Reply With Quote
It is TD20 as of this movie.
Posted By: JeffMasters at 3:13 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
Updated: 3:16 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
Tropical Depression 20
The tropical disturbance in the western Caribbean Sea continues with its daily cycle of ups and downs, and finally hit enough of an "up" today to be classified as Tropical Depression 20. The amount of deep convection has increased to the highest level that we've seen yet, and now covers most of the western Caribbean Sea. An upper level outflow channel has opened to the north, and one can see high cirrus clouds streaming out to the north from the center of the depression. A few spiral bands have formed, and surface pressures continue to fall. The center of the depression is near buoy 42056 about 100 miles southeast of Cancun, Mexico. A hurricane hunter aircraft is on its way to investigate the system at 2 pm EDT afternoon.
The system is expected to cross the Yucatan Peninsula today and Sunday, so probably will not have time to strengthen into a tropical storm before then. Wind shear over the system is unchanged at 5 - 10 knots today, but after crossing the Yucatan, the shear is forecast to drop below 5 knots, and the system will have 36 hours or so to intensify over the warm 29 - 30C waters of the Gulf. I expect landfall as a Category 1 hurricane, or perhaps a strong tropical storm, on the Mexican coast south of Brownsville on Tuesday.
It is TD20 as of this movie.
movie? I meant moment. Trying to do too many things at once but looks like Hook posted it as well anyhow.
Posted By: SteveGregory at 3:35 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
Updated: 7:01 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
OCTOBER 1, 2005 / 1:48 pM CDT
INITIAL RECON DATA FINDS CENTER NEAR 18.8N/86.3W
The Cyclone appears near stationary, and is intensifying...sustained winds at the buoy located 70 miles to NNE of center is reported sustained winds of
the 31mph, and gusts to 40mph. The NHC will likely officiually nbame the storm within the next hour or 2 - Stan.
Conditions favor additional intensification -- and with the system nearly stationary,over very high heat content water (SST is 86°F) Cozumel and adjacent areas may have a fairly strong tropical storm make landfall late tonight.
I'll have a full update late this afternoon.
Steve
The cyclone appears nearly stationary, and is intensifying...sustained winds at the buoy located 70 miles
to NNE of center is reported sustained winds of the 31mph, and gusts to 40mph. The NHC will likely
officially name the storm within the next hour or 2 - STAN. The RECON is still in progress, but it appears the
core vortex is about 40NM across, and MAY have a partial eyewall, although not likely.
Conditions favor additional intensification -- and with the system nearly stationary,over very high heat
content water (SST is 86°F) Cozumel and adjacent areas may have a fairly strong tropical storm make
landfall late tonight.
The 12Z GFS - indeed all the models -- did not properly initialize the cyclone, so we will have to wait till the
00Z (7PM CDT) major cycle run tonight before we can get any better guidance on the track and intensity
of the storm in the longer term. However, the most likely location for landfall of the storm next week is about
150 miles south of the Texas/Mexico border as a CAT 1 storm.
I'll have a brief update later this afternoon, and a more complete update at 10PM CDT tonight..
nevermind, i just read hook's last post. He's kicking my ass today!
Sorry Manny! I'll let you update.nevermind, i just read hook's last post. He's kicking my ass today!
Sorry Manny! I'll let you update.
No way dude. You do it, I want to play guitar.
Just make it F******ING RAIN!!!!
This isn't tropical storm/hurricane related, but it is weather related, so I thought it would be best posted here...
I'm so frickin' happy that Friday's high is going to be 78º!!!
UMMM...who cares? This is lame
Enough people care that there have been plenty of posts in here. See your ass out if you don't.
Not Stan related but, looks like we finally might get some rain today. It's pretty cloudy and gray outside right now.
It drizzled just enough to remind me that I'm completely out of windshield wiper fluid in my car.
The tropics today present a very complex picture, with many potential areas of danger for all residents along the Mexican and U.S. coast. Here's what's happening:
Tropical Storm Stan
Tropical Storm Stan is quickly re-organizing over waters of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The chances for continued intensification a are high, as Stan is over 30C waters and is positioned under a large anticyclone that will provide good outflow and wind shear values below 5 knots. Stan will probably be a Category 1 hurricane as it approaches the Mexican coast on Wednesday, and a Category 2 hurricane is not out of the question.
The forecast of a landfall in Mexico between Tampico and Veracruz on Wednesday has increased in confidence since yesterday, but is still uncertain. Stan is being driven westward at 10 mph by a strong ridge of high pressure. This ridge will gradually weaken Tuesday as a weak trough of low pressure swings across the U.S., and Stan will slow down in response. All of the models are now forecasting that the ridge will remain strong enough to carry Stan all the way to the coast. However, there is still a distinct chance that Stan may stall just before the coast, or make landfall, then pop back out over the Gulf of Mexico and re-intensify. Stan may then remain in the Gulf many days, and may eventually move north and threaten the U.S.
Complicating the forecast is the fact that a concentrated area of cloudiness has developed on the Pacific Mexican coast in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, 100 miles south of the Gulf of Mexico. This area of disturbed weather has the potential to develop into a tropical depression later today or tomorrow. Storm-storm interactions among two tropical storms are not well understood, and the development of a new tropical depression on the other side of Mexico will make the current forecasts of Stan's motion Wednesday and beyond very dubious. And to complicate matters further, a non-tropical low pressure system is forecast to form over the Gulf of Mexico by Thursday, potentially making a set of three storms that will all interact in unpredictable ways. One positive note about this development is that the upper-level winds associated with this new non-tropical low would bring significant wind shear and weaken Stan--if he is still there. If Stan is not there, at least one model (the UKMET) suggests that this non-tropical low would meander over the Gulf of Mexico for many days, and potentially acquire tropical characteristics and become a tropical storm.
The larger threat to the U.S.?
The greater threat to the U.S. may be the spinning area of intense thunderstorms about 300 miles to the east of the central Bahama Islands. This system is an upper-level low pressure system that is interacting with a surface trough of low pressure, and slowly making the transition from a cold-cored non-tropical low to a warm-cored tropical system. While the shear is a high 20 knots over the system today, the shear is expected to decrease to 10 knots tomorrow, accompanied by the formation of an anticyclone in the region. This system has the potential to become a tropical depression as early as Wednesday, as it moves slowly westward. Long range model projections indicate the Carolinas and possibly New England would be at risk from this system.
TD 21?
An low pressure system accompanied by a concentrated area of thunderstorms has developed this morning halfway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, at about 14N 38W. This system has some impressive spiral banding, and is a good bet to be Tropical Depression 21 later today. It is expected to move northward the next five days over open waters and not threaten any land areas.
Tropical Storm Otis
Tropical Storm Otis has decayed to a 40-mph tropical storm, and is forecast to remain just offshore Baja California and continue to weaken and eventually dissipate two days from now. Otis is not likely to cause any problems for Mexico or Arizona.
Jeff Masters
That front that comes through (the trof Masters speaks up) will hopefully push off the coast of Texas and basically prevent anything from coming shore here. The front keeps being pushed back to a later time by the models though, and if this continues we could see it never make it to us. I'm hoping like all for that not to happen. Temps in the 70s this weekend sounds ing AWESOME.
Texas more than likely won't see anything anytime soon. However, Mexico is going to get hit by Stan and there may be other systems off the Atlantic and in the Gulf.
Gonna be nice and cool this weekend though!
Oh, and the day 7 on the GFS looks a lot like the kind of situation that causes a lot of flooding here. Something to keep an eye on.
There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)
Posting Permissions
