their best basketball of the year. They have multiple players who the Spurs have never really gotten a handle on (Nowitzki, Howard, Terry). And perhaps most importantly, both their offensive and defensive philosophies were created with beating the Spurs in mind. It's no accident that the Mavs matchup so well against the Spurs; it's by design.
Even though I give the Mavs a 60-65% chance to win the series, the Spurs are far from helpless. In Part 2, I'll give a player-by-player breakdown of what the Spurs need in order to advance to the second round.
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