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  1. #76
    Believe. nadroj117's Avatar
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    Over the past 10 years, margin of victory has only negligibly (i.e., less than a percentage point) predicted playoff series outcomes better than season record has.

    Just something to chew on.
    You couldn't be more wrong in your statement. Margin of victory is the single best meassure of future success over anything, INCLUDING win/loss records. Simply go back and look at the last 4 years.

    These are the teams that made the the Conf finals the last 4 years, and their conference ranking for margin of victory:

    05-06: Detroit (1) vs. Miami (2)
    Dallas (2) vs Phoenix (3) ---- Spurs were 1

    06-07: Clevland (3) vs. Detroit (2) --- Bulls were 1
    San Antonio (1) vs Utah (3) --- Spurs had 9 less wins but a +1.2 over Mavs 67 win team

    07-08: Boston (1) vs. Detroit (2)
    LA Lakers (1) vs San Antonio (5) --- Spurs knocked off the young Hornets team who hadn't been to the playoffs before

    08-09: Orlando (3) vs. Clevland (1)
    Lakers (1) vs Denver (3)

    With the exception of the Spurs on 08. Every conference finalst were in the top 3 of their conf in margin of victory. Obviously this isn't the only factor, and playoff experience, injuries and those types of things come into play in the playoffs. BUT it is a proven measure of future success over any other measurement.

  2. #77
    Believe.
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    How is that any different than you thinking that the Mavs are " ed" if the play the Spurs this year?

    They sure didn't look ed when they scored 42 points in the fourth quarter the last time the teams played. You know, before the Mavs made their big trade.
    ing Dirk can't be looked at or a foul is called when he plays the Spurs.

  3. #78
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    I hope RC will play then the Kidd-Roddy backcourt. Roddy had great games playing beside Kidd and Roddy could give Parker a run.

    Roddy-Parker
    Kidd/Marion - Hill/Gino

    I hope Barea gets the DNP hammer.



    Huh? Check the stats of Anthony, James or Durant in their games against the Mavs. Marion completly outplayed Anthony on both sides of the court. Just as example. Gino had great last weeks but he will have a tough matchup against Marion.
    Marion can't guard Manu. This isn't the same Marion that used to guard TP back in the days.

  4. #79
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    Marion can't guard Manu. This isn't the same Marion that used to guard TP back in the days.
    He has flat out shut down Lebron, Kobe, and Melo all season. But you wouldn't know that since you haven't been watching.

  5. #80
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    Mavs have had more injury issues this year than the Spurs.

    Parker's loss wasn't that big a deal. Hill picked up the slack and it just meant Manu would have the ball in his hands more, which ain't a bad thing. .

    Mavs on other hand had to use Gooden/Najera at center at times this year, which really hurt the defense for long stretches .

  6. #81
    Believe. nadroj117's Avatar
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    Mavs have had more injury issues this year than the Spurs.

    Parker's loss wasn't that big a deal. Hill picked up the slack and it just meant Manu would have the ball in his hands more, which ain't a bad thing. .

    Mavs on other hand had to use Gooden/Najera at center at times this year, which really hurt the defense for long stretches .
    Who has been injured? Dirk has played 79 games, Kidd 78, Terry 75, Marion 73... your center Damp who isn't much of a factor ever? Parker 54 games... Damp 53 games ... yeah I guess those to are pretty much a wash lol... and I love how you tried to justify parker doesn't really count, not a big deal... thats like saying its not a big deal if kidd was off ur team, or gasol off of lakers.

  7. #82
    Veteran Danny.Zhu's Avatar
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    I hope we could avoid Lakers and Mavs in the first round, during which Parker could be more comfortable in the system after the injury.

  8. #83
    Pop took his brain back. xellos88330's Avatar
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    Huh? Check the stats of Anthony, James or Durant in their games against the Mavs. Marion completly outplayed Anthony on both sides of the court. Just as example. Gino had great last weeks but he will have a tough matchup against Marion.
    This is what happens when Marion meets Manu.



  9. #84
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    This is what happens when Marion meets Manu.
    In the first one, the primary defenders are Josh Howard and Drew Gooden.

    The second one is on a fast break. I would sure like to see Ginobili try to stop Marion on a fast break.

  10. #85
    Pop took his brain back. xellos88330's Avatar
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    In the first one, the primary defenders are Josh Howard and Drew Gooden.

    The second one is on a fast break. I would sure like to see Ginobili try to stop Marion on a fast break.




    I think these guys are better on the break than Marion is. Careful what you wish for.

    You need a team to defend Manu. Marion did the right thing, but couldn't stop Manu. He is lucky Manu didn't posterize him. Kinda like this...

    Last edited by xellos88330; 04-13-2010 at 03:29 AM.

  11. #86
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    Marion doesn't need to dribble on the break. Ginobili ain't stopping this:


  12. #87
    Pop took his brain back. xellos88330's Avatar
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    Marion doesn't need to dribble on the break. Ginobili ain't stopping this:
    That is because Marion needs someone else to create for him. Manu can block an oop btw.

    Poor Tyson Chandler.


  13. #88
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    That is because Marion needs someone else to create for him.
    So?

  14. #89
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    And that's a ty oop. A foot below the rim.

  15. #90
    Pop took his brain back. xellos88330's Avatar
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    And that's a ty oop. A foot below the rim.
    The rim is still 10 feet. Doesn't matter where the ball is thrown. The ball has to go through the basket at 10 ft regardless. At one point it is always blockable.

    I hate to use this but this is a good example of what I am talking about.



    The ball has to come down sooner or later.

  16. #91
    Pop took his brain back. xellos88330's Avatar
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    One more thing. I am not saying that these things are guaranteed to happen. I am just stating that Manu is very unpredictable and very hard to defend. To think Marion could shut him down completely is nonsense. You can only hope to contain Manu. Containing him normally takes a team effort, not the defense of one man.

  17. #92
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    I guess Manu is better than Kobe and Melo then, cause they couldn't do anything against him.

  18. #93
    Spur Forever urunobili's Avatar
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    can't ing wait to get some payback

  19. #94
    OG Spurs fan TheChillFactor's Avatar
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    i almost feel bad for Dallas fan. They're about to find out what "playoff Shawn Marion" is all about and they have no ing idea....

  20. #95
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    Both teams have had significant changes to their lineups so going by previous results has less relevance than usual. I think Josh Howard would have strong games vs. the Spurs and he's gone so that's different. Butler and Haywood are capable. But in the end, its going to come down a lot to how well the Spurs can defend Dirk. That's half the battle right there.

  21. #96
    "The ball don't lie." dbestpro's Avatar
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    Win or lose it very well may be the Mavs. If htis is the case should San Antonio hand the last game to Dallas, so we can keep LA in sight for WCF instead of 2nd round?

  22. #97
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    Win or lose it very well may be the Mavs. If htis is the case should San Antonio hand the last game to Dallas, so we can keep LA in sight for WCF instead of 2nd round?
    This is way off.

    First off, the Spurs are either #6 or #7, so they're opposite the LA bracket no matter what happens. Besides, why are you still scared of them?

    Second, the Spurs have no reason to tank. Spurs loss means they stay in Dallas for Game 1, which could still happen even if they win. But a win might land them with Denver, which they probably want. They could also face Utah or Phoenix. Mavs might tank if they want an outside shot at facing Portland.

  23. #98
    Proud Silver Medalist Doug Collins's Avatar
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    Mavs fan shouldn't count on Marion for anything in the playoffs, especially against the spurs. He has a very distinguished history of choking against us.

    That being said, the Spurs are very much the underdogs regardless of "margin of victory" which doesn't take into account the Mavs supreme confidence against us and that they have HCA. Mavs live to beat the Spurs and have the pieces to do it. I think it'll be a close hard fought series, should they play, but the Mavs will definitely be the favorites.

  24. #99
    Big like a pickle. Shank's Avatar
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    lol Nets
    lol Grizzlies

    Mavs create matchup problems and have the mental edge. If there's one team this Mavs squad doesn't fear, it's San Antonio. At most, it would go 6 games. Calling Mavs in 5.

  25. #100
    Veteran bigfan's Avatar
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    I vote we rest Tim, Manu and Tony in the last regular season game since we will end up playing the Mavs anyway in the playoffs.

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