the Spurs CAN win a championship if all of these things happen:
-Splitter can have a somewhat reliable post-game, and more importantly have a big impact defensively.
-Richard Jefferson is able to make 38% of his threes at least (assumming he comes back). he has to be able to space the floor next year.
-Anderson can not only hit the 3 consistently (38%), but also be a very good defensive player.
-George Hill does what he did last year offensively (maybe be a little more aggressive), but becomes the type of defender many people thought he could be.
-DeJuan Blair improves in a variety of ways.
-The Big 3 stay healthy. the health of each one has an effect on the other two, esp. if it's Tim and Manu that have to carry the load.
if all these things happen, the Spurs can win next year. it's not like asking any of those things isn't plausable. it's just not likely.
the Spurs def. won't go into next year contenders. they'll have to prove it as the year goes on bec. there's a lot that's up in the air (the things i listed).