Championship Odds

[bluebellmaniac]

Playoff Back to Backs: Possible in second round

http://www.nba.com/2011/news/11/27/schedule/index.html

If the article mentioned playoff b2b games, it would appear it has since been updated with the playoff b2b removed.

?????

[Mel_13]

If the article mentioned playoff b2b games, it would appear it has since been updated with the playoff b2b removed.

?????

I believe you are correct:

http://www.nba.com/news/key-dates/index.html

[Fabbs]

If the article mentioned playoff b2b games, it would appear it has since been updated with the playoff b2b removed.

?????

thank you.
One intelligent courteous post >>>>>>>> an infinite amount of trollPopper posts.

[TD 21]

Hint: When you claim someone lacks reading comprehension, you shouldn't then reinforce the point they just made.

You didn't make any point, though. All you did was make something up.

[objective]

My take is that the Spurs odds to win it all will all hinge greatly on if they can overcome the "POP MOMENT" that looks like it will come early in the playoffs.

The POP MOMENT is first set up by refusing to play those players who give them the best chance to win (or at least couldn't hurt to try) while insisting on playing guys who can't help at all.

The POP MOMENT is when the Spurs backs are against the wall and it finally dawns on Pop that he HAS to do something different, and finally changes his ways to play the proper players.

Previous POP MOMENTs have finally putting in George Hill in as a rookie and finally allowing Splitter to play, or to a smaller degree, putting in Steve Kerr in 03.

One big problem with the POP MOMENT is that it often comes to late to save the season. Even after finally coming to reason, the team is too far in the hole and not talented enough to overcome the position they were put in (like Splitter and Hill). It worked thankfully with the 03 team because the rest of the team was talented enough to use that POP MOMENT as a stepping stone to victory.

One other problem is, "What if the moment never comes?". What if Pop refuses? If Stephen Jackson is inactive for the playoffs while Terry Porter trips all over himself? If Van Exel still gets brutalizing minutes? If guys with heart like Hairston are never allowed to play? What if the moment is ruined because Pop refused to get Splitter in basketball shape or teamed with Duncan?

---

To me, the most important moment will come when Blair becomes the glaring, obvious weak link even to Pop as the starter. It might happen when the Spurs are tied 2-2, or down 3-1. If Blair is still starting in the playoffs, it will happen. Then the POP MOMENT and the right choice will be to start Diaw. The wrong choice would be to start Bonner.

This year, I think the Spurs have enough talent if healthy to claw back a victory in a series after the POP MOMENT of making Diaw the starter over Blair. And from there, after that defining series in round 1 or round 2, is when the Spurs become a legit le contending powerhouse and their odds go up, way up.

And that's how I see the odds working.

Without that moment of clarity and POP MOMENT of making Diaw the starter and bulk minutes player over Blair, their chances are slim, very slim. 1-3%. AFTER the moment, the odds shoot up, way up if they escape the series, say 25-40% in my estimation.

Smaller moments will involve keeping Bonner's minutes to no more than 4th big, the choice of who starts on the wings and who plays back-up point. But the Blair issue is by far the biggest, on par with refusing to play Splitter last year because it "wouldn't be fair to the team".

[Nathan89]

Waiting for the new odds with the new starter(Diaw).

50% imhho (In my humble honest opinion)

[TheSkeptic]

Waiting for the new odds with the new starter(Diaw).

50% imhho (In my humble honest opinion)

I have to say I'm liking their chances better now that Blair's not in the line-up.

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

I'm massively oversimplifying and using stats incorrectly, but I give us a 25% chance as we are one of the 4 teams I think can win the le (along with OKC, Bulls, Heat). I'm also being very optimistic.

[pgardn]

Miami +135
Chicago +300
OKC +350
San Antonio +900
LA +950
Clips +1050
Mavs +2000
NY +3000

[Splits]

Miami +135
Chicago +300
OKC +350
San Antonio +900
LA +950
Clips +1050
Mavs +2000
NY +3000

Which site is still giving 9-1??? I'll take those odds, rest of Vegas is at 7-1

[timvp]

Bump.

With the playoffs about to start, I'll go ahead and update these numbers. Since more time has past, I'd lower San Antonio's chances of suffering a debilitating injury from 50% to 40%. The Spurs also got a good bracket draw so I'll raise their chances of winning in the first round to 95% and in the second round to 70%.

Staying healthy for the next two months: 60%
If healthy, advancing past the first round: 95%
If healthy, advancing past the second round: 70%
If healthy, advancing past the WCF: 55%
If healthy, winning the Finals: 50%

So, that's basically an 11% chance to win the championship. Long odds but considering how unlikely a championship appeared to be at the beginning of the season, I'll definitely take it.

[Slutter McGee]

I would say we have about a 13% or 14% chance. I like timvp's simplistic formula based on observations. I generally agree with it, but I think you also have to factor in other teams possible health issues. I think the possibility of opposing team's injuries negating ours brings it up a few percentage points.

Sincerely,

ter McGee

[honestfool84]

Bump.

With the playoffs about to start, I'll go ahead and update these numbers. Since more time has past, I'd lower San Antonio's chances of suffering a debilitating injury from 50% to 40%. The Spurs also got a good bracket draw so I'll raise their chances of winning in the first round to 95% and in the second round to 70%.

Staying healthy for the next two months: 60%
If healthy, advancing past the first round: 95%
If healthy, advancing past the second round: 70%
If healthy, advancing past the WCF: 55%
If healthy, winning the Finals: 50%

So, that's basically an 11% chance to win the championship. Long odds but considering how unlikely a championship appeared to be at the beginning of the season, I'll definitely take it.

how do you get 11%? i am confused how you are calculating these numbers.


not that i am doubting them, just curious.

[tmtcsc]

Tbh, that was the reason why I made this thread. There's no doubt that 20% is way too high right now but somewhere between 3-7% isn't too unreasonable and a huge improvement.

If we are at 3 - 7 % and have the best record in the league, how in the world does 97-93% get divied up between 15 other teams? What did I miss ?

[timvp]

how do you get 11%? i am confused how you are calculating these numbers.

You just have to multiply all those percentages together to figure out the overall percentage.

.6 X .95 X .7 X .55 X . 5 = .109725 = ~11%





For the record, here are AccuScore's percentages of the Spurs winning each series. AccuScore has been pretty accurate in previous years. They even gave the Mavs a good shot at winning last year before the playoffs began.

Spurs chances to win series
93% vs. Jazz
87% vs. Nuggets
86% vs. Clippers
86% vs. Knicks
84% vs. Mavs
80% vs. Grizzlies
78% vs. Lakers
71% vs. Pacers
53% vs. Heat
51% vs. Bulls
49% vs. Thunder

The only team AccuScore sees the Spurs as an underdog against is the Thunder. Those numbers aren't too out of line with what I think. AccuScore gives the Spurs even better odds against the Grizzlies and thinks the Spurs would be favorites in the Finals.

Not factoring in injuries, AccuScore gives the Spurs an 18.6% chance of winning the championship even if San Antonio travels the hardest possible road.

(To compare, if you don't factor in injuries, I have the Spurs at about 18.3% ... which is pretty darn close.)

[Whisky Dog]

18.3%... Looks like Hollinger had it closer to right with that 20% a few weeks ago.

IMO the only teams who could have a better % chance of winning the le are the Bulls and Heat, but probably should still be a little lower since they theoretically will have to play each other to get there.

The Thunder have injury concerns and have been lackluster the last few weeks which lowers their chances below the Spurs IMO. We really need the Mavs to pull the shocker then we take care of business every round.

[spursfaninla]

Did you account for the other teams being at a higher than normal injury risk, especially considering that the best players from the Bulls and Heat have been injured recently?

Also, I think 40% of injury is way too high. Although Manu has proven to be injury-prone over the years, and has fallen in or around the playoffs consistently in recent years, some of those injuries are flukes (nose.)

Also, I think Manu has adjusted his style of play by taking so many 3pt shots; that has to reduce the chances for injury.

Lastly, because of our depth, we really can continue to manage minutes relatively in the playoffs, and that has to reduce the chance of injury.

Even so, manu missed lots of time this year already, so I understand your high-risk calculation.

I see your assigning such a high chance of injury as "emotional self-protection" hedging.

[Seventyniner]

According to the Accuscore numbers in ESPN's NBA Playoff Predictor, I calculated these probabilities for the Spurs (in parentheses are the implied money lines):

Win 1st round: 93% (-1329)
Win 2nd round: 76.5% (-325)
Win 2nd round given a 1st round win: 82.3%
Win WCF: 46.7% (+114)
Win WCF given 2nd round win: 61.1%
Win le: 28.4% (+252)
Win le given WCF win: 60.8%

I took into account nearly every matchup. The only ones I left out were Spurs vs. ATL/ORL/PHI in the Finals. Those 3 teams only have a 3.6% combined chance of making the Finals anyway, so I assumed the Spurs woud have a 95% chance to beat any of them.

There might be some good bets here...

Remember, kids, these numbers are provided for entertainment purposes only. I do not endorse illegal gambling.

[z0sa]

Timvp giving Spurs good odds now? This might just be the cake talking... but let's celebrate.

[roycrikside]

Prior to the season, I went on record as saying the Spurs had only a 3% chance to win a championship. After Manu's early season injury and observing the fact that RJ had lost about four steps during the lockout, I lowered San Antonio's chances to 1%.

Honestly, looking back on it, I think both of those numbers were too high. I was pessimistic but not pessimistic enough. No team that relied on RJ and didn't have anything resembling a fifth bigman was going to win a championship. I guess the homer in me couldn't drop the Spurs all the way down to 0%.

Now, after the midseason makeover, I believe there's reason for optimism. IMO, here are those general reasons in order:

1. The Big 3 appears capable of turning back the clock, at least in spurts.

2. RJ's non-compe iveness no longer eats 30 minutes per night.

3. Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green have blossomed.

4. An extreme compe or has been added in Stephen Jackson.

5. Boris Diaw gives the Spurs another quality bigman option.

6. Their peak appears to be better timed this season.

What are the Spurs' chances to win a fifth NBA championship this season? The first hurdle is obviously health. No matter how well the Spurs are playing now, it will all come crumbling down if one of the Big 3 gets injured. And since all three are more injury prone than ever, that's a legit concern.

In a glass half full scenario, I'll give the Spurs these odds:

Staying healthy for the next two and a half months: 50%
If healthy, advancing past the first round: 90%
If healthy, advancing past the second round: 60%
If healthy, advancing past the WCF: 55%
If healthy, winning the Finals: 50%

I think that is fair for an optimistic look at things. If healthy, this team really shouldn't lose in the first round. It appears as if they'll have HCA in the second round, so they should be favored. If the Spurs make it to the WCF, that means they are playing well ... and that's when their experience would hypothetically kick in. In the Finals, the Spurs would likely be an underdog but, again, if they make it that far, I'd be confident in their experiencing playing a large role.

Add it up and that gives the Spurs a 7.4% of winning a championship this season when viewing things in a glass half full manner. That's not a great percentage but considering I had them at 1% not that long ago, I'll certainly take it.

BUMP.

I think it's time revise the percentages, now that one round is out of the way, everyone's still healthy, and the only team that could've possibly had home court on us, the Bulls are essentially a non-factor because of their injuries.

Staying healthy for the next three series (factoring in the rest we got after the sweep to heal lingering bumps and bruises): 60%

Advancing past the second round (factoring the health/wear-and-tear/quality of our opponents): 80%

If healthy, advancing past the WCF (pretty much the Thunder, you have to think): 60%

If healthy, winning the Finals (Heat, yes?): 55%.


My conservative estimate is that we've pretty much doubled our odds, to 15.8%, pretty much a 1 in 6.3 chance.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

We need to stop being so y, the basketball gods don't like spurs bombast

[Nathan89]

BUMP.

I think it's time revise the percentages, now that one round is out of the way, everyone's still healthy, and the only team that could've possibly had home court on us, the Bulls are essentially a non-factor because of their injuries.

Staying healthy for the next three series (factoring in the rest we got after the sweep to heal lingering bumps and bruises): 60%

Advancing past the second round (factoring the health/wear-and-tear/quality of our opponents): 80%

If healthy, advancing past the WCF (pretty much the Thunder, you have to think): 60%

If healthy, winning the Finals (Heat, yes?): 55%.


My conservative estimate is that we've pretty much doubled our odds, to 15.8%, pretty much a 1 in 6.3 chance.

80%, 60%, and 55% is not very conservative imo.

[DMC]

Staying healthy for the next three series (factoring in the rest we got after the sweep to heal lingering bumps and bruises): 40%

Advancing past the second round (factoring the health/wear-and-tear/quality of our opponents): 50%

If healthy, advancing past the WCF (pretty much the Thunder, you have to think): 40%

If healthy, winning the Finals (Heat, yes?): 40%.

If you can actually give odds for that kind of thing, that is.

My gut feeling after watching this team all season is that they get to the WCF at most.

[Splits]

Vegas Odds for the chip:

MIA: +120
SAS: +225
OKC: +400

[Brazil]

Im waiting for a thread saying spurs going to sweep OKC and Miami tbh

Quite surprised to not have seen yet a thread like spurs can sweep everybody