Chance of game 6 victory?

[dn0774]

The offense is due for a breakout game imo...our 3's have to fall eventually. If we can keep our turnovers down and Parker can actually finish at the rim we'll be fine. Parker needs to win his matchup with Conley decisively.

[kaji157]

I wouldnt be so optimistic.
I think we are clearly underdogs here, at most i give us 40% chance of victory. We have just won 2 out of 5 so that's pretty logical.
That 40% chances depend on many things, we need solid nights from a lot of players and one or two have to excel.
We need to get back to our basics, i know pop thinks Manu would save him more often than not, but also moving the ball better wouldnt hurt, this Memphis team runs a lot on defense, covering spaces, we have to move the ball a lot more, ala 2007.
On defense McDyess, Duncan and Splitter need to at least play as they played yesterday, Splitter seems to me to be the one with best chances against Gasol, not so much about Z-Bo, i would make that swich, or at least try it when McDyess is on Z-Bo to see what happens.
Also we have to run more, this Memphis team is very good when their defense is set, Tony and Hill having their confidence back up will help in that regard, Jefferson is still missing, maybe he finds some mojo and also helps here a bit.

All in all, a lot of things have to fall in their place for us to win, i will think that we will loose, because everytime i thought we were going to win, we lost, and yesterday was the oposite and we won, so i will stick to my looser mentality, just to help the team the only way i can.

Don't hate me, i hate for the good of the team.

[Waps1980]

What if Manu fired 1st then Neal fired the 2nd round that busted the Grizz up.
There shots just might not fall like they have done all series, the Grizz had the game won to only have it ripped away.
What does that feeling do to a team its got to get some kind of emotional rollercoaster going, possible derail the bloody thing.

Great chance in game 6

Geez they only won game 1 & 3 by scoring a 3 pointer in the last minute of each game.
Spurs have a good chance 60% I say of taking game 6.
We have nothing to lose seen as we never should have got to game 6, its like a free round, our guys are going to come out fully loaded.

[alchemist]

"We don't want to go back" to San Antonio, Randolph said.

honestly this is the real game 7. The Grizz know that if they lose Game 6 they won't get another W this series. For the Spurs obviously if they lose there's no other day to play.

I expect this game to be a slug fest, the Spurs don't want it to end like this. Neither do the Grizz. One for ages.

[Mugen]

0-4 in Memphis this year. They are due.

[Spurs Brazil]

100%

1.

[TE]

It's time to nut up, or shut the up.


If the Spurs can't win tomorrow, then they never deserved to win a le this year.

[Chaz]

%51

[fotan2]

game 6 : 1%
game 7 : 99%

if memphis blows their 99% winable game on frieday, just don't bother playing game 7.

[jack0fspeed]

Mavericks pulled off the dramatic G5 win vs GSW in 2007 to pull to 2-3...then lost by 25 in G6.

I see the same happening here.

[Johnny RIngo]

5% - Too many gutless cowards on this Spurs team(Jefferson, Bonner, Hill, Blair). I expect all four of them to play like on Friday.

[1Parker1]

Game will start off close in the first half and I think the Grizz will pull away in the 3rd and 4th.

Spurs were in a do or die situation on their own homecourt after winning 61 games and the Grizz took their best punch when the Spurs went up 16....and the Grizz calmly came back. I don't know what the heck Hollins tells his team at halftime--but every game it seems to do the trick.

It will take a miracle part deux for the Spurs to win tommorow night in Memphis. I just don't have confidence in the role players (specifically Hill and Bonner and RJ) to be effective on the road. And Tim Duncan isn't going to magically give us 25 and 10 like the old days. The only hope I can think of is that the Grizz are due for a poor shooting night...but I doubt it'll happen against the Spurs porous defense.

[Man In Black]

As long as Bonner & Jefferson play limited minutes, that Hill replicates his 4th quarter performance, and McDyess doesn't try any hero-type passes...then I think the Spurs can gut out a W in Memphis. I'm hoping Tim turns back the clock and gives us a 20-10-5 game but I must give Memphis credit for how hard they are playing. Spurs need to be even more physical than them and they need to SHOW it. Make the dog whimper back to the crate.

[ElNono]

It will depend on the 3 point lottery... if we have an inspired night from outside and the balls to jack them up even with people coming at you, we might luck out...

If we shot like the rest of the series (with the exception of the last 5 seconds of Q4 G5), I'll say it's pretty much a done deal.

[ElNono]

As long as Bonner & Jefferson play limited minutes, that Hill replicates his 4th quarter performance, and McDyess doesn't try any hero-type passes...then I think the Spurs can gut out a W in Memphis. I'm hoping Tim turns back the clock and gives us a 20-10-5 game but I must give Memphis credit for how hard they are playing. Spurs need to be even more physical than them and they need to SHOW it. Make the dog whimper back to the crate.

It's tough to be overly physical on the road...

[Obstructed_View]

The bad news: The Spurs haven't played a great game in probably close to 2 months. They haven't played a 48 minute game in God knows how long. They haven't been able to execute consistently at the end of games in over a month, and now they've suddenly rediscovered the inability to come out after halftime with any intensity.

The good news: Parker is getting assists, not turning the ball over as badly, and rediscovered both his midrange jumper and his killer instinct at the end of game five. The Spurs are playing better defense in general than most of us thought they could. They showed some ability to get three point attempts for a change, and the pressure should now be on Memphis instead of San Antonio, who really have nothing to lose tomorrow and can play loose.

Still missing the entire bench this postseason and the three point percentage, which were supposed to be the biggest strengths of the team. I say 25% at best.

[ezau]

That is the most worrisome thing about Game 5. The Spurs built a 15 point lead and Memphis just stayed calm and went to work eroding it.

Without a miracle, we're talking offseason after spitting the bit in a must-have home game.

Memphis was playing without any pressure because they were up 3-1. Now that they have to close out the Spurs after a game that they should have won, the pressure is going to affect them next game.

[chasky]

Game Six: 1/3.
Game Seven: 2/3.

Win the Series = 1/3*2/3 = 2/9 ~= 0.22.

Aprox. the same % of Tony missing FT's.

[Man In Black]

It's tough to be overly physical on the road...

Memphis hasn't had a problem with playing that way, neither should the Spurs.
I would prefer that Silver & Black go down fighting Alamo style than choose the soft as Charmin White Flag route. They can't call every foul. But it starts with personnel. If Bonner's turnstile defense is in the game for more than 15 minutes, that white flag is being raised.
The Spurs need to go hard and
They do that and then we can pull this series even. The Spurs have forced Game 7's being down 3-1. It's high time they won one.

[Obstructed_View]

If the Spurs play for 48 minutes, 100% both games, it's as simple as that. When the Spurs are on, the Grizzlies can't beat us.

Agreed, but what are the chances that the Spurs play for 48 minutes for two games?

[all_heart]

Spurs got to play hard nosed D for 48 minutes, something they have done in short spurts in a few games. They should double Z-Bo early and force Memphis to pass the ball and hit long range shots. Make them work hard for their points. This should help wear them down and make it that much harder to play good D on the Spurs. Nobody is due for anything, they need to work hard for a victory tomorrow.

[Spurminator]

I still hold to a, perhaps naive, view that the Spurs are the better team, and as such will always have the better chance of winning as long as they don't screw themselves. Guess we'll see.

51%.

[024]

the 50% estimates are way too high. spurs have yet to show in any of the games how they plan on beating the grizzlies. even in a game 5 elimination in home court, the spurs got outplayed in the second half and required two miracle heaves just to stay in the game. by the time OT came around, the grizzlies finally said it and decided to close this series back at home. if the grizzlies can out play the spurs so hard in the second half of a pretty meaningless game to them, they will bring the pain in a game 6 back at home. odds of SA winning is 30%.

[TDMVPDPOY]

only wat to win, execute and attack the rim get them bigs into early foul trouble

[siraulo23]

For me this has been a 50/50 series; in terms of all the 50/50 balls (A loose ball contested by a player from each team, where neither is considered favorite to reach the ball first). Pretty much the entire series, the Grizzlies have gotten to these "50/50" balls, whether that be rebounds, loose balls, baskets where the ball seems to touch every part of the rim before falling in, etc.

If the Spurs can limit the Grizzlies to even half of those 50/50s, the Spurs chances of a Game 6 victory will increase exponentially.

pisses me off the most, how many of them do they average in a game?