2015 Spurs special enough to win 6 and overcome no HCA?

[cd021]

I expect the Spurs either lose in the 1st round or go to the Finals. The Clippers are as hot as the Spurs for the last month, and they also have several mismatches to their advantages. It will be a very tough 1st round.

I really don't think the Clippers have mismatches that they can exploit. Paul is going to have to guard Parker for 35 minutes and then carry the offense against Green, Cojo, & Kawhi. LAC has an atrocious bench (29th in the NBA) They will ,likely, play Paul-36 MPG, Red -30 MPG,-Crawford-32 MPG, Barnes-34 MPG, Griffin-36 MPG, Jordan-36 MPG. Spurs will probably play 10 or 11 players.

Duncan plays very well against Jordan and does a great job of taking away lobs. Parker can be hid on Red . Griffin can give us some problems. He can face up, drive and finish or draw contact. If Diaw starts, he can pull Griffin out of the paint on defense like Diaw does when he is matched up with ZBO. Run high screens with Duncan and Parker/Ginobili and have Diaw in the right corner with Griffin having to decide whether or not to help contain the drive or stay on Diaw.

[Malik Hairston]

I really don't think the Clippers have mismatches that they can exploit. Paul is going to have to guard Parker for 35 minutes and then carry the offense against Green, Cojo, & Kawhi. LAC has an atrocious bench (29th in the NBA) They will ,likely, play Paul-36 MPG, Red -30 MPG,-Crawford-32 MPG, Barnes-34 MPG, Griffin-36 MPG, Jordan-36 MPG. Spurs will probably play 10 or 11 players.

Duncan plays very well against Jordan and does a great job of taking away lobs. Parker can be hid on Red . Griffin can give us some problems. He can face up, drive and finish or draw contact. If Diaw starts, he can pull Griffin out of the paint on defense like Diaw does when he is matched up with ZBO. Run high screens with Duncan and Parker/Ginobili and have Diaw in the right corner with Griffin having to decide whether or not to help contain the drive or stay on Diaw.

Griffin is definitely a huge mismatch, especially without Splitter, but I agree otherwise..

The Spurs have huge mismatches in Leonard, Parker and the bench..while Parker isn't a mismatch on paper against Paul's elite defense, the key, like you said, is that Paul is gonna have to work on defense vs. Parker, while carrying the offense vs. Leonard and Green..playing 2-way playoff basketball is extremely difficult, and it's why you generally only see it from star players for short stretches in the post-season..

Unlike the Spurs, the Clippers don't have an alternative vs. Tony..their SF(Barnes) is an average defender that can't defend guards, their 2-guards(Red and Crawford) are terrible defensively, and they don't have any notable bench guys..

[Galileo]

The # 6 seeded 1995 Rockets won it all with 4 road series, against the four best teams in NBA by record that season. It can be done.

[TD 21]

I really don't think the Clippers have mismatches that they can exploit. Paul is going to have to guard Parker for 35 minutes and then carry the offense against Green, Cojo, & Kawhi. LAC has an atrocious bench (29th in the NBA) They will ,likely, play Paul-36 MPG, Red -30 MPG,-Crawford-32 MPG, Barnes-34 MPG, Griffin-36 MPG, Jordan-36 MPG. Spurs will probably play 10 or 11 players.

Duncan plays very well against Jordan and does a great job of taking away lobs. Parker can be hid on Red . Griffin can give us some problems. He can face up, drive and finish or draw contact. If Diaw starts, he can pull Griffin out of the paint on defense like Diaw does when he is matched up with ZBO. Run high screens with Duncan and Parker/Ginobili and have Diaw in the right corner with Griffin having to decide whether or not to help contain the drive or stay on Diaw.

Since Splitter will be on a minutes restriction (though I'm not sure how much more than can baby him than they normally do), Griffin will be a mismatch, as you and Harlem said. Since he's incapable of playing well unless he's completely healthy and in rhythm, don't expect much out of him in this series.

Unfortunately, I don't think this series is going to be about how well the Spurs match-up. If they're both in absolute peak form, the Spurs are better, but the Clippers are close enough that their motivation (3 straight years of being the 4th best team has equaled zero Conference Finals, plus they felt they gave away the Thunder series last year in game 5) and Paul's specifically (he, in particular, felt he gave said game away, plus he's at the tail end of his prime and is the greatest player to have never made even a Conference Finals), plus the Spurs fatigue and knowing they probably gave away their chance to repeat by dropping to sixth, will probably carry the day.

Their big three might average those minutes, since I'm sure they'll be a blowout or two to bring them down, but if it's relatively close throughout, they'll be playing more than that.

Re is not someone you "hide" on. Even though he's not a traditional shot creator, he's like a lesser Korver, in that his mere presence coming off of screens frees others for shots. Since he's in perpetual motion, he's extremely taxing to guard, which is why Green should be the primary defender and Parker should be hid on Barnes. If they even think about milking that match-up in the post, it's a win for the Spurs.

[100%duncan]

No...Spurs cannot win 3 straight series without HCA. Clippers in 5.

Last Seen: Game 2 of the 2014 NBA Finals. got.

[DMC]

They can. It's going to depend on how well Tiago plays if he plays. Pop might meddle a bit too much, but if he starts that it's because the team is suffering already. If the bench steps up, Pop won't need to tinker.

[Dre_7]

Dallas is going to beat Houston. Spurs will get one series at home. They will win it all and repeat for the first time ever.

[mexicanjunior]

Last Seen: Game 2 of the 2014 NBA Finals. got.

I've posted 25 times before the Pelicans game in 2015 alone...I don't get the "last seen" schtick.

[unleashbaynes]

If I'd have to rate the team right from 1 to 100..

Full Squad 86.

Minus Splitter 81

with Splitter but without Tony 89..

Houston, LA, are both in the in the 84-86 range..

Warriors 88

Wow, fascinating analysis.

[gameFACE]

On paper I don't see this team as overcoming that many lost HCA obstacles. My gut, too. You hear a lot of people say HCA isn't important with teams so close. That's actually the reason why it IS important.

But I've been wrong every year since 2011.

[spurs10]

HCA will be back to us after the first game. This ain't no foolin' around!

[PingPong]

The only scary team to the Spurs was a healthy OKC, tbh. Bin Beard is a chucker, Coward is too stupid to carry a team, no Beverley. LAC aways will be the junior team. Warriors have the Slash Brothers confident, the team is clicking, probably the biggest issue to the Spurs, tbh. I predict a 4-1 against Clippers, 4-2 against Lolckets, 4-3 against Warriors (with Tiago healthy).

[SanAntonioSpurs23]

Probably not.

We have a team led by a fake superstar. Parker is sucking more than last year. Diaw and Mills aren't playing as well, and Manu doesn't give much except TOs. ter isn't 100%, and Baynes isn't starter quality.

Unless Tim goes bat crazy this team will struggle to make it to WCF.

[GrandeDavid]

Spurs will lose in 2nd round most likely.

The only reason why I'd say they'll get past the Rockets is because it's a Houston team, and Houston teams choke. And forget the Jordanless les.

[BatManu20]

[QUOTE=Spurs9;7934967]We aren't winning anything without Tiago.[/QUOTE]

[BatManu20]

If Danny doesn't go 0/0 again like he did against the Pels last week, then we have a shot. And as always, it all hinges on health, which is an uncertainty with Splitter right now.

[CGD]

How crazy would not be if the Spurs make it to the finals without HCA, and then, with HCA, lose to Cleveland in the finals.

Also, if there was a team ripe for an upset in the first round in the west it's Houston. Spurs could get HCA assuming they can beat the clips.

[slick'81]

If anyone can do it the spurs can but make no mistake about it this series is gonna go atleast 6-7

[barbacoataco]

Sometimes I think it all comes down to Green. When he is hitting 3ptrs and zoned in on defense, it combines with Leonard to make a tough combo. Diaw is also a x-player, but when Green has the hot hand the Spurs are unstoppable.