You're seriously smoking something if you think this one is going to be easy.
If you've been watching carefully for the last few years, you've undoubtedly noted a few things that are true:
1. Tony Parker struggles on both ends against big, strong guards.
2. Manu Ginobili is a good, but not a great jumpshooter. He's best when he's penetrating.
3. There are actually a few guys in the NBA who defend Tim Duncan well.
4. Neither Rasho Nesterovic nor Nazr Mohammed is a consistent offensive force and each struggles to rebound against big bodied rebounders.
5. The Spurs score well and easily against poor defensive teams, but stagnate and struggle against teams that don't have to double the post.
Now, as it relates to this series, how do those things come into play?
1. The Pistons have a big, strong guard who has largely dominated Tony Parker in head-to-head matchups. CHECK.
2. Like the Lakers last year, and better than the Nuggets or Sonics could (based on personnel) the Pistons should be able to effectively clog the lane and deny penetration to Manu, turning him mostly into a jump shooter in half court sets. CHECK
3. Rasheed Wallace has, throughout his career, defended Tim Duncan better than any player in the NBA. In their only playoff matchup (1999 WCF), Wallace held Duncan to under 17 ppg and under 10 rpg. CHECK.
4. With the bruisers the Pistons have in the paint (Ben Wallace, Elden Campbell, etc) Nazr and Rasho are going to have to hold their own on the glass or they will be, essentially negated and very easily. CHECK
5. Detroit's bigs are good enough that they won't have to double Tim on the block. And Larry Brown has shown that he is unwilling to double dominant bigs in the post except in the most dire cir stances. That means no doubles on Tim; that means no open looks at 3 from the perimeter (or very few) unless the Spurs really move the ball. They've not shown a consistent willingness to do that on a regular basis. CHECK.
I'm not saying that the Spurs are done or won't win; but I am saying that this series has the potential to be ridiculously tight.