Reasonable Pickups at Small Forward

[Kori Ellis]

Little bit different than punching your GF in the face and shooting at her, don'cha think?

But Griffin has already done that too, right?

[Marcus Bryant]

Griffin's accomplished a little bit more than that, IIRC.

[sickdsm]

My point is to say that he's regressed is ludicris. The law's the law but his breaking probation is very minor to me. To say that bc of that he has a problem with drugs and authority?

[wildbill2u]

Translation: He was in the strip club parking lot when two guys got into a fight with each other. He was not involved.

Little bit different than punching your GF in the face and shooting at her, don'cha think?

Sure, but one of the conditions of his parole was to stay out of drinking spots, no drinking at all (in addition to other drugs) and no associating with bad guys. These are standard conditions of parole.

I don't think the judge would have put him in jail for breaking parole if he was just walking by the location when a fight broke out, do you?

[picnroll]

At A Kings site it was posted that Matt Barnes said at a Bibby camp he would likely end up with the Kings or Spurs. Said he preferred the Kings (he's a local kid form Sacramento I believe). Spurs certainly wanted him last year.

[wildbill2u]

I really hadn't thought GRob was a viable signee--but just read his statements in another thread which are positive about the three most important questions:
1. He loves the Spurs and the organization and had fun again playing here.
2. He's willing to play a role behind Bowen. I think he realizes he'll get some quality minutes if he signs here.
3. He apparently is willing to forego a big contract. Maybe there haven't been any legitimate takers so he's only being realistic, but he has to know the Spurs limited money situation.
4. He will buy into the 'defense first' system. That's hard to do for an offensive-minded player.

5. I always discount when a player says, "I'm not a cancer or a head case" but there weren't any rumblings from the team or management so maybe we can take him at his word.

[timvp]

At A Kings site it was posted that Matt Barnes said at a Bibby camp he would likely end up with the Kings or Spurs. Said he preferred the Kings (he's a local kid form Sacramento I believe). Spurs certainly wanted him last year.

Interesting. He was the player the Spurs wanted before they got Tha Third.

If the Spurs are still interested, they must see some real potential in him.

[ace3g]

I remember watching a few SAC games when Maurice Evans was playing, I like that kid he has alot of talent

[ace3g]

I think I remember reading an article a couple of days ago somewhere(it was an old article) from a Euro Site about some of the best prospects and Maurice Evans was one of them, I guess he played overseas

[sickdsm]

Sure, but one of the conditions of his parole was to stay out of drinking spots, no drinking at all (in addition to other drugs) and no associating with bad guys. These are standard conditions of parole.

I don't think the judge would have put him in jail for breaking parole if he was just walking by the location when a fight broke out, do you?

No, that's why the judge didn't decide. He had to option of a "no contest" type thing where he could take the 15 days in jail or have a hearing to decide if he did violate his probation. Whats he supposed to do? Fight it? He's a witness, the cops were right there talking to him, thats a violation in itself. I'm sure one all of the guys there told the cops that he was right beside them, watching the dancers.


You DO realize that many if not all states, after a DUI conviction state you can't be in ANY alcohol serving establishment? You could violate by having a steak if they wanted to be anal about it.


If you thought of me as getting cleaned up before i got cuffed with the Heinz 57 sauce in my hand, why on earth would you even think i'd have a problem with authority/drugs after?

It just seems like a comment an old out of touch person would say. Someone has there pants baggy or long hair.

"they have to be on drugs"

[BigDiggyD]

Ok so this is a subject that is near and dear to my heart. I, like many posters, feel that finding the potential future at SF is the Spurs most pressing need. Bowen is the most long in the tooth starter we have and there are no other pressing needs in the starting 5 or bench and our #1 option for the future behind Bowen lacks his size and has question marks about his health (assuming he is signed at all). I for one saw a decline in Bowens overall performance on defense this year, which may be attributed to losing a fraction of a step due to age, or could be attributed to rules changes/enforcements.

I don't feel that you have to try to find the next Bruce Bowen, extra contribution in other facets of the game can make up for a lack of Bowens defensive prowess. I do want someone who displays willingness and effort on defense however.

I have decided on two things. 1) I am going to try and take as much of my own personal bias out of finding candidates to replace Bowen and let the statistical performance do the talking 2) I am going to break down SF targets into three areas... Low Hanging Fruit, Trespass Fruit, and Exchange Fruit. The only difference between these fruit is their current status. Low Hanging are Unrestricted and can be signed with no fuss, Trespass are Restricted and the previous team can match, and Exchange are under contract with another team and will require a trade.

The similar criteria I have for all of these are this.

• Must have played most or second most of his games at SF
• Must be 6'5" or taller
• Must have been born on or after 1976 (28-29 years old max otherwise give me Glenn Robinson back and see me in another 1-2 years)
• Must have played at least 250 minutes last year

Since this is the LHF group these must all be listed as Unrestricted Free Agents (using nba.com and any updates I can find on status)

This is the group I am left with in alphabetical order

Rodney Buford
Eddie Griffin
Ryan Humphrey
Casey Jacobsen
DerMarr Johnson
Bostjan Nachbar
Scott Padgett
Laron Profit
Kareem Rush
Rodney White

Now my criteria for ranking them was in the following categories.
PER rating (John Hollinger)
Offensive and Defensive +/- (82games)
Previous years salary
Efficiency/Game (NBA)
Effeciency/48 Minutes (Kevin Pelton)
Modified Diamond Rating (Kevin Broom, Kevin Pelton, Me)

So basically we rate them at their overall statistical performance summed up in one number (PER), their apparent contribution to the teams performance, which helps measure some of the items not currently recorded statistically (screens, picks, charges, contested shots) (82games Off and Def +/-), signability based on previous salary history, all the positives they bring minus the negatives (Efficiency), and finally what the chances are that they are due for a breakout year, which basically takes into consideration if they are really productive during the time they are on the floor and just don’t see enough minutes due to whatever factors.

There are some deficiencies in this right off the top of my head.

1) Lack of adequate available statistics to better measure defensive ability
2) Previous salary wont have much to do with future salary (but I wanted to eliminate those who are already out of our price range)
3) Lack of proper weights to all of these categories (working on refining this)
4) Doesn't take things such as personality and work ethic into consideration

Based on these categories here is the previous list ranked

1. Eddie Griffin
2. DerMarr Johnson
3. Scott Padgett
4. Laron Profit
5. Rodney White
6. Casey Jacobsen
7. Bostjan Nachbar
8. Kareem Rush
9. Ryan Humphrey
10. Rodney Buford

Here is the same list minus rankings for previous salary.

1. Eddie Griffin/Scott Padgett
2. DerMarr Johnson
3. Rodney White
4. Laron Profit
5. Bostjan Nachbar
6. Casey Jacobsen
7. Ryan Humphrey/Kareem Rush
8. Rodney Buford

Doing the eyeball test on these some things jump out. Padgett and White seem too thick to be the type of player we are looking for (Griffin and Humphrey falling into that category also to a smaller degree) and should be considered more of a PF/SF tweener. Perhaps I need to do some sort of Ht/Wt ratio but that may negatively impact those who are athletic for their size.

I will be continuing to tweak these as I go.

I have never felt that stats are a replacement for good old fashioned scouting but I think they are another piece of the puzzle and can sometimes give you people to consider that perhaps you haven’t before.

All feedback is certainly welcome.

I will do the RFA's and Trades soon.

[timvp]

Very good post, BigDiggyD. It's refreshing to see such a quality post out of the newer generation.

A couple points:

1) I didn't see a decline in Bowen's play. I thought that it was his best season defensively. He had more confidence and was a much better help team defender. That said, he probably doesn't have much more than two or three great years left.

2) Out of your list of players, I believe that Eddie Griffin and Bostjan Nachbar have agreed to terms with their former teams.

3) A name I'd add to that list is Theron Smith.

[mookie2001]

yeah id see we wait for bowen to actually get worse before we jump to find the next bruce
LJIII
sign him up

[BigDiggyD]

Very good post, BigDiggyD. It's refreshing to see such a quality post out of the newer generation.

A couple points:

1) I didn't see a decline in Bowen's play. I thought that it was his best season defensively. He had more confidence and was a much better help team defender. That said, he probably doesn't have much more than two or three great years left.

2) Out of your list of players, I believe that Eddie Griffin and Bostjan Nachbar have agreed to terms with their former teams.

3) A name I'd add to that list is Theron Smith.

Thanks timvp,

My take on Bowen is purely subjective. I have been a Spurs season ticket holder since 2000 and make it to about 40-42 games a year (add preseason, dont count playoffs). From watching him this year compared to at least the previous two years I felt I saw a decline. Still among the elite, but not as effective as before. Hard to back that up with stats since there simply arent any readily available that track what Bowen does on a court. The evidence on 82games.com does back me up a little bit as it shows that there was significantly less difference in defense per 100 possesions with Bowen on and off the court than there was in previous years. But their system is not without its faults and the overall teams defense has risen to such a level that perhaps Bowens contribution is not as noticeable as in years past statistically. It all could come down to my expectation level at this point perhaps having risen to unattainable heights.

If you can find me sites that show those two signed that would be cool because I don't see it where I have been looking.

I have Theron Listed as a RFA therefore he didn't make this list but will be in the next one.

Another name some might have noticed not there is LJIII. That is due to the limited minutes he played this year. I have toyed with the idea of using previous seasons for those that didnt qualify to make the list this year, or perhaps using career instead.

[Kori Ellis]

If you can find me sites that show those two signed that would be cool because I don't see it where I have been looking.

Eddie Griffin has not agreed to terms yet, but he is expected to.

Bostjan Nachbar agreed on the first day of free agency.

The only small forward on the roster is backup Bostjan Nachbar, who agreed to a contract with the Hornets 12 days ago.

http://www.nola.com/sports/t-p/index...0677225730.xml

[BigDiggyD]

OK I have elected to revise the LHF SF's to use their career instead to allow people like LJIII to be eligible. I have also removed previous contract from the equation. Additionally I am not satisfied with 1976 being the cutoff date for age so I bumped it to '77. Also I took out Nachbar as it was shown to me he has comitted.

Here is the result

1. Eddie Griffin
2. Rodney White
3. DerMarr Johnson
4. Linton Johnson III
5. Casey Jacobsen
6. Laron Profit
7. Kareem Rush
8. Rodney Buford
9. Damone Brown
10. Ryan Humphrey
11. Tamar Slay

If your were to break them into groupings Griffin is on a level by himself, White and D Johnson together, then LJIII, Jacobsen and Profit, 7-8, 9-10, and Slay all by himself at the bottom.

In terms of showing signs they could have a breakout year if they just got on the court more it goes

1. Griffin (kind of skewed by the fact he already gets a good # of minutes, Ginobli caused this anomaly in years past as well)
2. White
3. LJIII
4. Profit
5. D Johnson

Still working on collecting all the stats for the RFA's

[Chris]

LJIII would be cheap and has tons of potential. Defense, length, and streaky offense. Might as well pick up Big Dog as well if its going to be cheap.

[BigDiggyD]

LJIII would be cheap and has tons of potential. Defense, length, and streaky offense. Might as well pick up Big Dog as well if its going to be cheap.

You are right about that streaky business. I would watch him warm up well before game time and even going through shooting drills he would drain 5 or 6 in a row from different spots and then go on an extended dry spell where he shot like me . With the other shooters I watch they may go on a hot streak and nail some good runs (Barry and Horry were sometimes in the 10-15 + range from the three) then be on and off with a few here and a few there but LJIII without fail would get his hits and misses in big bunches.

[BigDiggyD]

OK.. I have run the numbers on the RFA SFs that meet the criteria I mentioned earlier in this thread. I have take out anyone who's contract last year was too rich to give SA a realistic chance at signing them. I am left with (alphabetical)

1. Matt Barnes
2. Keith Bogans
3. Devin Brown
4. Matt Carroll
5. Josh Davis
6. Maurice Evans
7. Richie Frahm
8. James Jones
9. Jason Kapono
10. Theron Smith
11. Gerald Wallace
12. Damien Wilkins

Based on an unweighted comparison of all factors the ranking is as follows.

1. Gerald Wallace (price?)
2. Matt Carroll (interesting)
3. Josh Davis (more of PF?)
4. Richie Frahm
5. Devin Brown
6. Maurice Evans/Jason Kapono
7. Matt Barnes
8. Damien Wilkins
9. Keith Bogans/James Jones
10. Theron Smith

In pure terms of a possible breakout year

1. Josh Davis
2. Richie Frahm
3. Gerald Wallace
4. Devin Brown
5. Matt Carroll
6. Maurice Evans
7. Damien Wilkins
8. Matt Barnes
9. Jason Kapono
10. James Jones
11. Theron Smith
12. Keith Bogans

Next task is trade targets.. and also combining both UFA and RFA into a single group

[Kori Ellis]

Nice breakdown. Just so you know, Matt Barnes and Josh Davis are unrestricted.

[Kori Ellis]

So is Theron Smith.

[BigDiggyD]

Thanks Kori.. do you have a better site than NBA.com to get that information? I am going off of their Free Agency page and it has all three of those listed as RFAs

[ace3g]

I was looking up info on theron smith, he looks like he has alot of potential

[Kori Ellis]

Thanks Kori.. do you have a better site than NBA.com to get that information? I am going off of their Free Agency page and it has all three of those listed as RFAs

They were all RFA's but they weren't given qualifying offers, etc. on July 1 so they became unrestricted.

I just use google to check.

http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/sports/12028469.htm

Reserve forwards Matt Barnes and Josh Davis are unrestricted free agents because the Sixers did not tender offers to them.

http://www.shelbystar.com/portal/ASP...e.asp?ID=17139

As for the team’s restricted free agents, Charlotte exercised the option on the second year of Bernard Robinson’s contract last Wednesday, two days after they made qualifying offers to Keith Bogans, Matt Carroll, Jason Kapono and Gerald Wallace.

Those four players can seek offers from other teams, but the Bobcats have the right to match whatever offer they might receive in free agency.

The team did not make a qualifying offer to Theron Smith and chose not to exercise its option on the contract of Tamar Slay.

[AI-square]

Yep, both Matt Barnes and Josh Davis are unrestricted free agents. After signing Dalembert, Korver and Green, I think it would be best for Philly if they keep either one of Barnes or Davis.

On a side note, I think Philly has the lowest average height in their roster.